The second round of the F1 season is here — the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. It’s being held on one of the fastest circuits on the Formula One schedule, the Jeddah Corniche Circuit, and a far different track from last week. Why does it matter that it’s a far different track? Well, let’s dig in a bit.
Jeddah is more of a long, sweeping, smooth track that allows the cars to remain at high speed throughout the lap. The track last week, as described for a Sky Sports F1 analyst, was like a series of drag strips connected by slow-speed corners. This style of track means that it’ll favor some different constructors who have set up the cars differently than others. Cars with longer wheelbases and those that can control the porpoising will be at an advantage. Porpoising is a term we heard a lot about last week, but it’s actually perhaps a bigger issue this week because of the speed throughout the lap. The teams that can maximize downforce will have an advantage here as well. With the speed in this track, the cars that aren’t set up right will be in for a long day and it can be tough to pass here.
This race in last year’s F1 schedule was the penultimate event. That’s clearly different stakes on the line than we have now. But we can take from it that the leaders were able to stick up front following qualifying. Mid-pack cars were able to jostle for position and we saw four teams get the top-10 bonus. If we’re looking at times from FP1, FP2, FP3, and qualifying for building off of, FP2 and qualifying will be in similar conditions to race time.
Playbook
Captain Picks
Anyone listed in the captain spot can be played in the regular spot, it’s just they’re better suited for the points bonus.
Charles Leclerc - Ferrari - P2 - $17,400
Leclerc was fully expecting to be on the pole for the race and in reality, wasn't that far off from leading the pack. In fact, if he gets a great start from the grid, he could overtake Sergio Perez on Lap 1 and hold the lead. The Leclerc-driven Ferrari has been one of the fastest cars all week and they’ve really mastered the downforce in this new package. In the captain spot though, we’re going to need him to lead laps and win to maximize the points which might make him a slightly better play in a regular driver spot.
Sergio Perez - Red Bull - P1 - $13,800
Perez is on the pole. That’s usually a recipe for a good amount of points in F1 DFS. At a track with tough passing zones and a lot of speed in the Red Bull, he should stick up front pretty well. Let’s also keep in mind that he specifically mentioned in the post-qualifying interview that the team was focusing on getting the speed in the race, which could mean there’s more speed to come.
George Russell - Mercedes - P6 - $12,900
Russell is the long Merc inside the top-10. That’s definitely a shock. However, it means that he could be in for a day of beating his teammate, Lewis Hamilton, and getting a bit of a boost in the captain spot. The speed hasn’t fully been there for Mercedes yet this year but it doesn’t seem to be bugging Russell. He also qualified on medium compound tires instead of softs which means there should be some more speed in the car for the race to pick up a couple of spots in the grid.
Yuki Tsunoda - Alphatauri - P20 - $5,400
Tsunoda didn’t get a qualifying lap in due to an issue that popped up in FP3. It was a cooling system issue that should be able to be fixed without much concern. What does this mean for DFS though? It means that he’s starting at the end of the grid and so he’s ripe for picking up Spots vs. Grid Position points. The Alphatauris have been quick in practice when on track and Tsunoda was a beast in the SvGP points last week as well. All of those points are 1.5x better with him as a captain.
Driver Picks
Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes - P16 - $10,200
Hamilton had his worst qualifying session in five years on Saturday when he qualified P16. The car wasn’t that bad in practice though, specifically in FP2. If Mercedes can make the proper adjustments on the car and get the balance closer to practice, he’ll be picking up spots throughout the race. The upside for Spots vs. Grid Position points and the strategists at Mercedes is what makes Hamilton intriguing.
Kevin Magnussen - Haas - P10 - $8,000
So this is a bit of a cheap play for some bonus points, but here it is. His teammate had an awful crash in qualifying — he’s fine and not injured — but he won’t be racing and that means that Magnussen is basically guaranteed the defeated teammate bonus. Let’s also not forget that he’s capable of running in the top-10 for the race as well. We’ve got to look for sneaky ways to get points and Magnussen does that for us.
Lando Norris - McLaren - P11 - $6,800
For the first time this year, McLaren makes the playbook. It’s really only because there’s an extenuating circumstance. Norris was faster that his teammate all week and has now out qualified his teammate two weeks in a row. All that being said, he’s still starting P11 but should be able to run about four spots better than that and faster than Daniel Ricciardo who is awaiting a penalty stemming from qualifying. Folks might still be off of McLaren given last week but the shot is there for a good day from Norris.
Esteban Ocon - Alpine - P5 - $5,600
Ocon has been quicker than Fernando Alonso all year including last week at Bahrain. That’s been the case this weekend again. Ocon was faster at FP2 and in qualifying — starting two spots better than his teammate. If he can hold that gap, we’ll get a nice points day from him with finish position and defeated teammate being solid.
Constructor Picks
Ferrari - $10,800
Here we are again. Ferrari in podium spots on the grid following qualifying. This appears to be the Scuderia’s year, at least to start, and we should be capitalizing on that. They’ll be popular again like they were last week, but there’s a reason for that. Leclerc and Carlos Sainz have top-end speed and a great shot at laps led and a podium finish bonus.
Red Bull - $9,800
It’s setting up to be another shootout between Ferrari and Red Bull on Sunday. Perez is on the pole and Max Verstappen is starting P4 with a great shot of outrunning at least one of the Ferraris. If he can at least outrun one, they can nab the podium bonus on top of great finishing position points and some laps led on top of that.
Alfa Romeo - $5,800
They nabbed the top-10 finishing bonus last week at Bahrain and they are in a great spot to do that again this week. There are a few drivers between Guanyu Zhou and the top-10 but he could outrun the McLarens, especially if Ricciardo is penalized, and there are some other beatable cars in the mix there too. The Alfa Romeos ran well in practice as well. At this price, all we need is solid finishes and the bonus point to hit at this price.
Alpine - $5,200
This is a similar case to Alfa Romeo in that we’re here for the top-10 finish bonus. They grabbed that last week and are primed to do it once more at Jeddah. This is about the cheapest we should be looking in terms of constructors because the other three below Alpine in salary have some concerns heading into the race. Playing Alpine though means that it’s tough to go with the correlation between captain and constructor so be aware of that.