The MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks took a stumble yesterday after three-straight winning days, but we still remain in the black. We couldn’t make the run-line in the Toronto Blue Jays game and the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen took an uncharacteristic stumble and allowed four runs in the eighth and ninth innings to kill the under on our bet. We’ll happily take the push on that  Pittsburgh Pirates/Washington Nationals game so we’re down just two units from yesterday and still ahead on the season. The ups and downs are expected, just so long as we remain in the black. OK, maybe that’s not true. We want to keep building that bankroll so we can take a few extra chances during the regular season. I keep having to remind myself, though, that we’re not even out of April yet. We’re about to be, but not yet. We’ll go through today’s action and see how we finish with our baseball bets for the first month. Then we can start thinking about some same game parlays and such.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 0-2-1
  • Season Record: 46-36-2
  • Bankroll: +4.19 units

With the Atlanta Braves/New York Mets game already postponed, we’ve got 14 games to look at today.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 30 

Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins

We’re going to get started with the first game of the day as the Cubs look to avoid a sweep in Miami with lefty Justin Steele on the mound. The Marlins do hit lefties well with a .342 OBA this season, but they’re not hitting for much in the way of power and they’re striking out nearly 25-percent of the time still. Through five starts this season, Steele hasn’t allowed more than two runs in an outing and his 0.89 WHIP indicates that he’s not allowing too many base-runners, even allowing two walks per appearance. Steele’s 54-percent ground ball rate should play very nicely against the Marlins who are mashing everything into the dirt against southpaws, posting a 45.9-percent ground ball rate, seventh-highest in the league. For the Marlins, they’ve got Bryan Hoeing and his 9.82 ERA getting another turn in the rotation. The Cubs bats woke up too late yesterday to win the game. They are 16-10 against the run line and won’t make the same mistake twice.

Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5 Run Line (+105 on BetMGM)

Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox

After uncharacteristically dropping two-straight to the Astros, the Rays have come to the south side of Chicago and completely whupped the White Sox. They’ve won three-straight by a combined total of 29-10 and have cracked double-digit runs in two of them. Chicago righthander Mike Clevinger has had a rocky start to the season and is coming off a shellacking by the Blue Jays after getting yanked after three innings against the Phillies the start before. Now it’s the Rays? This one might hurt a little as the Rays rank first in nearly every offensive category (including nose hair) against righthanded pitching. They’ll also have Drew Rasmussen on the bump, who has had a pair of rough outings against the Astros and Blue Jays, but remains a heavy favorite in this one. Chicago ranks 27th with a .290 wOBA against righties and they whiff 23-percent of the time. With the Rays atop the league with a 19-9 record against the run line this season, we’ll back Rasmussen and their bats.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Run Line (-115 on DK Sportsbook)

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

These teams have combined for double-digit runs in three-straight games here in Detroit which shook the books a little after watching them combine for no more than six runs per game in their three-game set back in Baltimore last week. The familiarity is obviously on full display and seeing both Kyle Bradish and Spencer Turnbull on the bump today, makes me think the runs are going to keep piling up, despite the fact that neither took the ball in a game during the last series. While the Tigers don’t have strong numbers against righties, Bradish is coming off a beating by the hands of the Red Sox and his command just isn’t where it needs to be at this point. Remember, he didn’t start the season on-time and he’s made two starts and just one relief appearance, posting a 6.30 ERA with a 2.00 WHIP. Even half those numbers would be better but still fine for us if we want to bet the over which, we do. Turnbull is also a pitcher who can get blown up and though he settled down a little bit in his last couple of outings, he still walks too many guys and pitches to a lot of contact. And once the Orioles push him out, they get the Detroit bullpen which is struggling over their last seven days.

Pick: Orioles/Tigers over 8.5 runs (-105 on BetMGM)

*all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned