While volatility comes with the territory when targeting closers, drafting Roberto Osuna in 2019 looms as a tough decision for those with long memories. Osuna missed 75 games last year due to suspension for violating league rules tied to an off-field incident. Being traded to Houston provides him with the opportunity to be a top-5 closer, but with assumed risk of Osuna losing more time with another misstep.

Despite missing time, Osuna still recorded 21 saves with a crisp 32:4 K:BB in 38 innings. He finished with a 2.37 ERA, 2.45 FIP and 0.97 WHIP. Through four seasons in the majors, Osuna’s yet to finish with a WHIP above one, due in part to his career 4.5 walk percentage.

It’s also tough to believe Osuna will only be entering his Age-24 season when 2019 commences. Over the last three seasons, Osuna’s recorded a 9 - 10 record with 96 saves in 177 innings. His ratio statistics of a 2.95 ERA, 2.52 FIP and 0.93 WHIP come with a 24.5 strikeouts minus walks percentage, a 15.6 swinging strike rate and only 71.1 contact allowed. Osuna’s batted ball data in this time frame of 7.3 home run per fly ball percentage in spite of a fly ball rate just under 40 percent but he yields a 33.3 hard hit percentage.

Although he’s only sixth in saves during the last three seasons, remember his missed time, Osuna leads all qualified relievers in O-Swing percentage (39.1 percent) yet does not reside in the top five in strikeout percentage, in fact, he’s tied for 23rd. It’s a bit of a conundrum.

Not only will predicting his outcomes for 2019 be difficult due to inherent risk, but Osuna’s usage patterns could change in Houston. He’s honed his slider and owns a plus changeup but, this chart illustrates Osuna’s last three years versus how he used his pitches with the Astros:

It goes without saying, this proves to be a small sample size, but still worth noting. Houston shelved his sinker while increasing Osuna’s changeup and cutter usages. Fantasy owners will benefit from more changeups, but there’s some risk of Osuna giving up more fly balls if his hard-hit percentage stays at his 33.3 percent from the last three seasons. Especially with the short porch in left-field at Minute Maid Park.

Prior to delving into Osuna’s projection, his expected statistics (xSTATS) also give reason for some caution. Again, in a limited sample last season, Osuna’s kwFIP of 3.61 sits much higher than his 2018 FIP (2.45). While one can dismiss this, in 2017, Osuna’s kwFIP of 2.45 almost directly correlated with his 2018 final ERA of 2.37. This also coincides with Osuna’s highest contact rate allowed for his career (74.6 percent) last season. Last, Osuna’s expected on-base average of .302 could translate into more traffic.

Before pushing the panic button, if Houston continues to use Osuna’s changeup more, it could defray any pending regression. Steamer’s projection of a 4-3 record, 33 saves, a 3.54 ERA, 3.49 FIP and 1.14 WHIP over 65 innings with a 72:17 K:BB mark seems to heed the warning of xSTATS kwFIP from last season. Factor in the tendency of A.J. Hinch to change roles in the backend of the bullpen if a pitcher struggles, and this further muddies the outlook for Osuna.

He could turn in a career year on a team with World Series aspirations if the change-up continues to surge and he cashes in on his O-Swing rate for more strikeouts. Or, Osuna could lose his grip on the role if he starts slow or struggles during the season. Talent should override, but understand there’s assumed risk in taking Osuna at his current top-90 pick in NFBC drafts as the seventh closer off the board. Invest with eyes wide open.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, MLB.com, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com