The World Series is finally here, and we're guaranteed a first-time champion as the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Milwaukee Brewers for Game 1 at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX. Milwaukee is handing the ball to NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski, while Tampa Bay surprised a lot of people by going with Nick Martinez over Drew Rasmussen. Here are our MLB best bets for Game 1, including our Rays vs. Brewers prediction, a total pick, and the best player props on the board.

MLB Best Bets Today: Rays vs. Brewers World Series Game 1 Odds

Here is the full betting line for Game 1, via DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Moneyline: Rays +162 | Brewers -198
  • Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-147) | Brewers -1.5 (+122)
  • Total: 6.5 (Over -112 | Under -108)
  • Probable Pitchers: Nick Martinez (TB) vs. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)

 

 

 

Rays vs. Brewers Prediction: Rays Moneyline (+162)

The Brewers being nearly two-dollar favorites in Game 1 feels like too much. This is the biggest price Milwaukee has carried since closing at -217 against Robbie Ray in Game 1 of the NLDS, and Nick Martinez is a much tougher draw than that. Martinez went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA this year and walked just 3.6% of the hitters he faced, so he's going to make the Brewers earn everything. He also threw six innings of two-run ball against Milwaukee during the regular season, and the Rays have won both of his postseason starts.

On the other side, Misiorowski hasn't looked like his regular-season self in October. He led the majors with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts, but he's allowed three runs on nine hits with four walks over 8.1 postseason innings and hasn't gotten through five innings in either start. His fastball sat at 102 early against the Dodgers before dropping to around 99 by the fourth and fifth, which is still elite but worth noting for a 24-year-old who has never carried this kind of workload.

The Rays are built to make Misiorowski work, as they had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball this season. They're also 3-1 on the road this postseason, with two wins in Cleveland and the clincher in the Bronx against the Yankees. Both bullpens are fully rested, and the Brewers' relievers haven't thrown a meaningful pitch in over a week. At this price, the value is on the dog.

  • Pick: Rays Moneyline (+162)

Rays vs. Brewers Prediction: Under 6.5 Runs (-108)

These are two of the best run-prevention teams in baseball, and neither lineup relies on the long ball. Both clubs finished in the bottom 10 in the majors in homers, with Milwaukee tied for 28th and Tampa Bay ranking 22nd. The Under also went 17-12-2 in Misiorowski's starts through the NLDS, and the opener only moved off 6 to 6.5 as the week went on.

The bullpens push this even further toward the Under. Milwaukee's relievers have posted a 1.33 ERA and 0.89 WHIP this postseason, and with Game 2 on Saturday followed by an off day Sunday, neither manager has any reason to hold back high-leverage arms. Kevin Cash is expected to have a quick hook with Martinez, who gave up a .309/.344/.470 slash line the third time through the order, so the Rays' pen should be taking over before the lineup can get a third look at him.

The Rays don't do much damage against velocity either. Tampa Bay was 24th in batting average against fastballs of 97 mph or higher, and Misiorowski lives at the top of that range. Expect a low-scoring, tight opener.

  • Pick: Under 6.5 Runs (-108)

 

 

 

Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today

William Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)

William Contreras has been the best hitter in the postseason, slashing .367/.457/.700 with three homers and a 212 wRC+ that leads all playoff hitters with at least 30 plate appearances. He's already piled up 21 total bases this October, and his 58.3% hard-hit rate is the best of any regular starter on either team. This isn't just a hot two weeks either, as he's slashed .329/.398/.584 with 10 homers since August 15, including the playoffs.

The matchup lines up well for him. Martinez leans heavily on his cutter, sinker, and changeup, and the Brewers were a top-five offense against cutters and changeups this season. Hitting third, Contreras should get at least two looks at Martinez before the Rays go to the bullpen. Getting plus money on a double or two hits from the hottest bat in the series is a strong price.

Jacob Misiorowski Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-131)

The Brewers have kept Misiorowski on a short leash all postseason. He was pulled after 88 pitches and four innings in Game 1 of the NLDS, then after 94 pitches and 4.1 innings in Game 1 of the NLCS. Clearing this number means getting through the sixth inning, something he hasn't come close to in October.

The Rays' contact-heavy approach should drive his pitch count up again, and Pat Murphy has every reason to go to a bullpen that's been nearly unhittable this postseason. To be fair, Misiorowski cleared 15.5 outs in 22 of his 30 regular-season starts and is coming in on 11 days of rest, so there's a real chance the Brewers stretch him out more than usual. Still, with the Sunday off day and Milwaukee's relievers rested, the safer bet is that Murphy pulls him before he records 17 outs.

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