What is up, Fantasy Alarm family? We are back with another round of MLB strikeout props today, digging into the best pitcher K picks on the board for Monday, July 20. From betting odds and over/under strikeout lines to season stats, recent form, and matchup splits against lefties and righties, this is your one-stop guide to today's strikeout prop value. For the full up-to-the-minute board, run these matchups through our Daily Strikeout Prop Finder and shop the market with our MLB Odds Finder before locking anything in. Let us get into today's best MLB strikeout picks.

Best MLB Strikeout Props Today

Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)

The matchup for Ryan today is a good one to open the second half with. Ryan himself has excellent strikeout numbers this season, boasting a 10.4 K/9 and a 28.4% strikeout rate, and he enters fully rested after closing the first half with six strikeouts over six innings against the Angels before adding a scoreless frame in the All-Star Game. Today he draws a Cleveland lineup that sits around the middle of the pack against right-handed pitching this season, but the Guardians have been noticeably worse over the past two weeks, with their strikeout rate climbing to 28.2%. Ryan has also gone over this total in seven of his last ten starts, and the line is sitting at just -110 on the over. Let's ride the Twins' ace here tonight.

George Kirby Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)

The matchup for Kirby today cuts against the raw opponent numbers, and that's exactly the point. Cincinnati actually owns the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching this season at 24.8%, and that number has held up over the past two weeks at 24.7%. But Kirby simply isn't built to cash in on that kind of matchup. He has walked just 24 batters in 110 innings this season on the back of an 8.0 K/9, and that elite command is actually the reason to fade the total rather than chase it. Kirby lives in the strike zone by design; he'd rather get ahead and let hitters put the ball in play early in the count than work deep counts hunting for chases, which is the exact opposite approach of a swing-and-miss arm trying to rack up strikeouts. That means more early contact and quicker outs, not extra punchouts, even against a lineup that does chase strikeouts elsewhere on the schedule. Kirby has gone under this total in six of his last ten starts, and the line sits at plus money on the under. Let's take the Mariners' control artist to stay below the total tonight.

Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)

The matchup for Ashcraft today is one of the best on the board. Not only does Ashcraft himself have stellar strikeout numbers this season, boasting a 10.2 K/9 and a near 28% strikeout rate, but today he draws a New York Yankees lineup that has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching this season, and they've been even worse over the past two weeks, with the strikeout rate topping 25%. Ashcraft has also gone over this total in six of his last ten starts, and the line is sitting at just -115 on the over. Let's ride the Pirates' young righty here this evening.

Payton Tolle Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)

The matchup for Tolle today lines up nicely on paper. Tolle brings emerging swing-and-miss stuff into tonight, sitting at a 9.3 K/9 and a 25.5% strikeout rate, and he was still piling up strikeouts even in an intentionally shortened final start before the break, fanning seven in just 3.2 innings against the Mets. Today he draws a Baltimore lineup that carries the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching this season at 25.4%, and that number has climbed even further over the past two weeks to 27.6%. Tolle has cleared this total in four of his last ten starts, so the recent trend isn't overwhelming, but the matchup and his own emerging stuff make the plus-money price worth taking. Let's back the Red Sox rookie here tonight.

 

 

 

Pitcher Strikeout Projections vs Betting Lines

Every strikeout prop on the board gets measured against season-long performance, recent form, and opponent tendencies before it ever makes this column. Betting lines move for a reason, and our job is to find where the market has not fully priced in a matchup edge. That is the foundation of every pick you see above.

Highest Strikeout Upside Pitchers Today

Best Matchups For Strikeouts Today

RHP getting favorable matchups:

LHP getting favorable matchups:

 

 

 

Strikeout Props to Avoid Today

Cristopher Sanchez vs Dodgers

The matchup for Sanchez today is trickier than his season-long numbers suggest. Sanchez owns a spectacular 2.62 ERA and a 27.4% strikeout rate, grading as a top-five pitcher in baseball by leading projection systems, but he's been far from himself lately, getting rocked for 11 runs across two starts earlier this month before getting touched up for three runs in a single inning of the All-Star Game. Today he draws a Los Angeles lineup that carries the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching this season at just 20.1%, one of the most contact-oriented lineups anywhere. Sanchez has split even on the over and under across his last ten starts, and the market already has the under priced at -125. Let's fade the Phillies' ace and lean away from this number tonight.

Today's Best MLB Strikeout Parlay (+1431)

Stack the four picks above into a same game parlay, and you are looking at combined plus money value across a slate full of favorable strikeout matchups.

Pitcher

Team

Opponent

Line

Target Pick

Odds

Season ERA

Season Record

Joe RyanMINCLE6.5Over-1102.856-5
George KirbySEACIN6.5Under+1003.767-8
Braxton AshcraftPITNYY6.5Over-1153.499-3
Payton TolleBOSBAL6.5Over+1103.115-6

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