2017 NFL Target Analysis: Week 1

Before we were ever so blessed with the return of the 2017 football campaign we gave you an introduction piece to this weekly article, breaking down all the content we’ve be providing you with. Some of the information is very hard to trust seeing how we’re just one week into the season, but there are definitely some numbers that will pop and help you with some of the fantasy questions you may have had. We’ve provided you with a chart right below here so you can dive in and look at the numbers from Week 1!

Target Leaders

When you fork over a five-year, $81 MIL deal -- $49 MIL guaranteed -- to a wide-receiver, you’d expect them to be someone you target heavily. That was definitely the case in Week 1 as DeAndre Hopkins paced the league with 16 targets, three more than anybody else. Not only that, but those 16 targets were a whopping 44-percent of the Texans total targets through the air, which is also the top mark on our list. Now that Houston has already made the switch to Deshaun Watson at QB, we should expect the heavy dose of targets to “Nuk” to continue going forward.

We saw three pass-catchers with 13 receptions in Larry Fitzgerald, Randall Cobb and Amari Cooper, which was the second-highest mark from Week 1. Cobb was without a doubt the most surprising one of this group as it seemed like his targets would dwindle as Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Martellus Bennett’s would increase. It could be simply due to the fact that he’s healthy, but if that’s the case going forward, he could work his way back to a WR2, especially in PPR formats, which could ultimately hurt Adams or Bennett’s stock.

When the offseason began, draft picks were in, and free agents were signed, we started diving into depth charts. One of the more interesting DC headed into Week 1 were the Tennessee Titans and its wide receiving corps. After drafting Corey Davis and signing Eric Decker, the Titans have four legitimate pass catchers in Delanie Walker, Eric Decker, Corey Davis, and Rishard Matthews, and that’s not even mentioning how potent their running attack is. We saw a glimpse of how the season should pan out for all of them as all four made the top-52 in targets, but all of them were in the seven-to-10 range. Anyone receiving seven targets or more should be intriguing, especially if it’s on a consistent basis, but is it realistic to think all four will get that many targets each week? Only time will tell.

The biggest surprise on the entire list is very obviously Tarik Cohen, aka the talk of the waiver-wire this week. The Bears backup running back saw the sixth most targets in all of football and it was kind of like an RKO out of nowhere! Cohen is very clearly explosive and with Kevin White and Cameron Meredith both out for the year, there is no reason to think Cohen’s playing time will diminish. Don’t expect him to become the bell cow for Chicago because Jordan Howard is a very skilled back, but Cohen should see a lot of targets and could be a main staple on this list going forward.

Target Percentage

When you see players like DeAndre Hopkins receiving 44-percent of the targets and Amari Cooper receiving 40, you believe it. But when you are doing your research and guys like Julio Jones aren’t showing up because lack of targets, you know it’s simply a one-week fluke. The target percentages are very tough to trust after just one week and as we move forward, you’ll be able to get a better grasp on who’s the alpha in each offense and who are some sleepers you’d be wise to pick up as you look to win your fantasy leagues or take down a GPP in DFS.

Red Zone Targets

What we should definitely focus in on are the guys getting the targets at every hash on the field, including the red zone. Not only did Amari Cooper tie for the second most targets in football this week, but he led the way with four targets within the 20. The 25-percent rate he and Derek Carr were able to carve out Week 1, could be 75 or even 100 the next, but the volume is there, which is the most important aspect of red zone targets.

Going right back to the well talking about the Titans, but its notable when you have so many options offensively. Only two -- Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews -- received looks in the red zone, Davis being the only one getting into the end zone. We have to monitor this because one of the four could be receiving the least amount of targets, but the most inside the red zone or vice versa.

One week data can be so fluky as we mentioned. For example; Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson and Michael Thomas were three of the names on this list who didn’t receive a single target inside the 20-yard line and that’s simply not going to be the case going forward. Let’s compile more data in the upcoming weeks before going out and targeting Jesse James as a legitimate TE1 because he saw three targets in the red zone.

Drops

Dropped passes is definitely another stat hard to judge off of one week. Of the 52 names compiled on our list, 11 of them had one drop and Matt Forte is the only player in the league that had two. Obviously if drops for some of these guys become a week-to-week thing, we could see a dip in passes thrown their way.