MLB Stolen Base Picks Today: Best Stolen Base Predictions For July 9th, 2026
Are you ready for the best stolen base picks for today? In a high-variance market like this, it can be tough sledding at times. Sometimes you have days when there are very few stolen bases, and sometimes, you are invested in the right situation, but it’s not your guy who delivers. That’s what happened with yesterday’s picks as CJ Abrams failed to steal a base, but both James Wood and Luis Garcia Jr. did. We knew the Astros were vulnerable, and we were right. Sort of. I know, there are no moral victories in betting, but we know our process is good. Our other pick, Trea Turner, got a day off, apparently, so at least we didn’t lose there. Let’s turn it around with today’s stolen base action.
Remember, Fantasy Alarm is your one-stop shop for all sports betting and player props, and we’ve got everything for MLB, from the stolen bases to the home runs to strikeouts to all the best bets you need to be a successful sports bettor. Our Bet Tracker is loaded up for the day, and all the articles are available to you. With the help of our new stolen base prop finder, it’s time to dive into the research and deliver the best in MLB stolen base picks today.
Also, don’t forget to check out the latest edition of the new weekly stolen base report, as that series will continue to accrue data, which will help us out on a daily basis. Everything you need for both daily and weekly fantasy baseball help. And speaking of daily help…you’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. And don’t forget to also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!
Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today
Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities, and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below, but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values.
- Jose Caballero, New York Yankees (+157)
- Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (+221)
- Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays (+245)
- Tyler Tolbert, Kansas City Royals (+245)
- Jasson Dominguez, New York Yankees (+248)
- Jazz Chisholm, New York Yankees (+249)
- Jake Mangum, Pittsburgh Pirates (+251)
- Bobby Witt, Kansas City Royals (+277)
- Fernando Tatis, Jr., San Diego Padres (+289)
- Victor Robles, Seattle Mariners (+299)
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today
When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.
- Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays – 15 SB allowed
- Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers – 13 SB allowed
- Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates – 11 SB allowed
- Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies – 10 SB allowed
- Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels – 10 SB allowed
Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases
The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.
- Mickey Gasper, Boston Red Sox – 0% CS (12 att)
- Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals – 0% CS (20 att)
- Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves – 5% CS (22 att)
- Austin Hedges, Cleveland Guardians – 7% CS (28 att)
- Victor Caratini, Minnesota Twins – 11% CS (37 att)
- Carson Kelly, Chicago Cubs – 11% CS (35 att)
- Endy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates – 12% CS (17 att)
- Brett Sullivan, Colorado Rockies – 12% CS (26 att)
- Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays – 13% CS (24 att)
Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:
Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Thursday, July 9:
Favorite Bets:
Jake Mangum, Pittsburgh Pirates (+251) – The Pirates continue to be one of the more aggressive teams on the bases, and with Konor Griffin on the IL, it’s up to the switch-hitting Mangum to be the table-setter and help put the run-scoring machine into high gear. Righthander Bryce Elder is on the mound for Atlanta, and while he’s only allowed seven stolen bases this season, he’s allowed an average of nine hits per start over his last three, and the base-runners are piling up. Add to that catcher Drake Baldwin’s horrendous five-percent caught-stealing rate, and we’ve got a strong play for the early slate.
Otto Lopez, Miami Marlins (+372) – I’m having a tough time deciding between Lopez and Xavier Edwards, both of whom hit righties well, but I’m settling in on Lopez, who posts a .359 wOBA against righties, is riding an eight-game hit streak, and has stolen 15 of his 17 bases against right-handers. Mariners righty, Bryce Miller, hasn’t allowed any stolen bases yet, but he also missed a month and a half of a season. The Marlins are an aggressive team and will put Cal Raliegh and his below-average 25-percent caught-stealing rate to the test.
