MLB Stolen Base Picks Today: Best Stolen Base Predictions For July 5th, 2026
Welcome back to the best stolen base picks for today and we hope everyone is having a spectacular holiday weekend. While one streak came to an end yesterday, we’re ready to start up another one. Remember, Fantasy Alarm is your one-stop shop for all sports betting and player props and we’ve got everything for MLB from the stolen bases to the home runs to strikeouts to all the best bets you need to be a successful sports bettor. Our Bet Tracker is loaded up for the day and all the articles are available to you. With the help of our new stolen base prop finder, it’s time to dive into the research and deliver the best in MLB stolen base picks today.
Also, don’t forget to check out the latest edition of the new weekly stolen base report, as that series will continue to accrue data which will help us out on a daily basis. Everything you need for both daily and weekly fantasy baseball help. And speaking of daily help…you’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. And don’t forget to also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!
Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today
Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values.
- Esteury Ruiz, Miami Marlins (+253)
- Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers (+268)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (+274)
- Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays (+287)
- Nasim Nunez, Washington Nationals (+295)
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today
When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.
- Eury Perez, Miami Marlins – 18 SB allowed
- Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins – 14 SB allowed
- Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals – 12 SB allowed
- Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers – 11 SB allowed
- Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds – 8 SB allowed
Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases
The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.
- Mickey Gasper, Boston Red Sox – 0% CS (12 att.)
- Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals – 0% CS (18 att.)
- Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves – 5% CS (21 att.)
- Austin Hedges, Cleveland Guardians – 7% CS (28 att.)
- Endy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates – 7% CS (14 att.)
- Victor Caratini, Minnesota Twins – 8% CS (36 att.)
- Carson Kelly, Chicago Cubs – 11% CS (35 att.)
- Brett Sullivan, Colorado Rockies – 12% CS (26 att.)
- Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays – 12% CS (24 att.)
Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:
Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Sunday, July 5:
Favorite Bets:
Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers (+421)
So yesterday we invested in McGonigle but got hit with a late pitching change and it was Cal Quantrill on the mound. That messed us up, especially with Quantrill’s quicker pace to the plate. Today is Rocker on the bump so we’re sticking to this play. McGonigle may have lost his four-game hit streak but he’s hit safely in eight of his last 10 with two stolen bases in that span. The lefty rookie, who owns a .415 OBP against right-handed pitching, faces Kumar Rocker who has allowed 11 stolen bases on the year and his catching tandem of Kyle Higashioka and Elias Diaz has a combined caught-stealing rate of just 20.3-percent. Once McGonigle gets on-base, neither catcher will be able to contain him.
Henry Bolte, Athletics (+448)
We’re staying with the longer odds today because this matchup is definitely a prime spot for us. Mind you, Zack Gelof at similar odds is also in play but we’re going to go with Bolte who has an elite sprint-speed that’s better than Gelof’s and a rock-solid 79-percent success rate, Yes, Gelof has a stronger success rate but he’s also just one game back from the IL. Bolte, whether he’s batting leadoff or further into the order, is on a three-game hit streak and posts a .340 wOBA against right-handed pitching. We know Eury Perez allows the most stolen bases of any pitcher in MLB and his catching tandem has just a 23.5-percent caught stealing rate. Bolte shouldn’t disappoint.
