Today features 6 games and only 6 games, which means every single one of our best MLB home run picks for today has to count. A lighter Thursday slate actually sharpens the focus considerably because the value concentrates rather than spreads. Patrick Corbin getting the ball in Baltimore is a name that made us stop scrolling immediately, and it’s not the only one worth targeting. Let's find the best MLB home run predictions for today.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

A light slate means we are digging deep into the entire card for our best MLB home run picks for today. A different look at each matchup is in our MLB expert picks, but the plus-money is right here. Here are the three names leading our top MLB home run predictions for 5/28:

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 5/28: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

With afternoon action in Chicago specifically, our MLB weather report is worth checking before the early first pitches. Patrick Corbin in Baltimore is the most obvious HR/FB rate target on the entire Thursday card, and Chris Sale at Fenway Park always creates an interesting dynamic for opposing power hitters. Let’s see if any of those games made the cut for our best MLB home run picks today.

Jake Burger (+500)

Unfortunately, we have to get this out of the way first and foremost - today is simply not a great day for the long ball. Not only are there fewer games, but the spots aren’t exactly ideal, either. Regardless, we’re here to do the digging for you, and the first of our best MLB home run picks for today is one you may not have expected.

The Houston Astros are starting Spencer Arrighetti’s curveball, and while that doesn’t generally provide high hard-contact rates, he still has one of the highest average exit velocities allowed. Speaking of that curveball, that’s why we’re rolling with Jake Burger, who we consider to be the best Texas target against that pitch.

You’ll see more on that before all is said and done, but to start, our best MLB home run picks for today, we’re taking Jake Burger to hit a HR (+500 at bet365).

Mike Trout (+375)

You’ll notice that we started things out with some incredible odds, but now it’s time to spin things back to what is one of the biggest names that fans target. Despite that, Mike Trout has not been his usual self, hence why his odds are no longer in the +200’s. Admittedly, we’ve had him within our MLB home run picks a couple of times this season without him coming through.

The former 3-time MVP has a matchup that can allow both himself and us to bounce back with his 14th homer of the year. While other big righty sluggers enjoy facing lefties, we like Trout against today’s righty, especially since it’s Jack Flaherty. He is one of the least trustworthy starters out there, and his underlying metrics suggest the same.

This is the first matchup of the day, so don’t waste any time locking in Mike Trout to hit a HR (+375 at FanDuel) as one of our best MLB home run picks for today. 

Miguel Vargas (+438)

After seeing the Chicago White Sox absolutely tee off last night to the tune of 15 runs, how could we not get one of their guys in here? Munetaka Murakami has been stealing the headlines, but our eyes are on a Vargas vs. Vargas crime today. The Minnesota Twins are no longer starting Taj Bradley, which also helps our top MLB home run picks.

Instead, they’re rolling with rookie lefty Kendry Rojas. Regardless of how you feel about his future outlook, right now, he’s been throwing some serious meatballs. That’s great news for Chicago’s righty that has been mashing lefties this season with an unbelievable 1.244 OPS and .772 slugging percentage.

Facing a lefty rookie that has also been worse vs. righties, that’s more than enough for us to add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Miguel Vargas to hit a HR (+438 at DraftKings). 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

It may be a short card, but the longshot market does not care about volume; it cares about matchups. Today's big play is built around a spot that feels underpriced given what we know about the clash:

Ok, this isn’t quite as much of an MLB home run longshot pick as the most recent one that we cashed at +1000, but consider it today’s value play then. Not only this season, but also last year, Josh Jung was actually Texas’s best hitter vs. curveballs, which he’s going to see against Arrighetti today. Even though he’s not the league’s top power hitter, this is too valuable to pass up as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today.
 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Stack our featured targets or bring in a name from another Thursday game alongside one of our best MLB home run picks for today and create a mega, for-fun payout:

Three featured best MLB home run picks for today, a longshot, our best MLB home run parlay, and 6 games’ worth of opportunity to close out the week before the weekend slate opens up. Let's finish Thursday strong!