Monday's slate is all October, with Game 2 of the NLCS in Milwaukee and Game 1 of the ALCS in St. Petersburg. Both games feature elite run prevention on the mound, and the numbers point toward low scoring and deep outings from two of the best arms in the sport. Here are today's best bets, backed by recent form, postseason history, and matchup trends.

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 10/12

Today's card features two totals and three player props. We are on the under 6.5 runs in Dodgers vs. Brewers (-101) and the Guardians team total under 2.5 runs (+100). On the player side, we like Drew Rasmussen to work deep (over 17.5 outs), Foster Griffin to allow at least two earned runs (over 1.5), and Logan Henderson to rack up strikeouts (over 5.5).

 

 

 

Dodgers vs. Brewers Prediction: Monday, October 12th

Under 6.5 Runs (-101)

Milwaukee leads the NLCS 1-0 after a 2-1 win in Game 1, and Game 2 pits one of the best postseason arms in baseball against a rookie who has been nearly untouchable at home. Yoshinobu Yamamoto carries a 2.53 ERA with 182 strikeouts across 185 innings this season and a 2.14 ERA in 11 career postseason appearances, and he held Milwaukee to two earned runs over 13 innings in two starts this year. He also threw a three-hit complete game in Game 2 of last year's NLCS in this same ballpark, and Brewers hitters are slashing just .211/.277/.328 against him in his career. Logan Henderson posted a 2.47 ERA with a 110-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 98.1 innings, owns a 1.84 ERA and 0.77 WHIP at home, and has never allowed more than three runs in a start. He has also beaten the Dodgers twice this year, allowing one run over 12 innings with 13 strikeouts. Los Angeles grounded into three double plays in Game 1 and is 2 for 22 with runners in scoring position this postseason, so with both bullpens rested and Game 1 landing on three total runs, the under at 6.5 and basically even money is the play.

Guardians vs. Rays Prediction: Monday, October 12th

Guardians Under 2.5 Runs (+100)

Tampa Bay opens the ALCS at Tropicana Field with Drew Rasmussen on the mound, and he is the kind of ace who makes a short team total very attractive. Rasmussen posted a 2.67 ERA and an AL-best 0.91 WHIP across 30 starts, and he has allowed more than two runs in only three of his last 19 starts. He carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning of ALDS Game 1 against the Yankees, finishing with eight scoreless innings, one hit and 10 strikeouts, and the Rays have won each of his last 13 starts. Cleveland's offense hit just .239 as a team this season, ranked 10th in the AL, scored only two runs in Saturday's ALDS clincher, and is without Rhys Hoskins, who is on the injured list with a back issue. The Rays also went 55-26 at home and took five of six from Cleveland during the regular season, so the Guardians are catching a rested, dominant starter in a park that has been tough on them. We will take Cleveland to stay at two runs or fewer at plus money.

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/12

Drew Rasmussen Over 17.5 Outs

Rasmussen needs to complete six innings to cash this prop, and he has done that consistently down the stretch. He averaged 5.7 innings per start for the season but has worked 6.3 innings per start over his last five turns, completing six innings in four of them. His pitch efficiency stands out, with a 1.67 walks-per-nine rate that ranks among the best in the majors, which keeps his pitch count manageable deep into games. In ALDS Game 1, he threw eight innings and 94-plus pitches, and he went 6.2 innings on 114 pitches in a late-September start at Yankee Stadium, so the Rays have shown they will let him work. With nine days of rest and a Guardians lineup that struggles to string together baserunners against him, he has a clear path to 18 outs.

Foster Griffin Over 1.5 Earned Runs

Griffin gets the Game 1 ALCS start after working in relief in ALDS Game 3, and he is stepping into a tough road environment against the best home team in the AL. The left-hander posted a 3.60 ERA this season, but his command and soft contact have wavered at the wrong time, with a 5.0 ERA and 1.66 WHIP over his last four appearances before the playoffs. He gave up 25 earned runs in his regular-season stint with Cleveland, and he is a ground-ball, contact-oriented arm with a 22 percent strikeout rate, which means traffic is a real risk against a deep Tampa Bay lineup. Even if Cleveland's bullpen plans to get him out early, he only needs to allow two earned runs to get this over home.

Logan Henderson Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Henderson has swing-and-miss stuff that plays up against this Dodgers lineup, and the numbers back it up. He struck out 110 batters across 98.1 innings this season for a 10.1 K/9 pace, and in two starts against Los Angeles this year he fanned 13 in 12 innings while allowing just one run. At American Family Field, he has been even more dominant, with a 1.84 ERA and 0.77 WHIP at home. The Dodgers struck out eight times against Milwaukee pitching in Game 1, and Henderson lasted five-plus innings in his playoff debut against San Diego before being pulled after the leadoff batter in the sixth. At his strikeout rate, 5.5 punchouts takes roughly five and a third innings, a length he has reached consistently, so the over is a strong play.