It was a quiet day for us if you were tailing yesterday’s stolen base props article. We were smart to target Guardians lefty Joey Cantillo as multiple Reds swiped bags against him, though Elly De La Cruz was not one of them. Bobby Witt was caught stealing with Pedro Pages behind the dish and it was another failed attempt to use Chandler Simpson. Funny enough, though, if we learned anything from the first SB prop piece we did, we should be going back to the Rays with Eury Perez on the bump for the Miami Marlins. Remember, stolen base props are a high-variance market similar to home run props, which Mark Lammey has been crushing on the regular. We’re simply going to appreciate the wins and maintain the process. Let’s dive into the research first and then let’s get to the MLB stolen base picks today.

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Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today

Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values. 

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

 

 

 

Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today

When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

 

 

 

Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases

The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:

Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Sunday, May 17:

Favorite Bets

Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays (+145)

Yes, we’re going to stay with Simpson even though he let us down yesterday. Everyone is running wild on the Marlins right now and most are having tremendous success. Liam Hicks has just a 10-percent caught stealing rate off 20 attempts and Joe Mack isn’t much better with a 14-percent CS rate over seven attempts. With Marlins righthander Eury Perez allowing a league-high 16 stolen bases on the season and having command issues which have pushed his walk-rate to 11.6-percent, we’re going to lock onto Simpson who is posting a .350 wOBA with a .380 OBP and 12 of his 14 steals against righthanders.

 

 

 

Longshot Bet

Xavier Edwards, Miami Marlins (+324)

As you read up top, Rays starter Drew Rasmussen, a righthander, has allowed six stolen bases this season which is second-most on the day’s slate. Edwards is sitting in the leadoff spot today posting a .385 wOBA with a .403 OBP and 13.4-percent walk rate against righties. Best of all, Nick Fortes is behind the plate for Tampa Bay and his eight-percent caught stealing rate is one of the lowest in the majors among catchers with at least 10 stolen base attempts against him. I’m locking in Edwards today and if you wanted to fish for even bigger odds, check out Jakob Marsee at +450. His on-base work against righties hasn’t been as strong as Edwards’, but when he does get on-base, he’s running, especially against Fortes.