Quick Summary of Today's Top Chalkboard MLB Picks:

Looking for the best Chalkboard MLB picks today? After crunching the numbers and sifting through our MLB DFS projections, I’ve identified my favorite MLB player props today, and we are focusing on two of the best matchups on the board with our top MLB picks for May 17th.

With Drake Baldwin and Paul Skenes, we are building a high-probability card with our best Chalkboard MLB picks for Sunday, May 17. You can also take these picks and add them to an entry with one of the MANY promo picks Chalkboard is offering for today!

 

 

 

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Chalkboard Fantasy MLB Picks Today: Sunday, 5/17

Drake Baldwin Chalkboard MLB Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases

Across his active hitting streak with sits at seven games, Baldwin is slashing .346/.414/.846 with four home runs and .500 ISO! Furthermore, during the aforementioned stretch, he’s sporting an insane 42.1% barrel rate, 73.7% hard hit rate, and .803 xSLG! He’s RAKING right now, and he loves hitting in his home park. How does a .946 OPS, .247 ISO, and 163 wRC+ sound?

Despite a little bit of wind blowing in today, I love this matchup against Boston’s Brayan Bello. Bello has struggled mightily this year, to the tune of a 6.46 ERA, 5.58 FIP, and 1.85 HR/9 across 39 IP. If you dive into some of the splits, we’ll find more advantageous data in Baldwin’s favor. Bello has a 7.11 ERA and .343 BAA on the road this season, and left-handed hitters have a .651 SLG and .460 wOBA against him on the year.

Lastly, Bello’s sinker is his primary pitch, and albeit a small sample size, Baldwin has a .364 AVG, .636 SLG, and .477 wOBA against righty sinkers in 2026.

 

Paul Skenes Chalkboard MLB Pick: Under 1.5 Walks Allowed

I’ll start with this: Paul Skenes has a 38:0 K/BB ratio over his last 32 IP. He hasn’t walked a batter in five straight starts! He’s found his groove, and is pitching like the ace everyone knows him to be. He has a 5.2% walk rate in his career in his home park, and this year, his walk rate is down at a miniscule 2.8%!

The Phillies have been decent of late on offense, but they don’t exactly take a ton of walks. They have the sixth-lowest walk rate in baseball over the last two weeks, and overall against RHP for the 2026 season, they have the third-lowest walk rate!

Skenes has done a phenomenal job in recent starts of avoiding handing out free passes, and I expect that trend to continue on (and through) Sunday.

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