Yesterday, we said that it was time to start a new streak of hitting MLB home run picks after three straight days over the weekend. Well, we did, and in a big way - we cashed TWO of them! Just when you think MLB home run predictions can’t be consistent, we’re here to combat that narrative, which means we’re here with another trifecta of picks and more!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

It was all about Wrigley Field yesterday. Even after the weather delay, we hit two of our MLB home run picks in that game alone with Seiya Suzuki and JJ Bleday. As you can see, we aren’t even going after the “easy” names like Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.

Our MLB home run picks have been the perfect pairing with our MLB expert picks, so here are today’s targets…

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 5/5: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Of course, you may also want to know more about why those guys made the cut for our best MLB home run picks today. For starters, it should be no surprise that we first look at our MLB weather report given yesterday’s hits at windy Wrigley Field.

Speaking of starters, we’ve also got that factor, bullpen performances/fatigue, and hitter metrics like barrel rates and hard hit percentages. With those things in mind and more, here’s further explanation for our top MLB home run picks today.

Jake Burger (+460)

We saw several homers at Yankee Stadium this weekend that wouldn’t have been possible at the majority of other ballparks, so the Bronx Bombers remaining at home for their new series is ideal. However, it’s not Aaron Judge or anyone else on the home team that’s kicking off our best MLB home run picks for today.

Instead, we’re starting with the Texas Rangers side of the matchup, going against New York’s rookie starter Elmer Rodriguez. He recently made his MLB debut, and the easy play here would be Corey Seager. Take him if you prefer, but we see more value with the first baseman against the young righty.

Five of his six dingers have come against righties this season, so let’s start our best MLB home run picks for today with Jake Burger to hit a HR (+460 at FanDuel).

Will Smith (+500)

Last night, the Houston Astros had to deal with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound while having an opener for themselves. Now, they have to deal with Shohei Ohtani on the mound while starting Peter Lambert. So, it shouldn’t be a shock that we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks today with the LA lineup.

It’s always a pick-your-poison situation here, but we’ll lock in their catcher. Once again, this is not the popular pick of Max Muncy, which is absolutely one you could pivot to. We still see better value here for a guy who has loved facing Houston the past handful of seasons with a .591 slugging percentage and .987 OPS.

All of his long balls have come versus righties this season, so let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Will Smith to hit a HR (+500 at bet365). 

Brandon Marsh (+495)

We’re wrapping things up with a series between two teams that we love targeting at their home stadiums - Athletics vs. Phillies. We’ve harped on Sacramento for two series straight, but now it’s all about Citizens Bank Park. As long as Philly didn’t party too hard down in Miami, we love this spot for our best MLB home run picks today.

Bryce Harper’s solo shot got them the 1-0 win yesterday, and of course, Kyle Schwarber is the “square” play for this matchup. You guessed it - not for us. Instead, we’re all about this lefty, who is smashing righties to the tune of a .341 average and .919 OPS. Each of his homers this season has come against such pitching as well.

Let’s lock in and close out our best MLB home run picks for today with Brandon Marsh to hit a HR (+495 at Novig).

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

That was already plenty of plus-money, but we can never have too much of that! So, how about an MLB home run longshot pick for today? We’re sticking in the hitter-friendly and windy Philly tonight with their second baseman. Luis Severino presents a strong matchup, so here’s our best MLB home run longshot pick for today…

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Last but certainly not least, the biggest potential payout of all! You can pair our top three plays into the best MLB home run parlay for today…

It’s the riskiest of the bunch, but with the 10 days or so that we’ve had, why not throw in a flyer? Don’t make it a huge play, but it’s just another way to make our best MLB home run picks for today even more valuable!