We are in the final week of the first half of the 2023 MLB season and we are looking to close it out on a high note for the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks. We enjoyed a rock-solid day on Monday thanks to the Los Angeles Angels pushing up Jaime Barria on short rest and, of course, the Atlanta Braves continued to roll on. The starting pitching looks a little gruesome today and you can see that in most of the betting odds, both money line and game totals. Pitchers tend to get a little worn down at the mid-point of the season, but that doesn’t mean we’re solely taking the over in our daily betting picks today. Or does it? It’s a nice, full slate of games but there is one early start, so let’s get to the action.

  • Monday’s Record: 3-1
  • Season Record: 108-102-4
  • Bankroll: -6.52
 

 

MLB Best Bets for July 5

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

The “or does it” from above is ringing in my ears, so let’s start in Minnesota where righty Pablo Lopez is sporting a dismal 5.94 ERA at home. Granted, the Royals are not an intimidating lineup and their overall performance against righties, along with recent offensive production, has been less than stellar, but we’ve got some familiarity here as this will be the third time Lopez has met the Royals this season. His first outing was on the road and he was dominant, but the Royals saw him in Minnesota a month later and beat him up for six runs in six innings. Lopez is coming off back-to-back quality starts, but his walk rate is up and we’ve watched his WHIP steadily climb in that span. Can the Royals get to him again? It looks like they can do some damage here. On the other side, rookie righthander Alec Marsh takes the mound against a Twins team that has won four of its last five games and has averaged more than five runs per game in that span. They may be striking out a little too much, but they are still producing at the plate.

Pick: Royals/Twins over 8.5 runs (-105 on BetMGM)

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

We’ve seen 27 runs scored through the first two games of this series and, based off the Vegas odds, the majority of the world thinks we’re in for another barnburner. However, the difference between this game and the first two is the starting pitching. Neither team put it’s best foot forward in the first two games, but now we get Justin Steele taking on Adrians Houser. The clear advantage goes to the Cubs as Steele is not only looking to finish off the first half on a high note, but he’s also hoping to notch his 10th win and receive the start for the All-Star game, with Clayton Kershaw landing on the IL. Zac Gallen might get the nod, but Steele’s current 2.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP definitely put him in the conversation. He shut down the Brewers for six innings back on Opening Day and their season has continued to decline as they’ve lost their hold on the division lead and own the seventh-worst wOBA against righties (.304) with a 24.3-percent strikeout rate. Houser has had his ups and downs this season but he’s allowed just three runs over his last 11 innings and none of the Cubs have the familiarity with him that would make you worry about another big explosion of runs. With Steele at the top of his game, even if the Cubs put up some runs, I’m just not buying this run total.

Pick: Cubs/Brewers under 8.5 runs (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Pick: Justin Steele over 5.5 strikeouts (-134 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers

While the Dodgers have lost three of their last four games, I simply don’t have any faith in Pirates starter Osvaldo Bido keeping the totals down early in this game. He had some success through his first three big-league starts, but the Brewers manhandled him during his last outing and rang up four runs over 3.1 innings. Bido doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, as evidenced by his 6.3-percent swinging-strike rate, and the Dodgers are putting everything successfully in-play right now, posting a .366 BABIP with a .360 wOBA over the past week. This offense has too much firepower for them to be held down and we’ll bank on some strong run production against Bido and an overworked bullpen.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers team total over 5.5 runs (+100 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Pick: J.D. Martinez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120 on BetMGM)