Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 2

Now that we have two full weeks’ worth of game data under our belts, we can now look at things like targets, target percentage and red zone targets with more intense scrutiny and better analysis. It’s always tough to make sound start/sit receiver decisions through the first couple of weeks because we’re still looking to see which players are the quarterback favorites and what the target pecking order is going to be. It’s easy with the high-end wideouts because you always know to start as many No. 1’s as you have, but once you start looking deeper into the player pool and further down your own team’s depth chart, the picture sometimes gets a little murky. With all of the data presented here and in the NFL Stats page here at Fantasy Alarm, things should prove to be a lot easier moving forward if you’re doing the right work.

As explained in last week’s piece, we’ll be breaking down the targets analysis into two charts. The first will be the top target numbers from Week 3 while the second will be an overall targets leaderboard. That way we should be able to weed out the one-week wonders and really see who is worth that spot on your roster.

Week 2 Target Leaders

As always, I like to give a nod to the player who saw the most targets for the week and something tells me that if the Bucs are going to look this bad, Mike Evans could very well sit atop this leaderboard week after week. Tampa’s defense looks atrocious, Doug Martin is now hurt and Jameis Winston just loves to sling the rock every chance he gets. If the team is playing from behind, we’re going to see second-half aerial assaults much in the way the Jaguars did it last year. However, for Evans to remain productive, he’s got to do a lot more than just be a target. Six catches on 17 targets is more than just a little disappointing and while not every one of those misses were his fault, he and Winston need to sync up a little better to produce more yardage and hopefully better touchdown totals. Evans is a super-talented receiver and we saw big touchdown numbers his rookie year and strong yardage last season. Now he just needs to put it all together here in Year 3.

I’m still a little in shock to see Alex Smith and the Chiefs passing the ball as often as they have these first two weeks. It’s hard to know if that will drop significantly once Jamaal Charles returns to full health, but until he does, Jeremy Maclin owners should take full advantage. While he may be the No. 1 on the team, I still view him as more of a low-end WR2 though, so don’t expect 100-yard games or big fireworks in the end zone. The volume should retain his value in PPR formats.

Just keep in mind that while DeVante Parker saw just as many targets, this team’s passing attack still goes through Jarvis Landry. We’ll start to see a bit of separation in the coming weeks, however, given the state of the Dolphins ground game right now, we could see a heavy dose of passing for the next few weeks. Too bad Ryan Tannehill can’t throw for more than 20 yards without sacrificing accuracy.

While we’re all just waiting for the other shoe to drop and we lose Dennis Pitta for the season with some sort of a hip/leg issue, we may as well take advantage of the on-field rapport that he and Joe Flacco have. They hooked up early and often before the last two seasons were lost for the tight end and while the addition of Mike Wallace has instilled more faith in the Ravens receiving corps, Flacco will use Pitta as a security blanket.

I don’t want to write off Golden Tate here, but after two weeks and 79 total pass attempts for the Lions, he is playing second fiddle to Marvin Jones in the targets pecking order. In fact, you can see in the table below that Jones is seeing close to 28-percent of the targets to just 21-percent for Tate. Neither has found the end zone yet and they’ve seen equal red zone targets, but so far the targets and yards have tilted Jones’ way and could stay that way moving forward.

Yes, if Stefon Diggs is on your waiver wire, you should put in a bid for him. The Teddy Bridgewater era is done and there’s no Shaun Hill. Not that Sam Bradford is the be-all, end-all and we all know about his extensive injury history, but while he’s healthy, he is going to be able to reach Diggs no matter where he runs to on the field. His arm is both strong and accurate and Diggs will be a regular target. You can also look at both the question marks around the running game and the injuries on the offensive line and surmise that the Vikings may be forced to turn to a much heavier passing attack as well. Norv Turner won’t have a problem with that and neither will Diggs.

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

Studying target percentage is going to be integral for you when deciding which receivers to start each week. If you have a guy who is seeing 30-percent of his team’s targets and another who is getting 20-percent, more often than not, you want the first guy. However, you can’t look at it so one-dimensionally. You also have to look at pass attempts for each team as well as red zone targets. Take Terrelle Pryor, for example. While Pryor is seeing 28.8-percent of the targets, I’d much rather start Cole Beasley whose target rate is 24.7-percent but has a quarterback who airs it out significantly more. It’s simple math, folks. I’ll round it up to make it easier. 29-percent of 60 is 17. 25-percent of 75 is 18 (almost 19). Further into the season, while the rates could stay the same, Beasley will prove to be the more valuable player with a significantly greater number of targets.

I’d also rather start Jamison Crowder over both of these guys. His target rate is lower than that of both players, but his red zone targets and red zone target percentage are much higher and could stay that way moving forward. Just something to keep in mind. Target rate is a great stat to watch, especially when deciding between players on the same team, but once you talk about players on different teams, remember to factor in everything else.

Red Zone Target Leaders

While Larry Fitzgerald leads the league in red zone targets right now, Jordy Nelson, with the significantly higher red zone target percentage, could prove to be more valuable in the long run. Carson Palmer loves Fitz, but he also has Michael Floyd and both John and Jaron Brown, not to mention David Johnson. Aaron Rodgers has other targets as well, but it’s clear that his first instinct is to look for Nelson.

I used him as an example above and will just mention him here so you don’t overlook him – Crowder could have some real nice under-the-radar value here based on his red zone work.

If DeMarco Murray is going to see such a high percentage of red zone work this season, his value, especially in PPR leagues, is going to skyrocket. Everyone was so hesitant to draft him with Derrick Henry being involved, but what he loses in overall touches could easily be made up for inside the red zone.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 3 Match-Up to Watch

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Last week’s Giants/Saints game was a huge bummer for seasonal fantasy leagues and those who refused to go contrarian in the DFS world. Could that happen again here with the Falcons and Saints? Well, anything can happen, but I seriously doubt it. Both defenses are struggling and both offenses are built on high-octane aerial attacks. Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Julio Jones and even Mohamed Sanu should be must-starts. I also really like Jacob Tamme and Coby Fleener, though I’ll tilt towards Fleener at the moment given the Falcons inability to cover the tight end in each of the first two weeks.