2016 NFL Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions: Week 13

Every Friday throughout the NFL regular season I will be sending you this lineup helper that I like to call: Tough Decisions. In this article I will breakdown players with similar value, ranking and projection heading into this coming week.

Since this piece does come out on Fridays, injury news may pop up after posting time. Make sure you’re checking all your sources so you have up to date information regarding injuries, playing status, etc. Once again, if you want your lineup question featured in this piece, just hit me up on Twitter and your question could be featured. Anyways, let’s get into it.

Let's take a look at the TOUGH DECISIONS for Week 13:

QUARTERBACKS

Cam Newton (@SEA) or Eli Manning (@PIT)

The Case for Newton: Since Carolina’s bye in Week 7, there have been 21 quarterbacks putting up more fantasy points per game than Cam Newton. His offensive line is pretty bad, which never makes things easier, but there’s just something wrong with Newton. Is he injured? Nobody is completely healthy at this point, so possibly. His receivers, save Greg Olsen, have been subpar to date and Newton just isn’t finding the end zone. The matchup sucks and quite frankly, Newton kind of sucks at this juncture. He’s a QB2 in my eyes.

The Case for Manning: Manning goes on the road to face a dynamic Pittsburgh offense and to this point of the season, Manning has been much worse when he’s not in the friendly confines of his home stadium. Take a look at his splits here:

Well, if that doesn’t say something. Sure, it’s a good matchup, in that it’s a likely shootout against an average defense at best, but it’s hard to ignore these splits. The Pittsburgh defense has been playing better of late, so that’s another thing to consider. Yes, Manning has Odell Beckham at his disposal, but the numbers just don’t quite add up for Manning in Week 13.

The Verdict: Manning. I trust him more than Cam.

RUNNING BACKS

Devontae Booker (@JAC) or Jeremy Hill (vs. PHI)

The Case for Booker: Booker has received 24 carries in back-to-back games and the team will continue to feed him the rock. It would be nice for him be more active in the passing attack, but hey, we can’t make our cake and eat it too. He hasn’t exactly broken a lot of tackles, which is why his YPC over the last two games sits at just 3.22. Booker offers a nice floor, thanks to a heavy workload, but until he starts doing more with these touches, he’s going to stay in the RB2 echelon. Jacksonville is very beatable on the ground, so this is an opportunity for Booker to flirt with 100 rushing yards.

The Case for Hill: Coming into last week’s game, Hill had nine receptions on the season. With A.J. Green and Gio Bernard out with injuries, Hill tallied six receptions against the Ravens. He was stymied on the ground (21 yards on 12 carries), but his receiving totals helped salvage an otherwise lackluster fantasy day. The Eagles are allowing 4.3 YPC to running backs this season, which gives Hill some fantasy appeal in Week 13. If he continues to get sizable work in the passing attack, he’s a legitimate RB2 the rest of the way.

The Verdict: Hill. Pure gut call right here.

WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins (@GB) or Willie Snead (vs. DET)

The Case for Hopkins: Hopkins has five receptions in four of his last five games, but quarterback Brock Osweiler has just destroyed Hopkins’ fantasy value this season. Nuk is one of the most talented receivers in the league, but Osweiler’s terrible passer rating has Hopkins owners enraged. Hopkins hasn’t found the end zone since Week 5 and hasn’t eclipsed 75 receiving yards since Week 2, which is the only time he has done it all season. Green Bay’s pass defense has been terrible this season, so there is some optimism for Nuk in Week 13. If Osweiler can figure his shit out, Hopkins’ numbers will get where they deserve to be. Hope for the best with Nuk this week.

The Case for Snead: Detroit has allowed 22 passing touchdowns this season and with Drew Brees at home, all of his receivers are in play. Snead has seven or more targets in all but one game since the team’s bye in Week 5, but he hasn’t really turned it into much, outside a 5-47-2 game against Denver in Week 10. This Detroit secondary is vulnerable, but Snead is clearly the third option in the passing attack, behind Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas. Cooks will likely get a ton of looks after being nonexistent last week. Snead is a low-end WR2 this week.

The Verdict: Snead. I love me some Hopkins, but I just can’t get on board the Brocketship right now.

THE FLEX CONUNDRUM

Theo Riddick (@NO) or Jamison Crowder (@ARI)

The Case for Riddick: Simply put, Riddick is facing the Saints defense. Enough said. I could leave it at that, but everyone loves facts and figures to justify a decision! Riddick has received double-digit touches in each of the past four games and only three teams have allowed more receiving yards to running backs over the course of the season. Riddick’s 6.8 targets per game trail only Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson in that department and in Week 13, there’s going to be plenty of opportunity for Riddick to thrive. He’s an RB2 for me this week, but don’t be surprised if he puts up low-end RB1 numbers against New Orleans.

The Case for Crowder: Crowder has a touchdown or at least 88 receiving yards in six straight games and with Jordan Reed unlikely to play on Sunday, that just means more opportunity for Crowder to produce. Kirk Cousins loves to spread the ball around, but Crowder maintains a solid 6.9 targets per game. He’s been targeted nine or more times in three of his last five games and should be able to avoid a full-blown shadow from Arizona’s Patrick Peterson. At this point of the season, given his numbers, it’s hard not to get excited about Crowder on a weekly basis. He’s a quality second or third receiver on Sunday.

The Verdict: Riddick. These two will both push 18-20 fantasy points in PPR formats this week.

TIGHT ENDS

Antonio Gates (vs. TB) or Cameron Brate (@SD)

The Case for Gates: Yes, Gates received zero targets, but in terms of his Week 13 fantasy value, who gives a damn? Short memory, folks. Up until last week’s clunker, Gates had nine or more targets in four of five games and he still maintains a healthy 7.1 targets per game. Only six teams have allowed more receiving yards to tight ends this season than the Buccaneers, and they are allowing 74 yards per game to the position over their last four games. Gates is set to produce TE1 numbers in Week 13.

The Case for Brate: Given the nature of the Tampa Bay offense, it’s either a handoff to Doug Martin or Jameis Winston throws it to Mike Evans. Brate is averaging just five targets over his last three games and he hasn’t scored since Week 10 against a bad Chicago defense. Even though he’s regarded as the second option in the passing game, unless he scores, he isn’t going to do much for you. San Diego has allowed just three touchdowns to the position all season and I don’t see Brate being the guy who makes it four. Consider him a TE2, but don’t expect much from him this week.

The Verdict: Gates. He wins this battle, but Brate’s team wins the war. Gates outscores Brate, but the Bucs outscore the Chargers.

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