Whether you’re bummed that the weekend is over or still jacked up from how well it went, there is one thing that it’s always a good time for - our best MLB home run picks that hit with a top-three target, a longshot at +910, AND a free newsletter bonus pick! That means six straight days of winners, and as for today’s slate, it starts with premier HR hitters like Rafael Devers, Matt Olson, and Junior Caminero, and wraps up with league-leading Kyle Schwarber. So there is a ton to consider, and we’ve broken it all down to make sure that you’re locking in the best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

It’s certainly not just those few names above worth targeting, and that means more than just MLB home run picks. With that in mind, our MLB expert picks are here to hook you up with more market coverage. That means other hitter props, K props for guys like Kyle Harrison, game markets, and more. However, if you just want more names than the ones below for MLB home run predictions, take advantage of our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/31: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

So, how do we come up with those names? The factors that impact our MLB home run picks are virtually endless, but the first ones that we’ll note are the ones you can uncover with our MLB weather report. From there, we uncover a ton of metrics with today’s starting pitchers; it’s far more than just what you see in the box score that matters.

This means values like hard-hit rate allowed, expected ISO allowed, slugging allowed, and more. Hitters have many of the same metrics along with others like barrel rates, launch-angle sweet spots, bat speed, and more. Of course, we also have to consider bullpens, and we’ll outline several of these factors below as we break down each of our top MLB home run picks today!

Kyle Stowers (+435)

First and foremost - you don’t see Coors Field here with the 62% chance of rain, but if you want to pick on Colorado Rockies starter Tanner Gordon, you want an O’s lefty (Samuel Basallo if he plays). However, let’s not risk giving you a target that doesn’t even play and instead, lead off our best MLB home run picks for today in the nation’s capital.

It’s been a spot we love targeting because while it’s not Coors Field, it means that the Washington Nationals bullpen is involved. They’ve allowed 92 homers this season - the next closest team has allowed 82, and just one other team has allowed 80. So, all we need to say is that the Nats are going with a bullpen game today!

Heriberto Hernandez is the chalkier pick (we hit with him in the newsletter a few days ago), but we like the value of this lefty’s 98th percentile hard-hit rate of 55.7%. Therefore, we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Kyle Stowers hitting a HR (+435 at ProphetX) 

Jackson Merrill (+355)

Brady Singer has outperformed expectations in several spots this season, but has come back down to becoming a solid HR target as of late. He’s allowed a dinger in four straight starts now, five in total, and is even coming off a recent injury scare. That combination is more than enough to add to our MLB home run picks when we also consider the Reds' poor bullpen.

Singer was listed as day-to-day after his last outing and has been cleared for this start, but it was a rib/side/hip issue, which can absolutely still affect him. That means homers allowed or a short outing, either of which we love. On top of all that, we’ve got a righty against a San Diego Padres lineup that has been much stronger since the break, AND it’s at the Great American Ball Park.

It sets up well for multiple guys in the lineup of the road team, but we’re locking in Jackson Merrill hitting a HR (+335 at ProphetX) as part of our best MLB home run picks for today.

Matt Olson (+375)

Circling back to bullpen games, we’re going to check out Atlanta. We certainly won’t say that the San Francisco Giants bullpen is on par with the Nats’, but they’re still barely outside the bottom 10 in terms of ERA. Regardless, Matt Olson has cashed 37 MLB home run picks this season, and we’re enjoying a price tag in the +300s.

We expected this to be sub-250, but apparently the oddsmakers don’t think the lefty can power through a whopping 5 mph in-blowing wind. That’s not a concern for us when we have a guy looking to end as the league leader with his 98th percentile expected slugging, 94th percentile average exit velocity, 95th percentile barrel rate AND 92nd percentile hard-hit rate.

The value pick here is Ronald Acuna, but we’re going to stick with the more trustworthy guy and add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Matt Olson hitting a HR (+375 at bet365) 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

We love providing you with our top three MLB home run picks AND a free bonus pick, but we also love taking things a step further, which we’ve done with our favorite longshot target for today (remember, we cashed yesterday’s)!

Would it be easy to just target Coors Field or even the Great American Ball Park again? Of course. However, we’re going to call for a prospect’s first career homer. We had Kaelen Culpepper, the other elite Minnesota Twins prospect, hit for us not long ago at +880, and now it’s the lefty’s turn. Even at the bottom of the lineup (likely), we love this as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

If you thought the above potential payout was huge, we can STILL take things a step further. That’s by adding to our best MLB home run picks today and longshot with a for-fun parlay…

We’ve got a lefty that didn’t cash for us yesterday, a righty who’s gotten hot at windy Wrigley, and a Bryce-on-Bryce crime for that trio. It’s just yet another way to lock in some MLB home run picks for today!