The first half of the 2023 MLB season is coming to a close soon and while everyone is busy showering Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna with praise and early votes for the MVP awards, we are staying locked on the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks finishing the month of June on a high note. Those who have been recently riding the energy of the Cincinnati Reds are going to have to find another team to latch onto as, not only have the betting odds tightened up, but we are starting to see those young superstars come back down to Earth. Baseball, and betting baseball for that matter, is all about ebb and flow. Streaks come and go and as we always say, you ride the wave until it breaks. But once it breaks, you have to learn to let go as opposed to coming right back to it. Just ask those who bet the Atlanta Braves and even the Baltimore Orioles against the Reds over the past few days. So with a couple of early starts today, let’s get to the action.

  • Monday’s Record: 2-2-1
  • Season Record: 95-95-3
  • Bankroll: -10.70 units
 

 

MLB Best Bets for June 28

Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles

When I said you have to ride the wave until it breaks, I meant it and there is no reason to bet the Reds right now. Everyone wants to as Elly De La Cruz and the rest of the kids are exciting to watch, but they lost three straight and barely got by Baltimore with a 3-1 win yesterday. The hitters have cooled off and, while Kyle Gibson is no great shakes, he’s still a veteran hurler capable of tossing a quality start on any given day. But we’re not focusing on the Reds actually. We’re looking at the Orioles matching up against Luke Weaver and his 6.86 overall ERA, his 1.59 WHIP and the fact that he’s coughed up 20 earned runs over his last 16.2 innings (four starts). The Orioles haven’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball, but they put 10 runs up on the Reds two nights ago and their .322 wOBA and .174 ISO will play very nicely against Weaver and his weak offerings. The friendly confines of Camden Yards should help contribute as well so let’s back those Baltimore bats today.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles Team Total over 5 runs (-118 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Pick: Cedric Mullins over 1.5 total bases (-105 on BetMGM)

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers

While the Rangers lost two of three to the New York Yankees and then dropped their first game in this series to the lowly Tigers, there was an immediate bounce-back yesterday with an 8-3 drubbing and now the team with the second-highest wOBA (.363) and second-highest wRC+ (134) against southpaws take on Joey Wentz and his 6.72 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Wentz had back-to-back decent starts, but both came against a Twins lineup that ranks as the third-worst team against lefties, so I’m not buying it at all. I think Texas wins and I think it’s a blowout. Dane Dunning has been a serviceable starter for Texas and should have no trouble keeping the Tigers bats in line, so while we usually like to favor the road team on a negative run line, there is just too much confidence in Texas right now.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 run line (-110 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Pick: Jonah Heim over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI over 1.5 (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals

The Royals have decided to give lefty Austin Cox the start today and while he has yet to allow a run this season and his overall numbers look great, he’s a bullpen arm who hasn’t gone more than 3.2 innings in any appearance this season. Maybe he limits the Guardians early, but he’s not going deep into this game and that leaves the Royals bullpen for us to focus on -- a bullpen that has just one other lefty, Aroldis Chapman. Kansas City’s pen has a 4.95 ERA over its last seven days and while the Guardians offense hasn’t been great, they should be able to do enough to grab a lead and hold it. Cleveland throws southpaw Logan Allen against a Royals team that owns a .303 wOBA with a 24.4-percent K-rate against lefties. On top of that, the Royals, on the whole, have just a .292 wOBA over the past week and are fanning at a 28.4-percent clip

Pick: Cleveland Guardians Money Line (-130 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Pick: Logan Allen over 4.5 strikeouts (-102 on Caesars Sportsbook)