ADP analysis can give you an idea of when players are coming off the board and where the fantasy community is currently valuing each player. You can use this information to help build your draft strategy. For the first edition of the ADP analysis and draft strategy report, we will focus on the top five players at each position according to their current ADP not including defense or kickers.  Beside each player is their current ADP for some of the main sites. The focus will be on why they are getting drafted in the position they are, and if they warrant that selection. You will notice that, as usual, RBs and WRs are coming off the board well before QBs and TEs. 

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers (23.1 Yahoo) (20.9 ESPN) (23.85 NFL.com) Little surprise here, as Rodgers as flown off the board early for a long time. Now age 33, Rodgers is in line for another monster season. The number one QB comes at a hefty price, but having Rodgers allows fantasy owners to just sit back and relax at the QB position and watch the points pile up.

Tom Brady (27.8 Yahoo) (22.9 ESPN) (28.43 NFL.com)  It is remarkable that a QB who will be 40 years old this season is the second QB off the board, but how can you argue it. Fresh off a 3554 yard passing season with a 28-2 TD-INT ratio in just 12 games, Brady and the Pats offense is still unstoppable. There is little reason to believe Brady won’t finish inside the top-3 of QBs.

Drew Brees (35.5 Yahoo) (38.2 ESPN) (43.44 NFL.com) Follows the trend of veteran QBs reigning at the top of the draft. Brees now 38, finished 2016 with 5208 yards passing and 37 touchdowns. Brees has been a fantasy monster since 2008, and fantasy owners believe another big year is on the way. The Saints did lose #1 WR Brandon Cooks, and added RB Adrian Pederson, so there is a chance at regression for Brees.

Matt Ryan (48.7 Yahoo) (44.2 ESPN) (49.17 NFL.com) is coming off an MVP season in which he was also the MVP of the fantasy world. Ryan was a late round QB in 2016, but after posting career highs across the board, now finds himself going fourth overall at the position. There are some reasons to be skeptical here. Ryan is a nine year veteran who had never posted above 4719 yards or 32 touchdowns prior to firing up 4944 yards and 38 touchdowns in 2016. He had also thrown 12+ interceptions five years straight prior to tossing just 7 last season.

Andrew Luck (44.5 Yahoo) (57.7 ESPN) (52.10 NFL.com) rounds out the top-5 for the position. Luck threw for 4240 yards and 31 touchdowns in 2016 and the Colts will lean heavily on their passing game once again in 2017. A weak backfield could have some negative effect on Luck, who will likely be looking at many pass defense coverage’s, with not much of a ground game threat. The high volume does give Luck some nice upside for a big season.

Running Backs

David Johnson (1.2 Yahoo) (2.0 ESPN) (1.31 NFL.com) A no-brainer pick after the first two seasons of Johnson’s career. Last season Johnson piled up 2118 total yards, 20 total touchdowns, and 80 receptions. He will once again be the focal point of the Cardinals offense, and with no previous injury history, he is an easy guy to trust with the first overall pick.

Le’Veon Bell (2.3 Yahoo) (1.7 ESPN) (2.42 NFL.com) Another no-brainer pick. Bell, like Johnson, racks up the stats both rushing and receiving. In 2016 he had 1884 total yards, 9 total touchdowns, and 75 receptions in just 12 games. Bell does carry some previous injury and suspension concerns which is likely the reason he is going second off the board and not first. He will once again be the do everything back for the Steelers in a high-powered offense.

Ezekiel Elliott (2.9 Yahoo) (3.3 ESPN) (2.98 NFL.com) Coming off a stellar rookie campaign is coming off the board both third for RBs and third overall. Elliott led the NFL in rushing by over 300 yards in 2016 and plays behind a top-notch offensive line. His lack of receptions (32 in 2016) likely put him behind the top two guys, but fantasy owners will love landing a talent like Elliott.

LeSean McCoy (8.0 Yahoo) (8.7 ESPN) (8.38 NFL.com)Bounced back from an underwhelming 2015 with a strong 2016 season in  which he produced 1623 total yards and 14 total touchdowns. He also added a nice boost to PPR leagues with 50 receptions. McCoy is the oldest back on this list and heading into his age 29 season, but based on his current ADP fantasy owners have no fear of regression.

Jordan Howard (9.9 Yahoo) (17.0 ESPN) (13.89 NFL.com) Finished second in the league with 1313 rushing yards in 2016. He will once again be a big part of a rebuilding Bears offense, but teams may stack the box against them on defense and try to make the passing game beat them. Howard will need to find the end zone more (7 touchdowns in 2016) and do more in the passing game (29 receptions) to have a big 2017 season. ESPN users are not digging Howard as he is currently the eighth RB off the board.

Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown (4.3 Yahoo) (3.9 ESPN) (4.47 NFL.com) Is a clear-cut number one choice among WRs, and the current ADP agrees. Fresh off a 106 reception, 1284 yard, 12 touchdown season, there is little reason to think Brown won’t finish as the top WR for the 2017 season. He is the best receiver in standard leagues and gets an even bigger boost in PPR formats.

Julio Jones (6.2 Yahoo) (5.7 ESPN) (5.58 NFL.com) Comes in at number 2 for WRs in 2/3 of the different sites. Jones finished second in the league in receiving yards in 2016, despite missing two games. If Jones can improve on a low touchdown total (6) he could possibly battle for the most points amongst WRs in standard leagues.

Odell Beckham Jr. (5.6 Yahoo) (6.6 ESPN) (6.65 NFL.com) Continues to build on one of the best starts to a career for a WR in NFL history. He has started his career with three straight seasons of 90+ receptions, 1300 yards+, and 10+ touchdowns. He should be in line for another monster season, and should see less double teams with the addition of Brandon Marshall.

Mike Evans (9.1 Yahoo) (8.8 ESPN) (8.29 NFL.com) Had a career year last season posting 96 receptions, 1321 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Evans has developed a strong chemistry with QB Jameis Winston and will once again be a big time WR. He could see a decrease from his league-high 173 targets last season with the addition of DeSean Jackson.

A.J. Green (12.0 Yahoo) (10.1 ESPN) (13.24 NFL.com) Was on pace to lead the league in receiving yards prior to going down with injury with six games left to go. He got injured on his first target of the tenth game, so really Green managed to pile up 964 yards in just 9 games. He will once again be a huge part of the Bengals offense as Dalton’s go to man.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski (24.4 Yahoo) (19.1 ESPN) (21.80 NFL.com) The number one TE comes at steep price, currently going in the second round around pick 20 (about 15-20 picks before the second TE). He is completely worth the selection if he can stay healthy, but can he? That’s a different discussion, as Gronk hasn’t played a full 16 games in his last five seasons.

Jordan Reed (41.9 Yahoo) (31.8 ESPN) (45.98 NFL.com) Is coming off the board second in 2/3 sites and getting a lot of love on ESPN. Reed, much like Gronk, is an outstanding talent who can’t stay healthy. Reed has yet to play a full 16 game season in his four year career, already missing a total of 18 games. When drafting Reed, be prepared for time missed.

Travis Kelce (42.7 Yahoo) (43.3 ESPN) (44.06 NFL.com) Was the best TE during the 2016 season piling up 85 receptions, 1125 yards, and just 4 touchdowns. Given his durability (has never missed a game in his three year career) it is a bit surprising to see Reed coming off the board before Kelce. He has continuously gotten better each year of his career.

Greg Olsen (46.9 Yahoo) (44.1 ESPN) (48.60 NFL.com) Had another big season in 2016, his third straight season of 70+ receptions, 1000+ yards, and 3+ touchdowns. Olsen, much like Kelce, is as durable as they come. He has played 16 games nine straight seasons. He is starting to get up in age though, as he will be 32 this season.

Jimmy Graham (55.1 Yahoo) (75.2 ESPN) (55.94 NFL.com) Had a bounce back season for the Seahawks and nearly eclipsed 1000 yards finishing with 923. Graham is currently going about a round later than Reed, Kelce, and Olsen on 2/3 sites, but is seeing no love on ESPN. He is currently going about 30 picks lower on ESPN and could be a nice value selection on that site.