Eury Perez Chalkboard MLB Picks Today, 7/11: Baseball Projections + More

Quick Summary of Today's Top Chalkboard MLB Picks:

• Eury Perez (MIA): OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
• Tyler Mahle (SFG): UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts

Looking for the best Chalkboard MLB picks today? After crunching the numbers and sifting through our MLB DFS projections, I’ve identified my favorite MLB player props today, and we are focusing on two of the best matchups on the board with our top MLB picks for today. With Eury Perez and Tyler Mahle, we are building a high-probability card with our best Chalkboard MLB picks for Saturday, July 11. You can also take these picks and add them to an entry with one of the many promo picks Chalkboard is offering for today,

Eury Perez Chalkboard MLB Pick: OVER 6.5 Strikeouts

Perez has gone to two tough environments (@ Athletics, @ Rockies) in his last two starts, and he’s been flat out dominant, striking out 16 batters over 12.1 IP while allowing just two hits. His slider and curveball both boast a 16+ percent swinging strike rate on the year, and when Perez pitches at home, we all need to pay attention. The numbers are far more impressive, and it’s a very enticing matchup today.

Over the last two weeks, despite a hot-swinging Chase DeLauter, the Guardians boast the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 26%, not to mention a measly .235 AVG and .296 wOBA. Furthermore, with Perez being a righty, we could see as many as seven left-handed hitters in the Cleveland lineup this afternoon, which could actually be a positive for Perez. Against lefties this year, Perez has a 28.8 K%, .201 BAA, and 0.84 HR/9. When facing lefties, he incorporates his changeup more, and against lefties this year, his changeup has a .100 BAA, .089 wOBA, and 47.8% whiff rate. Perez is pitching as well as anyone in baseball right now, and the good times should continue today.

Tyler Mahle Chalkboard MLB Pick: UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts

Since rejoining the Giants’ rotation after about a month hiatus, Mahle has come back to log a 4.40 ERA, 3.39 FIP, and 12:5 K/BB ratio across three starts (14.1 IP). He has failed to record more than five strikeouts in four straight starts, and just most recently, recorded five strikeouts against the Rockies at Coors Field on July 5. However, while that might provide some optimism heading into this matchup, and the fact that he’s been better at home than on the road, this Colorado team has been pretty good against RHP.

Over the last 30 days against RHP away from Coors Field, the Rockies have a 17.6% strikeout rate and .355 wOBA. Those are the second- and sixth-best in baseball during that span! Overall, Mahle has a 22.9 K% at home this year, but a swinging strike rate below 10% is far from ideal. I like the Rockies’ bats today, so I’m not envisioning Mahle missing a ton of bats.

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