Welcome back to today’s stolen base prop article. If you’ve been tailing, then you’ve been sitting pretty with our wins so far. It’s not an everyday occurrence, but given the odds, we are getting on a stolen base, our winnings are more than making up for a loss here and there. Take yesterday’s SB prop article – while we missed on Chandler Simpson against a highly vulnerable Eury Perez, we hit with Xavier Edwards at +324, thanks to our research leading us to targeting Rays catcher Nick Fortes. Profit is profit, and when we hit again today, we’re pushed even further into the black. Remember, stolen base props are a high-variance market similar to home run props, which Mark Lammey has been crushing on the regular, so do yourself a favor and check out today’s article. We’re simply going to appreciate the wins and maintain the process. Let’s dive into the research first, and then let’s get to the MLB stolen base picks today.

Also, don’t forget to check out my new weekly stolen base report, as that series will continue to accrue data, which will help us out on a daily basis. And speaking of daily help…you’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. And don’t forget to also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today

Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities, and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below, but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values. 

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

 

 

 

Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today

When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases

The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:

Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Monday, May 18:

Favorite Bets: 

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (+266) – Giants southpaw Robbie Ray has allowed seven stolen bases this season, tied for second-most allowed by a pitcher on today’s slate and the loss of Patrick Bailey (traded to Cleveland) leaves them with Jesus Rodriguez who has yet to catch a base-stealer in six attempts and Daniel Susac, who just got called up from Triple-A and is too green for any relevant data. Carroll, who owns a .478 wOBA and .462 OBP against lefties this season, has swiped three of his six stolen bases against them and is sporting an 85.7-percent success rate.

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (+298) – In spite of Jon Impemba and Mark Lammey talking up the over for Shane McClanahan’s strikeout prop on today’s Betting Playbook Show, I’m going to lean into some lefty-on-lefty crime here and target Henderson on the basepaths with McClanahan allowing seven stolen bases this season, second-highest on the slate. Yes, Henderson is striking out 26.3 percent of the time against southpaws, but he’s also posting a .329 wOBA against them and has six hits over his last three games (13 AB). But more importantly, the Rays have one of the worst tandems behind the plate for throwing out runners. We cashed against Nick Fortes yesterday, and even if it’s Hunter Feduccia behind the plate, he’s only got a 16.7-percent caught-stealing rate. 

Longshot:

Travis Bazzana, Cleveland Guardians (+444) – Most people will turn to Jose Ramirez, which obviously makes sense, but for our longer odds, we’re going to turn to the rookie and make our lefty-on-lefty crime picks a trifecta. Tigers lefty, Framber Valdez, has allowed eight stolen bases this season, while his catcher, Dillon Dingler, has just a 19-percent caught-stealing success rate in 16 attempts. Bazzana, currently riding a four-game hit streak,  is posting a .388 wOBA with a 13.6-percent walk-rate and .409 OBP against lefties this season. Couple that with an 85.7-percent success rate on the bases, and we’ve got a nice longshot bet.