Time to get back to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for Wednesday, May 24. While we may find ourselves in a bit of a hole still, we are finding a bit more success with some MLB player props and will likely start to lean a little more in that direction to get ourselves back in the black for the season. Prop betting isn’t really my favorite, but we are seeing plus-odds in certain spots which shouldn’t be and, therefore, need to take advantage of where the books are missing the mark. We’re not going to always run five bets out per day, regularly so be careful you don’t start loading up too heavily on them as that is where things can start to get away from you a little.

  • Monday’s Record: 2-3
  • Season Record: 62-67-2
  • Bankroll: -12.33 units

We have a full 15-game slate today with an early start, so let’s get to it.

 

 

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

While the Diamondbacks’ overall numbers against lefties for the season sit middle-of-the-road, at best, a look at some of their key hitters like Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Ketel Marte tell a different story. You can even add veteran Evan Longoria to the list as all four have a .360 or higher wOBA against southpaws and now get to face Ranger Suarez who is still trying to get himself into mid-season form after missing six weeks with a left elbow strain. He’s thrown just six innings this season and has allowed seven runs with an 8:4 K:BB ratio. We expect him to struggle out of the gate today which should help the Diamondbacks to an early lead. On the other side is Zac Gallen who, if you remember, we invested heavily in for his last start against the Pirates and got burned. Real badly too. The Phillies are strong team against righthanded pitching, but I expect Gallen to bounce back into form and dominate this one early. With a chip on Gallen’s shoulder from his last start and Suarez’ struggles, we’ll look at Arizona for a lead after the first five innings.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (+115 on Caesars Sportsbook)   

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays were absolutely humiliated yesterday as the Blue Jays pounded them for 20 runs. Granted, the Rays eventually threw Luke Raley and Christian Bethancourt which led to an additional 12 runs, but to lose a game 20-1 is not something you ever want your home crowd to see. With their ace Shane McClanahan on the mound today, you can expect a much different outcome. But the focus here is going be on the Rays bats. We know McClanahan can keep the score down, so the only question is whether or not the Rays bats can wake up and put some runs up on Yusei Kikuchi. We believe they can, especially now that we’ve seen the Jays lefty get roughed up lately. He’s allowed seven earned runs over his last 8.2 innings (two starts) and he’s coughed up four home runs in that span. With the way the Rays have handled left-handed pitching this season (.395 wOBA; 159 wRC+), we expect them to bounce back. I don’t want to put bullpens in play, even though Tampa spared theirs yesterday, so we’ll stick with the first five innings, but double-down on the Rays bats with a Wander Franco prop as the shortstop has a .419 wOBA against southpaws this season and routinely keeps the ball in play.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays First 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (-125 on BetMGM)

Pick: Wander Franco over 1.5 total bases (+115 on BetMGM)

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels

Despite the fact that both pitchers, James Paxton and Tyler Anderson have been decent over their last few starts (well, just the two for Paxton, but still…), I’m expecting to see some runs scored today. Both offenses have a .340 wOBA against lefties this season, they rank near the top in runs-created and neither team falls victim to heavy strikeouts. Anderson pitches to a ton of contact and Paxton’s peripherals scream regression. Not only does that have me looking at the over in this one, it also has me eyeballing some player props. Justin Turner, to be specific. He’s gone hitless in his last two games since returning from knee soreness, but prior to that, he had six hits in his previous four. He’s got a .390 wOBA with a .218 ISO against lefties this season and he is VERY familiar with Anderson, against whom he is 18-for-36 with three home runs and a .571wOBA. I’m betting he rounds back into form tonight against a familiar foe.

Pick: Red Sox/Angels over 9 runs (-120 on BetMGM)

Pick: Justin Turner over 1.5 total bases (+100 on BetMGM)

*all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned