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100 Thieves (North America Rank: #3) vs. FaZe (North America Rank: #4) - 5:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: 100 Thieves (-170) | FaZe (+130)
Map Handicap: 100 Thieves -1.5 (+165) | FaZe +1.5 (-210)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-140)
100 Thieves - Stats past three months:
Asuna 1.20 Rating | 258 Average Combat Score | 0.92 Kills Per Round
nitr0 1.12 Rating | 206 Average Combat Score | 0.79 Kills Per Round
Hiko 1.05 Rating | 194 Average Combat Score | 0.67 Kills Per Round
Ethan 0.99 Rating | 199 Average Combat Score | 0.69 Kills Per Round
steel 0.85 Rating | 178 Average Combat Score | 0.65 Kills Per Round
FaZe - Stats past three months:
corey 1.20 Rating | 251 Average Combat Score | 0.87 Kills Per Round
babybay 1.20 Rating | 254 Average Combat Score | 0.86 Kills Per Round
ZachaREEE 1.02 Rating | 185 Average Combat Score | 0.69 Kills Per Round
BabyJ 0.98 Rating | 195 Average Combat Score | 0.69 Kills Per Round
Rawkus 0.93 Rating | 177 Average Combat Score | 0.62 Kills Per Round
H2H Data:
These teams last faced each other on March 7th at the Grand Final of VCT 2021: NA Stage 1 Challengers 3. FaZe did win the series 3-0 after starting with a one map advantage since they came from the winner’s bracket, but there was little at stake, so I am not putting too much weight into these results. The top four teams were guaranteed a spot in Masters 1, so both teams had already secured their main objective, meaning that the Grand Final was a competition for $10,000, seeding, and a bit of pride. 100 Thieves are the strategically superior team, so it makes sense that they would lose a relatively meaningless match where they might not want to show too much of their playbook. One thing to note is that Marved was still on FaZe for that series, and BabyJ does appear to be an upgrade for them as he has thrived in the sentinel role.
Projected Maps:
100 Thieves bans Bind
FaZe bans Icebox
100 Thieves picks Haven
FaZe picks Ascent
Breeze is the decider map.
Prediction/Narrative:
100 Thieves win 2-0. Both teams will view this series as a crucial spot for them to earn their way into Masters Berlin, especially since they lucked out being on the opposite side of the bracket as Sentinels. The winner of this series will just need to beat the winner of XSET/Luminosity to secure a spot in Berlin, so whichever team comes out on top here will be in great shape moving forward. I think that 100T will handle FaZe with ease now that the stakes are high. Many of these teams are playing this tournament from Texas, including 100 Thieves and FaZe, so this will almost be similar to a LAN environment with low ping on both sides.
FaZe should ban Icebox, which means 100 Thieves are likely to go for Haven, which has been a strong map for them in the past, but they have lost it their past two times. Both of those losses were in overtime against quality teams (Sentinels & XSET), so they should still feel comfortable picking Haven, especially since FaZe got destroyed by TSM just the other week on that map, 2-13. I predict that 100T will win 13-8 on Haven if it is played.
Ascent has been the most played map for FaZe recently, and they have had a ton of success on it, so they should pick it here since 100Thieves will probably ban Bind instead. FaZe have won nine in a row on Ascent and the map could play out very competitively. I have 100 Thieves winning 13-11 on Ascent if it is played, but it is a coinflip of a map in my opinion. FaZe’s map pick should be their only chance of making any noise in this series, and 100 Thieves will probably take the series 2-1 if this goes to three maps. These teams will not want to waste this golden opportunity of qualifying for Berlin on the ‘easy side’ of the bracket, so I imagine that these maps will stay pretty tight with neither side willing to concede regardless of the score.
Favorite PrizePicks Play:
Asuna (100 Thieves) - 84.5 Fantasy Score
Last three maps played on Haven
07/11 vs. Sentinels (13-15 Overtime Loss): 29 Kills + 4 Assists = 62 Fantasy Points as Jett
07/10 vs. XSET (12-14 Overtime Loss): 19 Kills + 6 Assists = 44 Fantasy Points as Jett
07/09 vs. Envy (13-9 Win): 17 Kills + 3 Assists = 37 Fantasy Points as Jett
Last three maps played on Ascent
07/10 vs. XSET (10-13 Loss): 10 Kills + 6 Assists = 26 Fantasy Points as Phoenix
07/03 vs. Noble (13-9 Win): 21 Kills + 3 Assists = 45 Fantasy Points as Phoenix
07/02 vs. SoaR (13-7 Win): 9 Kills + 8 Assists = 27 Fantasy Points as Phoenix
Tony’s Play: Over 84.5 Fantasy Score
100 Thieves have been utilizing a single duelist lineup on every map in recent months, even on newer maps like Icebox and Breeze where many teams are using two duelists. Asuna is the featured duelist for this team, and his aggressive playstyle puts him at the top of his team in terms of Rating, ACS, and KPR in the past three months. His 258 ACS in the past three months is even more impressive when you consider that his next highest teammate is only at 206 ACS during that time. Asuna has averaged 0.92 kills per round, and his next highest teammate is below 0.80, so he is certainly the hard carry for 100 Thieves. On FaZe, you have corey and babybay who both play duelists and share the load of carrying the team, while 100 Thieves really rely on Asuna to be the guy. 100T have faced some stiff competition in their recent matches, but they should have a clear tactical advantage against FaZe, and this should be a really favorable spot for Asuna. It would be nice to see Icebox, where Asuna set the VCT kill record with 48 kills against Version1 back in July, but I do expect FaZe to ban that map. The map pick of 100 Thieves should still be high scoring for Asuna, and then FaZe’s map pick has potential to be even better since it will probably be the closer of the two maps. 84.5 may seem like a high projection, but if 100 Thieves are to win this series then Asuna should have no issues exceeding it, plus a strong showing from FaZe could simply mean more rounds for Asuna to score points. I love the upside with the over in this spot.
**Favorite Pairing:
Asuna (100 Thieves) - Over 84.5 Fantasy Score
yay (Envy) - Over 80.5 Fantasy Score
**Bonus Favorite 4 Pick Power Play (small)
Asuna (100 Thieves) - Over 84.5 Fantasy Score
yay (Envy) - Over 80.5 Fantasy Score
Shanks (Rise) - Under 66.5 Fantasy Score
PureR (XSET) - Under 74.5 Fantasy Score