Not only is a new week upon us, but it’s also the true home stretch of the MLB regular season leading up to the first Monday Night Football game of the NFL season! So, let’s make it all even more exciting with some of the best MLB home run picks for today. It’s a lighter 10-game slate that features some studs like Gavin Williams and Tarik Subal, but we also see one of our favorite targets on the board. You’ll have to see who that is below as we dive into the top MLB home run predictions today.

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

The aforementioned arms on the mound are just the first two games of the night, so with others later on, you’ll want to go beyond our best MLB home run picks today with our MLB expert picks. In fact, the slate wraps up with Sandy Alcantara vs. Corbin Burnes, so there are plenty to enjoy leading up to and during MNF. All that said, for more MLB home run predictions, just enjoy our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/14: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

To start the week, we won’t have MLB home run picks to make at Sutter Health Park, but we will have Coors Field and Wrigley Field! That means checking in with our MLB weather report is a must for humidity, wind and more. That’s where we start, and then we continue by breaking down the starting pitchers on the mound.

From their righty/lefty splits and home/road splits to expected slugging/ISO allowed and barrel and hard-hit rates and everything in between, there is a ton to consider. The same can be said for the hitters at the plate, and of course, we can’t ignore the bullpens that we’ll see at some point 99% of the time. So, let’s fully dive into our top MLB home run predictions for today!

Jackson Merrill (+359)

We said from the top that one of our favorite targets is on the menu, and it’s the complete trifecta that we’ve stated over and over again. That would be the recipe of Tomoyuki Sugano, the Colorado Rockies bullpen and Coors Field. Sugano wasn’t at home last start, and he STILL allowed two MLB home run picks to cash!

This means that he’s now allowed 29 homers this season, closing in on the league lead. Both of the ones in that most recent outing came from lefties, and now facing the San Diego Padres, Jackson Merrill becomes the clear target. His .247 expected ISO vs. righties is also higher than both Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Manny Machado, so it all adds up even more perfectly. 

He homered three times in a three-game span to close out last week, so let’s start this one by leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Jackson Merrill hitting a HR (+359 at DraftKings). 

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+291)

After leading off at Coors Field, it’s only fitting to transition to Wrigley Field. While it’s an amazing spot when the wind is blowing out in the double digits, that doesn’t HAVE to be the case for us to see some bombs. That’s especially true when it’s Braves vs. Cubs, as both lineups feature multiple top targets for MLB home run picks.

It’s an even better matchup when the starting pitching duel is AJ Smith-Shawver vs. David Peterson. We’re going to pick on the former, who has allowed four homers over his last three starts, and has had only five starts all year. He’s also a righty that has both historically and is currently allowing more power to righties, but let’s be honest - PCA is PCA.

Therefore, we’ll happily ride his .308 ISO vs. righties and add to our top MLB home run picks today with Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting a HR (+291 at DraftKings). 

Aaron Judge (+316)

Are we finally going to see it? Ok, using the word “finally” is a bit dramatic, but with Judge, he’s expected to homer on a daily basis. He hasn’t in any of his five games since returning, but one of the best remedies for him is seeing Dean Kremer on the mound. He’s one of the best in the bigs when it comes to allowing MLB home run picks to cash.

It’s been 16 in total, but like Judge, he also missed significant time - two and a half months. He’s also a great target righty vs. righty, as he has a .222 ISO allowed with a .252 ISO to boot. We’ve also seen pitchers not afraid to pitch to Judge, as he’s walked just once in these first five games back! Against a fly-ball pitcher, that’s great news.

His odds have only gotten longer game by game, so let’s enjoy the bit of added value and add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Aaron Judge hitting a HR (23.5%, so +325, at Novig). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

With matchups leading us up to Monday Night Football, why not go above and beyond with our best MLB home run picks for today? Here is our favorite longshot option…

Sugano is one of our favorite guys to pick on, and since he’s already featured on the card, why not stick with one of our favorites in this spot? After all, the leadoff man is at home and an 87th percentile launch-angle sweet-spot rate is elite for a guy that qualifies as an MLB home run longshot pick! 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Ok, if that still wasn’t above and beyond enough for you, how about a for-fun parlay? Here are the guys we’re piecing together to hit a trio of MLB home run picks at once…

The first two are simply righty pivots from our first two targets, while the Yankees big trade addition swaps sides of the plate. Now that you’ve got that trio to go along with our best MLB home run picks for today, let’s start the week strong!