Amidst all the injuries, bullpen struggles and chaos from COVID-19, the season nears the halfway point for many teams and the trade deadline looms in just over a week. While many shift focus to football drafts, this remains a pivotal time to make moves in the standings in fantasy baseball. 

Making preemptive moves on the waiver wire or in leagues with daily transactions can save precious FAAB resources so knowing which teams may be active leading up to the deadline may identify stash candidates. Also, trying to weather the storm of pitching injuries and underperforming hitters makes the fantasy landscape even more treacherous than normal after hitting the pause button on spring training and a condensed summer camp as a result. 

For example: 

 

James Paxton will be out for at least weeks due to injury and added this fuel to the fire:

 

Wrist injuries and soft tissue strains continue to plague hitters while elbow, back and shoulder ones affect pitchers on a daily basis.

 

There’s too many to list at this point plus, with the New York Subway series cancelled this weekend:

 

 

This moves to 31 days with at least one game postponed due to COVID-19 and only five days in the truncated season without. 

Trying to stay focused on the column’s premise, it’s time to delve into how the trade deadline could impact rosters and production. Using the playoff odds from Fangraphs, here’s how things project by league broken into three tiers: Teams almost assured of making the postseason, teams muddled in the middle although one can see things in the American League seem more crystallized and the potential sellers on or before August 31st: 

With the National League yet to take shape outside of the top four teams in terms of playoff odds, the week ahead may determine how teams approach the trade deadline along with the rest of the season in the sprint. Injuries and performance remain of the utmost importance when determining which players may rise or fall in terms of fantasy value depending on not only where they end up, but the role they will serve for a new team. 

In an effort to streamline thoughts on all of this, the focus will be on the teams projected to sell and players who may be on the move with expiring contracts but with some caveats as well. First, some teams may not take on reduced prorated salaries due to financial concerns from no ticket revenue. Due to COVID, games played by teams vary making decisions with the deadline only eight days away tenuous at best. 

Here’s the potential sellers (in ascending order by playoff odds) with thoughts on each and this: 

 

Pittsburgh - Almost a perfect microcosm of the Pirates season lies in its best and possibly only trade commodity leaving his last outing with “forearm tightness”

 

Derek Holland tossed an encouraging outing against the Brewers and on a one-year contract. So a team desperate for him as a long reliever or fifth starting spot may enter the fray but it’s slim pickings here. More intriguing, will the Pirates bring up some of its prospects once the deadline lapses? 

Seattle - Working on a one year contract, Taijuan Walker will draw heavy interest in the trade market and Jerry DiPoto will do his best to cash in. There’s a chance he will also move some veteran arms from his bullpen if the price escalates for relievers, and it’s very likely: 

 

Add the Mariners to the list if they move Matt Magill or Yoshihisa Hirano for more prospects with eyes on the future. They could also move Kyle Seager, Austin Nola and Dee Gordon. Stay tuned. 

Detroit - Matt Boyd turned in his best outing of the season on Saturday using his change-up more making his slider more effective. Just in time for teams needing arms in the rotation purveying the market. Jonathan Schoop and Austin Romine are working on one-year deals so teams searching for a boost at second or catcher may be intrigued by them as well. Of course, the addition of Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal help plus if they deal Boyd, will Matt Manning get the call? 

Texas - Early on, it seemed like the Rangers would make a push for the expanded playoffs but the slow starts by Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles may cause a different course of action:

 

If Minor can show any improvement, or a team may wish to use him in the bullpen he’s on an expiring contract. So too is Shin-Soo Choo who owns better underlying numbers than actual ones. A move to a contender may spark his interest. 

Boston - Already striking one deal setting the reliever market, the Red Sox traded its closer Brandon Workman to the Phillies along with Heath Hembree. This puts Matt Barnes in the ninth inning but his walk rate should scare owners worried about ratio statistics. Boston may not be done dealing and if they really tear this down, could Xander Bogaerts be traded? It would be a tough one for the franchise faithful to endure but the shortstop’s opt out clause in 2022 may factor in a decision. Keeping with the theme, J.D. Martinez remains more likely to be traded plus Mitch Moreland, Martin Perez and Kevin Pillar sit on the precipice of free agency in 2021, so they may be had in deals. 

Los Angeles Angels - While avoiding the obvious wasting Mike Trout prime years point, the Angels may want to sell but it’s an aging roster with no obvious players to deal. Hansel Robles looks lost right now so maybe a team kicks the tires seeing if a fresh start turns around his season. Tommy La Stella could be traded as well but he’s a personal favorite of Joe Maddon. Maybe stop giving at-bats to Justin Upton, bring up Brandon Marsh and see where they can improve entering next year makes sense but this feels like a rudderless ship. 

Kansas City - Once the Royals decide to move on from some of its veteran high leverage arms, they may command the market place with teams circling around this veteran: 

 

Rosenthal, Greg Holland and the struggling Ian Kennedy all sit on expiring contracts. The Royals could take a page from the Aroldis Chapman playbook and deal him for prospects then re-sign him in the offseason. This puts Josh Staumont in the stash category since he could get save chances once Rosenthal gets traded. Add him now before the price rises next weekend. Also, the team could decide to deal Maikel Franco and Brad Keller since each can enter free agency this winter. 

Baltimore - While the Orioles continue to be pesky, they face long odds making the playoffs and do not own many viable trade pieces in this market place They could deal Mychal Givens who drifted from save situations over the last two years and makes for a viable arm in setup relief for a contending team. But, the team may roster some under the radar guys who can help teams right now. It starts with Chance Sisco flashing power and patience at catcher. He’s even logging at-bats from the lead-off spot when appearing as the designated hitter. Post-hype breakouts may be happening for Cedric Mullins and Pat Valaika (homered in three straight). Plus, Yusniel Diaz may be up soon. They cannot pitch, but this team should keep on hitting. 

San Francisco - Taking a one year flier on Kevin Gausman made total sense and he’s enhanced his trade value due to performance. Keeping him on the roster would be a mistake so track where he may end up. His home park with the Giants insulated his fly ball propensity so a shift to a hitter friendly venue may detract some of his fantasy appeal. Tony Watson should also be moved with so many left-handed relievers on the roster while other bullpen arms rehab (Reyes Moronta, Sam Coonrod). If Drew Smyly was at full health, he’d also be on the list. 

Miami - Already flush with young talent, Sixto Sanchez made a splashy debut hitting 100 MPH on the radar gun winning his first game. This could be the toughest team for the front office to assess. Taking the long view, they should trade Jonathan Villar as a pending free agent and consider dealing Brandon Kintzler (signed with a club option for next year) in the burgeoning reliever market. 

How teams proceed will ultimately determine fantasy production. Another strong debut occurred on Saturday in Cleveland: 

 

How the Indians handle the very fluid situations of Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac may make the biggest news of the trade deadline. For now:

 

Will the clubhouse allow either back in willingly or trust them going forward? It’s very difficult to regain trust after such an irresponsible act in the present climate of COVID-19 and trying to win a championship. 

It will be a wild week so here’s hoping the COVID-19 concerns move to the background and focus remains on games being played. As of now, the schedule features the following wrinkles: 

Five games scheduled: Atlanta, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees

Six games scheduled: Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets (if cleared from COVID), Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle

Seven games scheduled: Arizona, Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles Angels, Miami (if Mets get cleared), Milwaukee, Minnesota, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Texas, Toronto, Washington

Eight games scheduled: Cincinnati, St. Louis

Players playing time we need to watch: 

  • Brendan Rodgers, Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard (it’s time to play the kids Colorado)

  • Will Miami (Sixto Sanchez) and Cleveland (Triston McKenzie) leave them in the rotation? 

  • Mize, Skubal, Isaac Parades, Jeimer Candelario (stash Manning?)

  • Add Joey Bart

  • Abraham Toro, Ryan Mountcastle, Jake Fraley

  • Who gets saves in St. Louis, the Cubs (it looks like Kimbrel will be back in the saddle), who San Diego trades for, stash Staumont, a Giants closer or back to Gott and much more. 

Last, but not least, if streaming hitters, keep in mind struggling bullpens as much as ballpark effects: 

 

Be sure to stay with Fantasy Alarm to remain ahead of the competition across all fantasy formats. Stay safe and be well. 

Statistical Credits: 

Sportrac.com

Fangraphs.com