MLB Streaks & Trends: Struggling Stars
Published: Jun 25, 2021
|1||Michael Brantley||.355||1||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||.441||1||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||.669|
|2||Nick Castellanos||.343||2||Max Muncy||.418||2||Fernando Tatis Jr.||.657|
|3||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||.338||3||Jesse Winker||.405||3||Shohei Ohtani||.633|
|4||Yuli Gurriel||.333||4||Bryan Reynolds||.403||4||Matt Olson||.605|
|5||Adam Frazier||.330||5||Juan Soto||.402||5||Ronald Acuna Jr.||.602|
|1||Michael Brantley||.351||1||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||.436||1||Aaron Judge||58.9|
|2||Ketel Marte||.338||2||Max Muncy||.433||2||Shohei Ohtani||57.1|
|3||Kyle Tucker||.324||3||Aaron Judge||.431||3||Rafael Devers||56.4|
|4||Aaron Judge||.322||4||Ronald Acuna Jr.||.429||T||Ronald Acuna Jr.||56.4|
|5||Nick Castellanos||.321||5||Shohei Ohtani||.423||5||Salvador Perez||56|
Kyle Schwarber, Washington
Hot remains an understatement for Schwarber over the last his last five contests:
Since moving to lead-off on June 8th, he's logged 16 games spanning 67 plate appearances with 14 runs, 12 home runs, 24 RBI and a robust .316/.388/.947 slash line. This comes with a 31.3 strikeout rate but also a .632 isolated power with a 238 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) metric. He's produced 14 barrels of his last 38 batted ball events (36.8 barrel percentage) and 20 hard hits (exit velocity 95 MPH+). Yes, he will cool off but seeing more fastballs atop the lineup ahead of Trea Turner means the power should continue.
Jake Cronenworth, San Diego
After launching his 11th home run of the season Wednesday night, Cronenworth's homered in three in a row, hit four in his last five games and five over his last eight contests. His last 26 plate appearances provide eight runs, four home runs, nine RBI and a .409/.480/1.136 slash line fueling a scorching .645 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and 320 wRC+. He also leads the Padres in multiple hit games (21) and his team hosts the Diamondbacks this weekend. Giddy up.
Carlos Correa, Houston
Not sure anyone hitting for the Astros did not score while typing this, but Correa's last six games yielded seven runs, two doubles, two home runs, eight RBI and a .429/.556/.810 slash. He generated a 52.9 hard hit percentage in this sample and a .561 wOBA. Over his last 34 contests, Correa's hitting .371 (46-for-124) with 12 doubles, nine home runs and 30 RBI playing for a contract. Guess he's motivated.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
After a strong start to the season, regression finds Bryant in the midst of a slump. His last 12 games resulted in a .081/.244/.162 slash with four runs, one home run, two RBI and a stolen base. This adds up to a minuscule 43 wRC+. Less than optimal in a walk year, but with road games in Milwaukee and Cincinnati next week, better days lie ahead.
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
A repeat offender in the not hot list and things continue to spiral downward for Torres. He looks lost at the plate and in the throes of a major slump hitting a paltry .057/.178/.086 his last 40 plate appearances with a .029 isolated power and negative 17 wRC+. Again, if possible, bench him until he shows signs of life since he's produced zero counting statistics in this stretch. This is not a typo.
Bobby Bradley, Cleveland
Welcome to 2021 in a nutshell. Last week, Bradley appeared on the hot list launching home runs with aplomb. Then, he remembered he struggles making contact and carries a 33.3 strikeout rate with one home run, two RBI his last six games spanning 24 plate appearances culminating in a .048/.167/.190 slash. Remember his teammate Amed Rosario being the hot waiver claim of late, he's also hit the skids batting .087/.160/.087 his last six games as well over 25 plate appearances. Why does anyone pitch to Jose Ramirez?
Migration to the Mean
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia
Another repeat player from last week, Bohm tied a career high with four hits on Wednesday and batting .421/450/.526 his last five games with five runs and three RBI. Better days still lie ahead:
- .244 batting average versus a .280 expected batting average (xBA) - plus 36 points
- .362 slugging percentage versus a .430 expected slugging (xSLG) - plus 99 points
- .269 wOBA versus a .325 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) - plus 56 points
D.J. LeMahieu, New York Yankees
Predicting pullback on his power from last year made sense, him hitting below .270 this season, even with less distance on baseballs does not. Pulling a few more batted ball events could unlock the door to a surge in results and he visits Fenway this weekend, so hoping the Green Monster entices him to turn on a couple of fastballs, stay tuned:
- .262 batting average versus a .289 xBA - plus 27 points
- .362 slugging percentage versus a .413 xSLG - plus 51 points
- .312 wOBA versus a .346 xwOBA - plus 34 points
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Touting a player on a team just no-hit comes with trepidation, but better days for Muncy lie in wait. He's among the league leaders in on-base average, increased his barrel rate and sweet spot percentage providing better quality of contact with improved discipline. Add it all together and:
- .262 batting average versus a .292 xBA - plus 30 points
- .525 slugging percentage versus a .587 xSLG - plus 62 points
- .404 wOBA versus a .433 xwOBA - plus 29 points