In a perfect world, there would be no busts. Players would just do what we expect them to do and may the best person win your fantasy baseball league. Unfortunately, this isn’t Utopia and if there’s a hard and fast lesson to learn about this game, it’s that, just as in life, the fantasy world is filled with disappointment. Your job is to identify where that disappointment could be found and to avoid it. My job is to help you get there. Below is my list of the Top 20 Fantasy Baseball Busts you should probably avoid on Draft Day.

 

  1. Justin Smoak 1B Toronto Blue Jays

For years, we have been waiting for Smoak to break out and unleash the power many were expecting when he first entered the league. Now 31 years old, he is finally coming off his career year in which he slashed .270/.355/.529 with 38 home runs and 90 RBI and he’ll be flying up fantasy draft boards because of it.  As magical a season is may have been for the switch-itting slugger, I see 2017 as an aberration, not a sign of things to come. Between the changes in the Blue Jays lineup and normal, expected regression, I believe he’ll return to being a .260 hitter with 18-22 home runs. The runs and RBI total are expected to come down as well. Perhaps the fall won’t be as dramatic if the Blue Jays can add some outfield power bats here in the offseason, but 2017 was more the ultimate peak and it’s time to head back to the valley.

  1. Avisail Garcia RF Chicago White Sox

At age-27, Garcia began his prime years with a huge jump in his slash line as he finished the season batting .330/.380/.506 with 18 home runs and 81 RBI.  The question analysts and evaluators will have to determine is whether it was a true breakout season or just a benefit in circumstances.  The analytics point towards it being the latter rather than the former.  I do think he is capable of duplicating the home run, RBI and Runs totals but I expect the average and on-base percentage to revert back closer to his career norms. That slash line seems to be juiced by a .392 BABIP which was more than 50 points higher than his career mark.

  1. Gio Gonzalez LHP Washington Nationals

The 32-year old southpaw was finally healthy for a full season and it obviously reflected in his performance as he finished among the top-10 in the National League in most pitching categories. By season’s end, he was 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA, massively exceeded everyone’s expectations. The two-time all-star is a free agent after 2018 and the one thing we never know is how a player will handle the pressure of pitching for a long-term deal.  Some players do well, but many times they don’t as evidenced by Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies last year.  Gonzalez’ ERA was almost a full run less than his career norm and I expect that to raise back closer to his career 3.64 ERA.  However, he’ll get his wins thanks to the team’s offense, defense and bullpen.  He should be good for another 170 strikeouts but also expect him to lead the league in walks like he did last year.  I also think there is some health risk with his shoulder, so be very careful.

  1. Tommy Pham CF St. Louis Cardinals

Pham finally had a healthy year at age-29 and what a breakout season it was as he slashed an impressive .306/.411/.520 with 22 doubles, 23 home runs, 73 RBI and 25 stolen bases.  A real fantasy winner in 2017.  He was the Cardinals’ best player last year and he is expected to be their every-day center fielder this season.  However, Pham has an extensive history of injuries and the league will be ready to make the necessary adjustments against him after his strong season.  I expect heavy regression with significant injury risk.

  1. Aaron Hicks CF New York Yankees

The 28-year old outfielder is an intriguing fantasy players considering his 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases last year over just 88 games.  The Yankees are also talking about him being their every-day center fielder.  I just don’t buy his bat.  He’s never hit .270 before and good pitching can get him out.  The Yankees are also loaded in the outfield and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brett Gardner land in center field, flanking both Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge as none of them wants to DH on a regular basis.  Hicks also has competition from Jacoby Ellsbury and rookie Clint Frazier, so a full-season of at-bats seems unlikely. 

  1. Logan Morrison 1B Free Agent

Morrison enjoyed the best year of his career at age-30 after belting 38 home runs for the Tampa Bay Rays while finishing with 75 runs and 85 RBI.  For fantasy players who think he’ll repeat those numbers, I say dream on because it’s not happening.  Not with the way his fly-ball rate and HR/FB spiked so dramatically in comparison to his career marks. Sustaining those numbers in conjunction with how his strikeout rate increased, seems unlikely. I would predict 15-20 home runs with 50 runs and RBI if he even gets the opportunity somewhere which might be tough to find. UPDATE: Morrison has found a home with the Minnesota Twins and is expected to be their full-time DH with spome work at first base to spoell Joe Mauer. There is little to no reason to believe the ballpark will be a problem for him as the park factor comparison to Tampa favors the power at Target Field. He's still not going to repeat the 38 homers, but at least he's getting a shot.

  1. Eddie Rosario LF Minnesota Twins

The 26-year old Rosario hit his prime years with a bang last season and was the Twins most pleasant surprise when he slashed .290/.328/.508 with 33 doubles, 27 home runs and 78 RBI.  That type of performance will have him running up draft boards, but not mine. Although I don’t think there will be significant regression, I do believe it will be enough, especially in the home run category, to make him a bust for where you’ll have to draft him. High-quality fantasy drafting is all about value and without similar totals to last year, you’re not going to come close to getting that return value based on where we expect some people to take him.

  1. Jose Urena RHP Miami Marlins

Urena had his breakout season at age-26 last year thanks to the terrific job Marlins manager Don Mattingly did in developing him.  When the season was over, the right-hander finished with a 14-7 record with a 3.82 ERA.  Very impressive totals, especially considering he was a waiver claim in most, if not all, leagues. However, he’s not a big strikeout guy which is rough for fantasy purposes, and a look at his peripherals, from his 5.29 xFIP to his 1.38 HR/9 in a pitcher-friendly park, I expect his ERA to shoot back over the 4.00 mark as hitter’s continue to make adjustments. Also, with the Marlins’ trades of both Giancarlo Stanton and Marcel Ozuna, the Fish will probably go from being a third-place to last-place team which will lead to a large drop in wins.

  1. Nick Castellanos RF Detroit Tigers

The 26-year old Castellanos finally arrived offensively last year, slashing .272/.320/.490 with 36 doubles, 10 triples, 26 home runs and 101 RBI.  He benefited from a deep lineup and his move to right field also took pressure off him defensively.  However, with the trades of Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler and J.D. Martinez, coupled with the injuries and decline issues of both Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, there will be more pressure on Castellanos than ever before.  I expect regression in the power numbers because of it.

  1. Jhoulys Chacin RHP Milwaukee Brewers**

A 29-year old journeyman, Chacin has now pitched for five different teams in five years and it appeared as if he found a home at Petco Park in with the Padres after going 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 180.1 innings, his best season since 2013.  His numbers at home – 1.79 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP – were unreal, but obviously, the 6.50 road ERA cannot be ignored. Big league hitters know what he’s all about and will make their adjustments accordingly when visiting San Diego. Between those splits, his inconsistent career and the fact that he’s pitching for a fourth or fifth-place team place our algorithms are forced to predict a sub-par year in 2018. **UPDATE** Chacin signed a two-year deal with the Brewers, so given the park shift and his home/road splits, all the more reason to avoid him.

  1. Hanley Ramirez 1B/DH Boston Red Sox

Ramirez has a $22M vesting option in 2019 if he reaches 1,050 plate appearances in 2017 and 2018 combined.  He received 533 plate appearances in 2017 which means the Red Sox will make sure he doesn’t get his 497 more this year.  They brought back Mitch Moreland on a two-year deal and continue to pursue outfielder J.D. Martinez as well as other power bats here in the offseason.  Given the Red Sox intent on limiting his work to avoid the vesting option and Ramirez’ extensive injury history, he’s almost a bust before he even takes the field on Opening Day.

  1. Evan Longoria 3B San Francisco Giants

The veteran third-sacker is coming off another solid year of 20 home runs, 86 RBI and an AL Gold Glove for his defensive work at the hot corner.  However, at age-32, Longoria’s prime years are now behind him and the days of 30 home runs and 100 RBI are a distant memory.  He also won’t help you in the batting average or on-base percentage categories as those numbers continue to decline with age. Add to that, Longoria now resides in the National League after a trade to the Giants and we’ve got a whole other slew of question marks. It’s not so much the ballpark shift that’s a concern as the Trop was never very hitter-friendly, but adjusting to NL pitching on a regular basis is now going to be a hurdle. We also need to understand that these players are human and moving across country to play out the end of his career is also likely to have an adverse effect on him mentally. With all that, I’m out on Longoria for 2018.

  1. Mike Leake RHP Seattle Mariners

The 30-year old right-hander has been shuffled around quite a bit over the last few years. He was impressive after the Cardinals dealt him to Seattle and went 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA in his five starts for the Mariners. While he will benefit from a strong lineup, solid defensive play behind him and a bullpen loaded with power arms, Leake still gives up more hits than innings pitched and lives on the border of seeing his WHIP blow up at times. He’s also not a strikeout guy which hurts in fantasy and to add just one more thing -- I’ve noticed more and more as his career has gone, he struggles to win those tight, one-run games. That doesn’t instill confidence for is manager or his fantasy owners.

  1. Ian Kinsler 2B Los Angeles Angels

Kinsler is excited to join the Angels with hopes of getting back into playoff contention.  However, despite his 22 home runs, he showed significant decline offensively and slashed just .236/.313/.412, the worst of his entire career.  He actually does lay some of the blame on a lack of motivation given the Tigers obvious decline from atop the standings, but at 36 years old, I don’t think you can ignore the decline in skills that come with age.  He’s not going to fall off a cliff, but 14 stolen bases and 18 home runs would be my best guess’ maybe 95 runs and 60 RBI if everything breaks right for him. 

  1. Freddy Galvis SS San Diego Padres

The 28-year old middle infielder is the classic example of a player who is better in reality than he is in fantasy. He is lauded for his glove on a regular basis, but no one in fantasy is looking for his fielding percentage. Offensively, he’s hit 52 home runs in his career with 36 coming at the small confines of Citizens Bank Park. Now he heads to one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in Petco Park and the likelihood of him repeating any of his 2017 totals, save for stolen bases, is pretty low. If you thought he was a late-round flier before, he’s nothing more than waiver fodder now.

  1. Masahiro Tanaka RHP New York Yankees

Despite pitching through a partially-torn UCL, the 29-year old righty, once again, won in double digits finishing with a 13-12 record but with a career high 4.74 ERA in 30 starts.  He also gave up more hits than he recorded innings-pitched for the first time as a Yankee. He did finish with a career-best 194 strikeouts though.  He seems to have defied the odds by pitching through the injury, but one has to won if this is the year that it finally catches up with him.  Think of it like a game of musical chairs. Do you want to be the one left holding the Tanaka when the music stops? Me neither. He’s too much of a gamble and a high risk of being a bust.

  1. Jose Peraza SS Cincinnati Reds

The 24-year old speedster was actually on my bust list last year, so I decided to maintain consistency and keep him here for the second consecutive year.  Peraza is expected to be the Reds every-day shortstop after Zack Cozart signed with the Angels this offseason, but I’m just not buying it. That .297 OBP and the inability to draw a walk stand out as glaring holes in his game and I believe that by June, Eugenio Suarez will move to shortstop and rookie Nick Senzel will be ready to take over third base full-time.  Peraza can help you in the stolen base category, but he’s an inconsistent fielder and profiles closer to a utility player than a regular.

  1. Fernando Rodney Closer Minnesota Twins

It’s about time the wheels fall off the wagon, isn’t it? The 40-year old Rodney, with his 300 career saves that span eight teams, signed with the Twins this offseason and is expected to be their closer. That should mean significant signs and fake bow-and-arrow shots after games, but at his age and with his command and control not what they used to be, I hesitate at the thought of drafting him as my fantasy closer. I think Rodney will be able to help their young relievers, but I don’t think we’re even going to come close to what he posted in 2017, regardless of some of his seemingly solid peripherals. If I had to pick the first closer to lose his job, Rodney is my call and it could come as early as the beginning of June. That, my friends, is pure, unadulterated bust material.

  1. Hunter Pence, RF San Francisco Giants

Even just a cursory glance at the 35-year old’s year-to-year numbers, it’s obvious that Pence is not someone you want for your fantasy roster. The skill-set seems to be in rapid decline and the injuries have worn him down steadily over the years. He’s hit just 13 home runs in each of the last two years and he’s coming off a slash line of .260/.315/.385 which is far below his career norm.  Do not expect a comeback year and don’t be surprised if he becomes a platoon player as early as Opening Day.  My advice would be to take him off your draft lists now and never look back.

  1. Matt Joyce RF Oakland Athletics

Joyce is coming off his best power season after belting 33 doubles and 25 home runs last year for the Athletics but his future outlook with the team seems murky at best.  The A’s acquired Stephen Piscotty from the Cardinals this offseason with the intent of him being their every-day right fielder. That means Joyce’s playing time will be dramatically reduced and his overall performance will surely follow.  The 33-year old has played in 140 games in four of the last five years and the one year he didn’t, 2015, was also his worst year statistically as he hit just .174 over 93 games. People who draft him based on his stats from last year will be incredibly disappointed as I expect him to be a real bust in terms of both reality and fantasy.