Baseball’s midweek series has provided us with windy Wrigley Field, some games in a humid Northeast, the Great American “Smallpark” and, of course, Coors Field. That has meant plenty for us to consider in terms of the best MLB home run picks, and we’re here to do it all again. Now, we have games all afternoon and evening to consider, so there is plenty to dive into. We’ve broken it all down from start to finish to ensure that you are set up with the top MLB home run predictions for today!

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

There are quite a few aces on the mound that aren’t exactly ideal for MLB home run picks, but you can check for other ways to target those studs with our MLB expert picks. After all, when there are non-stop games going on, why not have as much coverage as possible? Even still, if you just want to focus on more MLB home run predictions, then see what our exclusive MLB home run prop tool is coming up with!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/19: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

It’s easy to just spit out a few names, but it’s another ball game to provide the WHY behind the best MLB home run picks. First and foremost, you’ll want to check in with our MLB weather report, especially given the aforementioned windy Wrigley Field and humid Northeast. Those factors also affect the next variable we consider - the starting pitchers taking the mound.

Each one matches up differently based on their splits (righty vs. lefty and home vs. road), and hitters do the same. There are also underlying metrics for both to analyze, such as expected ISO allowed, expected slugging for both, and even barrel + hard-hit rates. Let’s also not forget that bullpens can also be exploited for MLB home run picks - let’s see how everything shakes out for our top three targets!

Mickey Moniak (+362)

Look, the entire first half of the week is going to be about the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field, so let’s just knock this out right away. After all, the series wraps up tonight, and we have starters on both sides that can allow their fair share of homers. That means we expect several MLB home run picks to cash, as you’ve already seen with the names alone.

When it comes to Roki Sasaki, he has allowed a nearly even split of his 21 homers between righties and lefties (11 and 10, respectively). A healthy Hunter Goodman would be primed for a dinger here, but right now, it’s all about the lefty that we don’t always see in the lineup given his drastic splits - he has a .571 slugging vs. righties compared to a .364 slugging vs. lefties.

That’s why we’ve seen 17 of his 19 homers come against right-handed pitching, so let’s see #20 for the first of our MLB home run picks on Mickey Moniak hitting a HR (+362 at DraftKings).

Mookie Betts (+490)

It’s finally time! Ok, yes, we’re staying in the chalky Coors Field, but it’s not a spot where we’re forcing ourselves to pivot away from the chalky lefties like Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy. That’s because the Rockies are starting Kyle Freeland, and we want to lock in a righty with our MLB home run picks to capitalize on the lefty.

We took Andy Pages yesterday, and you could certainly pivot to him in this spot instead. However, we’re more than happy to lock in the LA shortstop after showing some power as of late - Mookie homered in back-to-back games just two series ago. Of course, we also love his 96th percentile launch angle sweet spot rate of 40.2%.

Combine it all with the Colorado bullpen, and we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Mookie Betts hitting a HR (+490 at ProphetX). 

Junior Caminero (+340)

We’ve got another big name on the card at a great price, especially given the guy he’s facing on the mound. It’s another big household name, but one that is far from the prime that this third baseman is in. That would be Max Scherzer. The future Hall-of-Famer has gotten smacked, making him great for cashing MLB home run picks.

A lefty in Jonathan Aranda is a fair pivot to go with a lefty and get a bigger potential payout, but we’re more than comfortable with +300 or better for Caminero. A 100th percentile bat speed, 96th percentile average exit velocity, 94th percentile xSLG, and 92nd percentile hard-hit rate are some of the many reasons as to why we feel that way.

A righty-on-righty crime also adds up with his .551 slugging vs. righties, including 28 of his 35 homers! So, let’s round out our best MLB home run picks for today with Junior Caminero hitting a HR (+340 at ProphetX).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

All the factors that we discussed above and more can also be used to add to our best MLB home run picks with today’s longshot; here’s who is on our radar…

This must be some parallel universe that we woke up in for this name to be in this section. Even if it’s not the +1000 or better MLB home run longshot pick we love to find, how can we pass this up? This is a HR Derby contestant in hitter-friendly KC (yes, slight winds blowing in), recently cashed for us in the +200s, Jeffrey Springs may be on the mound tonight (he’s allowed the third-most homers), and need we go on? Just add this to our best MLB home run picks at this price while you can!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Again, we can continue using our favorite factors to target more guys that just barely didn’t make the cut and create a for-fun parlay. With that in mind, it means that these guys are also worthy of making MLB home run picks individually…

You may have already created your own parlay slip with our top three names, and that works too. No matter the case, we’ve got all-day baseball to enjoy! Let’s make the most of it with our best MLB home run picks and make it as valuable as possible!