The weekend was full of hype and excitement on the diamond to pair with the first full slate of NFL preseason action, and we’re here to start the week the same way with our best MLB home run picks for today after cashing in with Bobby Witt yesterday! Sure, Mondays are lighter slates, but even still, we’ve got 11 games on deck, so it’s far from the smallest menu we’ve had. There is even an NL Central doubleheader of Cardinals vs. Reds to enjoy, and one of them is even part of our best MLB home run predictions for today!

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

The doubleheader isn’t the only highlight of the slate - we’ve also got a lefty ace on the mound in Cristopher Sanchez, and since he’s not a guy we go out of our way to target for MLB home run picks, check out our MLB expert picks to see if he made the cut there. You’ll find several ways to approach the Monday action there, and for more than the names you’ll see below, you can always use our exclusive MLB home run prop tool for more!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/17: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We’ll once again bring up the doubleheader, as rain was something to watch in Cincinnati over the weekend, which is why you’ll also want to keep tabs on our MLB weather report for our MLB home run picks. You’ll also find that some of today’s combo of starters + bullpens are absolutely ideal for the long ball.

Of course, the guys actually hitting them over the fence are key factors to break down. For both them and the guys on the mound, we’ll see how they match up in terms of righty/lefty splits, home/road splits, pitch type performances, and other underlying metrics that you don’t see in the box score, like barrel and hard-hit rates.

In other words, we go beyond just the surface-level numbers to make sure that you’re always getting the best MLB home run predictions!

Freddie Freeman (+445)

Our favorite trifecta is back on the menu! It may be the final game of the slate, but when we see Tomoyuki Sugano leading into the Colorado Rockies bullpen all at Coors Field, we have to lead off here. With all that combined with the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, you know that we’re in store for several MLB home run picks coming through.

That also means that we aren’t going to get the longest odds in the world, but the factors are just too good of a recipe to pass up. It also makes this a classic pick-your-poison scenario with how many guys there are to target in LA, but we’re going with an amazing hitter that just may not be known for homers like Shohei Ohtani and company.

If you’re willing to pay +100s for a homer, go with Ohtani, but we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks today with Freddie Freeman hitting HR (+445 at ProphetX).

Dillon Dingler (+620)

Perhaps our second-favorite trifecta is also on the menu with Rhett Lowder leading into the Cincinnati Reds bullpen all at the Great American Ball Park. However, doubleheaders muddy the waters with lineups, taking the odds for the right game and other variables, so we’re going to pivot for the next target of our MLB home run picks (take Alec Burleson if you must).

Instead, we’re simply going to swap to a different NL Central team by picking on the Pittsburgh Pirates for some monster value on a huge slugger. They’re hosting the Detroit Tigers, and here’s something many fans likely wouldn’t have guessed - the Tigers have the #1 best wRC+ vs. righties the past month (133)! That’s even without Riley Greene right now and after yesterday’s loss.

So, they can absolutely capitalize on Carmen Mlodzinski and his fifth-percentile average exit velocity and second-percentile hard-hit rate. Our top target to take advantage of those metrics is the addition to our best MLB home run picks today of Dillon Dingler hitting a HR (+620 at ProphetX).

Drake Baldwin (+348)

After Coors Field, we’re targeting two spots that don’t always top our radar, but we love this Braves vs. Twins series. Sure, Byron Buxton didn’t go yard for us yesterday (so of course he will today), but Matt Olson homered. With Bailey Ober starting for Minnesota, he can do so again alongside the focus of our MLB home run picks.

It’s interesting when it comes to Ober, as he throws change-ups to lefties as much as he can, yet he’s still allowing a ton of power. That’s by allowing a .235 ISO with a .251 expected ISO, and we know that Atlanta has some strong southpaws. Michael Harris is who we swapped from for Baldwin’s 93rd percentile hard-hit rate and 91st percentile xSLG.

Even Ozzie Albies is a very strong value option, but we’re rounding out our top three MLB home run picks with Drake Baldwin hitting a HR (+348 at DraftKings).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

You know that we always like to keep our MLB home run picks coming, and next up is our favorite longshot after breaking down the slate for those aforementioned top three targets.

Now it’s back to a stadium we love - Kauffman Stadium in KC. They’re hosting the A’s, so Sutter Health Park would have been even better, but we still love this price for a guy with 11 homers this year and an average exit velocity just a tick under 90 mph. So, the lefty is our best MLB home run longshot pick for today.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

The nights in which we have fewer games are the ones where a for-fun parlay becomes even more exciting. With that in mind, here’s our top way to continue adding to the best MLB home run picks above.

Steal one of these for another individual pick or just combine our top three names for a different parlay angle. Either way, you have plenty of guys to roll with to make sure that you have the best MLB home run picks for today locked in!