Welcome back to the MLB best bets and betting picks for Friday's Major League Baseball slate. I am giving Howard Bender a break for a couple of days. The baseball season has been wild after one month with plenty of MLB trends and stats to guide our MLB betting picks. The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox were supposed to be contenders for their division titles and each team is 10-22. The New York Yankees are in last place in the AL East while the New York Mets are now .500 after getting swept by the Detroit Tigers. The Tampa Bay Rays are 20 games above .500, the Baltimore Orioles are 21-10, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are in first place in the NL Central. Let's now dive into the top MLB picks and MLB best bets for Friday, May 5th.

 

MLB Best Bets for May 5

Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball with a 20-12 record and are in first place in the National League Central. The Blue Jays are 18-14 and trail the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East. The Blue Jays have the better starting pitcher despite what the surface stats show. Chris Bassitt has a 5.18 ERA, but most of that came in one bad start. He allowed nine runs in 3.1 innings to begin the season against the Cardinals. Since then, he has a 3.03 ERA and opponents are batting .146 against him. Rich Hill has a 4.18 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, but a 6.83 xERA. 1.9 HR/9 and a .279 batting average against. The underlying numbers are terrible for Hill and the Blue Jays right-handed bats can take advantage. Hill is allowing a slash line of .290/.345/.570  with a 5.06 ERA and 1.50 WHIP to right-handers. The Blue Jays are coming off five consecutive losses, including a four-game sweep by the Red Sox. They end the losing streak tonight. 

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Money Line (-141 on Caesars) 

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants

This isn't the same dominant Corbin Burnes version from recent seasons with a strikeout rate of 19.7% after at least 30% over the last three seasons. Still, Burnes has been better in the last four starts after struggling in his first two starts. Burnes allowed 10 earned runs in his first 9.1 innings and in the last four starts, he has allowed five earned runs (1.85 ERA) over 24.1 innings with a 21:6 K:BB ratio. The Giants lead the majors with a 27.4% strikeout rate. In his last three starts, Sean Manaea has struggled. He hasn't pitched more than four innings and allowed 11 earned runs and walked eight over nine innings.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers First Five Innings -0.5 Run Line (+105 on BetMGM)

Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals

Typically, you wouldn't want to look at a total between two bad teams, but a few things point to an over here. The Athletics are one of the worst teams we have seen in a while. They are 6-26 and allowing 7.6 runs per game. Oakland's bullpen ERA is 6.78. The Royals haven't been much better at 8-24 and are allowing 5.7 runs per game with a bullpen ERA of 5.51. Kyle Muller will start for Oakland and he hasn't been good with a 6.28 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. In 23.2 innings, he has allowed 36 hits and 19 runs, walked 14, and struck out 17. Brad Keller takes the mound for the Royals and while he has a 3.56 ERA, he has a 1.58 WHIP and walked 24 in 30.1 innings. The Royals offense has picked it up with 27 runs over their last four games. The over is 20-11-1 in Oakland games this season.

Pick: Athletics/Royals over 9.5 runs (-122 on FanDuel)

*all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned 

 
 

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