The clock is ticking on the 2023 MLB season and we are nearly at the official mid-point of the season with the All-Star break just about a week away. The MLB Bet Bets and Betting picks have been grinding away and we’ll keep going strong until the break and see if we can’t finish the first half on a positive note. I’ve been chipping away at my own personal deficit from this column by adding in a number of MLB prop bets and that seems to be helping augment our play whether you’ve chosen to bet them straight-up or tie them into a same game parlay. We’ve got an abbreviated slate here on Monday, so let’s just dive in and see what MLB bets for today look good.

  • Saturday’s Record: 3-2
  • Season Record: 105-101-4
  • Bankroll: -8.38 units
 

 

MLB Best Bets for July 3

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

While Twins starter Joe Ryan has had some recent ups and downs, most recently getting annihilated by the Atlanta Braves, this is a much different situation against the Royals. Not only does Kansas City have the second-lowest team wOBA against righthanded pitching (.289) for the season, but they’ve been ice cold at the plate with a .263 wOBA and .052 ISO over the last week. They’re also striking out 24.4-percent against righties, so that should help our cause for what we want to bet today. The Royals are throwing lefty Austin Cox who has been moved out of the bullpen in the wake of some of their pitching injuries. He struggled against Cleveland his last time out and failed to pitch out of the fourth inning. We’ll see how long he goes, but it should help that the Twins have a .291 wOBA with a 26.5-percent strikeout rate against lefties. We’re not expecting Cox to dominate the Twins lineup, but we also don’t have a lot of confidence in Minnesota to put up big numbers based on their struggles this season. Even the struggles of the Royals bullpen are giving us enough concern to stray from betting the under.

Pick: Royals/Twins under 9 runs (-105 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres

While some sites have Blake Snell listed as the Padres starter, the books have it listed as undecided so that affects some of the lines, obviously. But in this case here, we aren’t even concerned with who is pitching for San Diego. Instead, we are going to stay focused on the fact that the Angels are giving Shohei Ohtani an extra day to let his cracked fingernail heal and that means they are pushing righthander Jaime Barria to pitch tonight on four-days rest. Lefthanded hitters are crushing him this season with a .345 wOBA and righties are hitting for power against him. The Padres may have lost seven of their last 10 games, but they are averaging 5.5 runs per game in that span. With Barria on short rest and the Padres back at home, we expect them to put some runs on the board tonight.

Pick: San Diego Padres team total over 4.5 runs (+100 on Draft Kings Sportsbook)

Pick: Jake Cronenworth over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)*

*This player prop is more gut feeling than anything else. I am betting it on its own, but I could certainly understand you being a little gun-shy with Cronenworth.

Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians

I know everyone loves Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams and in his last outing, he blanked the Royals for seven innings, but while this kid may have a bright future, this Braves lineup is absolutely ridiculous right now. Not only have they won eight in a row, but they’ve also won 16 of their last 17 games and have averaged 7.65 runs per game over that span. That’s just ridiculous. They lead the league in every offensive category (including nose hair) against righthanded pitching and they have a .415 wOBA with a .372 ISO over the past week. Again, just ridiculous. Williams may be a high-end prospect but no one wants a piece of this Braves lineup. On the other side, the Braves are throwing Bryce Elder who may not be Mr. Strikeout, but he’s thrown three-straight quality starts and has given up just three earned runs over his last 19 innings. Expect Atlanta to jump out to an early lead and hold it, at least through the first five innings. They’ll probably win outright, but there’s not a lot of value on the money line.

Pick: Atlanta Braves 1st 5 Innings -0.5 run line (-105 on BetMGM)