Davis Martin Chalkboard MLB Picks Today, 5/4: Baseball Projections + More

Today's Analytical Core:

• Davis Martin (CWS): Over 5.5 Strikeouts
• Logan Gilbert (SEA): Under 6.5 Strikeouts

Davis Martin Chalkboard Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts

The market has not fully accounted for Davis Martin's evolution. By prioritizing breaking balls over his fastball and cutter, Martin has seen his K-rate climb from 17.3 percent to 22.9 percent. He already dominated this Angels lineup for seven strikeouts in his last start. Facing an LAA squad that leads the majors in K-rate against righties (26.2 percent), the Over on 5.5 is a high-probability play.

Logan Gilbert Chalkboard Pick: Under 6.5 Strikeouts

We are fading Logan Gilbert’s line of 6.5 due to the Braves' elite 19.9 percent strikeout rate and his own seasonal limitations. Gilbert has stayed Under this 6.5 line in four of his seven starts this season. Even in his successful outings, he has never notched more than seven strikeouts. Atlanta is one of the most difficult lineups to put away, and Gilbert’s style of inducing soft contact plays directly into their ability to put the ball in play early. Expect a solid outing, but with fewer than the seven punchouts required to hit the Over.

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