MLB Stolen Base Picks Today: Best Stolen Base Predictions For August 4th, 2026
It’s time to get back to the best stolen base picks for today. Yesterday’s trade deadline was pure mayhem from start to finish, but, of course, in a good way. You have to love seeing teams we thought would be sellers turn into buyers and vice versa. When you have the Rays, the White Sox and the Twins all making a push for the playoffs, you have to love the parity. What we didn’t love was the uncertainty of what would be left behind, so we told you to bet light for the day. Well, that day is behind us, and we’re ready to get back to business. Let’s check in with the stolen base prop finder and try to bang out some more winning stolen base picks today.
Remember, Fantasy Alarm is your one-stop shop for all sports betting and player props, and we’ve got everything for MLB from the stolen bases to the home runs to strikeouts to all the best bets you need to be a successful sports bettor. Our Bet Tracker is loaded up for the day, and all the articles are available to you. Now, it’s time to dive into the research and deliver the best in MLB stolen base picks today.
Also, don’t forget to check out the latest edition of the new weekly stolen base report, as that series will continue to accrue data which will help us out on a daily basis. Everything you need for both daily and weekly fantasy baseball help. And speaking of daily help…you’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. And don’t forget to also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!
Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today
Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities, and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below, but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values.
- Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays (+195)
- Bobby Witt, Kansas City Royals (+250)
- Nasim Nunez, Washington Nationals (+261)
- Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (+291)
- Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (+298)
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today
When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.
- Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins – 15 SB allowed
- Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians – 13 SB allowed
- Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies – 13 SB allowed
- Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds – 10 SB allowed
Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases
The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.
- Mickey Gasper, Boston Red Sox – 0% CS (12 att)
- Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals – 0% CS (24 att)
- Austin Hedges, Cleveland Guardians – 6% CS (32 att)
- Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves – 7% CS (28 att)
- Victor Caratini, Minnesota Twins – 9% CS (43 att)
- Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins – 12% CS (25 att)
- Austin Wells, New York Yankees – 12% CS (26 att)
- Brett Sullivan, Colorado Rockies – 14% CS (29 att)
Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:
Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. We’ve got an interesting group of notable base-stealers at shorter odds, so here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Tuesday, August 4:
Favorite Bets:
Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays (+195) – We’re not getting great value here, but we’re going to go for it anyway as the Rays have shown a penchant for being hyper-aggressive on the bases. Yesterday, they swiped three bags off the tandem of Michael Lorenzen and Hunter Goodman, and whether it’s Goodman with his 21-percent caught-stealing or Brett Sullivan and his 14-percent CS-rate, I expect Simpson and Co. to be very active once again. We’ve got righty Gabriel Hughes on the mound for the Rockies today, so we should be in a good spot here.
Longshot:
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets (+565) – Not a bad time to take a longshot here, especially when it’s Lindor who leads off for the Mets when they face southpaws. For his career, he’s also posted better numbers from the right side of the plate, and we expect to see that .344 wOBA vs LHP on full display. Guardians lefty Joey Cantillo has allowed 13 stolen bases on the season this year, and his primary backstop, Austin Hedges, is one of the worst at throwing out base-runners. I’m talking about an embarrassingly low six-percent caught-stealing rate.
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