The final week of July got started with a 12-game banger that saw our Francisco Lindor HR pick cash at +490! He actually homered twice, and as for tonight, we’ve got all 30 teams back on the diamond with a doubleheader. That means plenty of matchups to break down for the best MLB home run picks, including some great divisional rivalries. We also can’t forget that we’ve got guys out there building their resume heading into the trade deadline. That means both trying to cash in with MLB home run predictions and trying to prevent them, and we’ll break it all down for you!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Top arms like Chris Sale and Gavin Williams headline the slate, so since we’re not going to go out of our way to pick on those guys, our MLB expert picks will have you covered in terms of ways to attack the slate beyond our MLB home run picks. For more of those targets beyond the ones that we’re going to break down below, simply use our exclusive MLB home run prop tool.

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/28: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

For those guys to make the cut for our top MLB home run predictions, there are a ton of factors that are involved, starting with our very own MLB weather report. As mentioned, we’ll also be looking at starting pitchers not named Sale and Williams, and we also have to consider bullpens that have been allowing dingers at a high clip.

Swapping from the mound to the plate means a ton of hitting metrics to break down. We also see their raw homer numbers and even averages/slugging percentages, but much more goes into it. MLB home run picks also rely on expected numbers, hard-hit rates, barrel rates, and even pitch type performances. Those and more are considered as we fully dive into our top three spots.

Michael Harris (+455)

We cashed in with Francisco Lindor, and it was only a few days ago that Drake Baldwin cashed for us, so yes, we’re leading off with Braves vs. Mets. Obviously we saw multiple dingers at Citi Field last night, and in that game Baldwin cashed for us; Harris homered as well. So, we have him coming through for our MLB home run picks tonight vs. Christian Scott.

Is the Mets righty the worst one on the board? Not at all, but he can still be had. We enjoy targeting a lefty here with how often they’ll see four-seamers (he mixes in a sweeper more to righties), and it also helps that Harris harasses right-handed pitching. He’s hitting .305 against them with 13 of his 19 homers against them.

Tonight comes #20 to tie Baldwin and, most importantly, come through for our best MLB home run picks today with Michael Harris hitting a HR (+455 at BetMGM).

Miguel Vargas (+375)

Look, for the Yankees vs. White Sox game, we cashed in with the New York money line last night, and we would actually want to take Paul Goldschmidt again with Chicago starting another lefty. We also know that fans don’t want to see repeat targets for our MLB home run picks, so our new one may shock some fans.

That’s not because Vargas doesn’t have great numbers, but rather because we are targeting Gerrit Cole. The righty is a household name, but he also has those outings where he allows a few dingers in the first inning alone. In that regard, you’d also expect us to simply go with lefty Colson Montgomery as well.

Well, we’re going against the grain with the third baseman’s 97th percentile xSLG of .526, so Miguel Vargas hitting a HR (+375 at Caesars) is officially part of our top MLB home run picks today.

Wilyer Abreu (+405)

Ok, it’s now time to enjoy having a series in Sacramento. This would be such a great spot to call for Curtis Mead to hit his first Boston homer if not for getting hit on the hand last night. Not to worry - the Red Sox still have guys that can hit lefties, which is what they’ll be facing tonight to cash in on some MLB home run picks.

That’s particularly great news for Wilyer Abreu, who has been vastly superior vs. southpaws, and that’s while being a lefty himself. The one he’ll be facing is Gage Jump, and while his splits aren’t drastically different, this is about Abreu’s. His barrel rate of 12.5% is excellent to pair with his .581 slugging against left-handed pitching.

For an even more incredibly valuable price, we’re rounding out our top three MLB home run picks for today with Wilyer Abreu hitting a HR (+405 at FanDuel).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

You’ve already seen one way to go beyond our top three MLB home run picks, but let’s get another one as well. Here’s our best longshot option on the board.

We saw a lower-scoring game at the aforementioned Sacramento last night, so of course we’ll see homers galore tonight. This isn’t our longest shot ever, but for a guy with 10 homers and facing a lefty, we’re rolling with the third baseman for our best MLB home run longshot pick today.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

One more approach for you brings in another potential payout that is massive. Rather than relying on a longshot from our MLB home run picks, here are a few guys that are much more known for hitting the longball.

As we always suggest, playing any of those names individually is also a fine approach. You could even swap in one of our overall best MLB home run picks in for one of those guys. It’s all up to you - just make it the most exciting and valuable slate yet!