League of Legends European Championship

Summer Split / July 2nd, 2022

 

At roughly the halfway point for the Summer Split, Europe stands to be one of the closest leagues in terms of standings. The 7th place teams (Astralis and Misfits) sit only two games behind the 1st place teams (Excel, Fnatic, and Rogue) and there are five weeks of games left to play. How teams come off this break is going to be a strong determining factor on who makes the LEC playoffs and who does not. Historical tendencies are going to be huge in determining which organizations will most likely come out swinging and which will have fallen behind. With a closely packed race and great players to pick from, let’s dive in!

 

 

 

League of Legends LEC Matchups

  • (-360) Excel Esports v Astralis (+265)
  • (+365) BDS Esports v MAD Lions (-600)
  • (+183) Misfits v Fnatic (-200)
  • (+460) SK Gaming v G2 Esports (-800)
  • (+151) Team Vitality v Rogue (-190)



League of Legends DFS Fantasy Breakdown

Game #1: Excel Esports v Astralis

Game Breakdown: Like I said in the opening overview of the slate, a team’s reputation in terms of preparation is going to be huge for this weekend. XL had historically been pretty lukewarm in terms of investment into players, coaches, and infrastructure. This year we have seen a drastically different approach which included an offseason boot camp in Korea as well as bringing in veteran talent in Mikyx to bring stability to the lineup. These transitions have fundamentally changed the way this team plays and how they look in game. This is the primary reason why Patrik is averaging nearly 5 kills a game and is second in the LEC in terms of kills (34). AST is looking more competitive than they have in past years and I think the biggest factor is the addition of Xerxe. AST have some sort of purpose now when they move around the map and it has cleaned up some of their early game issues. The problem here for them is just how strong XL is in the early game (both in micro and macro play) and how they use those advantages to win games. 

Favorite Picks: Patrik (XL: $11,400/$7,600), Nukeduck (XL: $7,200), Excel Esports ($5,200)

Value Picks: Kobbe (AST: $9,900/$6,600), Xerxe (AST: $6,400)

Cann’s Match Pick: Excel Esports  


 

Game #2: BDS Esports v MAD Lions

Game Breakdown: Maybe the most lopsided matchup of the day, it is hard to see how BDS win this matchup. The MAD Lions dropped some tough games in their first half of the Summer Split but that stemmed more from their mistakes rather than the opposing team exploiting some systemic problem within the MAD Lions gameplan. What does this mean? MAD are really good at game-planning and coming into a match with a clear strategy that they want to execute on. Team BDS just doesn’t have the quality across their roster to consistently win in this fashion. MAD’s biggest addition of Nisqy has brought stability to the roster that makes those games less likely. If there was an area for BDS to pick up an advantage, it would be in the top lane though. Agressivo has the third most kills among top laners (18, only one kill behind MAD’s Armut) and has a near 70% team kill participation rate. He will gain leads in the early game and look to use that gold advantage in the mid game.  

Favorite Picks: Nisqy (MAD: $11,700/$7,800), Elyoya (MAD: $7,600), MAD Lions ($5,400) 

Value Picks: Agressivo (BDS: $5,400)

Cann’s Match Pick: MAD Lions  


 

Game #3: Misfits v Fnatic

Game Breakdown: Another week, another breakdown reminding you that Vetheo is the only reason Misfits is relevant. It is almost shhocking how much this teams relies on Vetheo to show up for them to have success. On days where Misfits do a poor job drafting for him or he has a down day, it looks like Misfits have never played together before. In matchups where Vetheo can snowball early leads, teams can’t keep up. Vetheo does have more kills than MAD’s mid-laner Humanoid (22 to 16) but Humanoid has a much better KDA (5.2 v 3.4). Humanoid dies less and can get around the map much more effectively than his lane opponent. Humanoid focuses on how can he join skirmishes and help his team rather than how Vetheo plays which is just to win lane. Fnatic may end up keeping it close because of their playstyle but their macro play is just so much better than that of Misfits. 

Favorite Picks: Upset (FNC: $10,800/$7,200), Hylissang (FNC: $5,400), Razork (FNC: $6,800)

Value Picks: Irrelevant (MSF: $5,000), Vetheo (MSF: $6,800)

Cann’s Match Pick: Fnatic  


 

Game #4: SK Gaming v G2 Esports

Game Breakdown: The other match on the slate that seems like it is unwinnable for the underdog. G2 isn’t currently in first place but they have shown at different times this split that they should be seen as a potential team to claim the LEC this split. Caps, since his run at the Mid Season Invitational, has looked more like his former self. He is dominant in lane and plays nearly every mid-lane champion like it is an assassin. His damage output is impressive (32%) and leads all mid-laners in kills (37 total, over 5 per game average). SK has a tendency of being upset kings so fading this game for that reason may be ok but outright picking SK to win because you think they are better is ill-advised. 

Favorite Picks: Caps (G2: $12,000/$8,000), Brokeblade (G2: $7,000), Jankos (G2: $7,200)

Value Picks: Seruss (SK: $5,800 

Cann’s Match Pick: G2 Esports 


 

Game #5: Team Vitality v Rogue

Game Breakdown: I cannot wrap my head around why the numbers were set so close on this game. Team Vitality hasn’t shown us over the course of 2022 that they are a quality team. They haven’t beaten any quality opponents and their team coordination is one of the worst in the LEC. They solely rely on individual skill but the flaws in players like Alphari and Carzzy make it so difficult to win games. Rogue is boring and methodical which leads to a lot of people fading them or overlooking the actual raw numbers these players can output. The biggest gap here will be in the bottom lane so look for Comp to put up huge numbers into the Carzzy/Labrov lane. 

Favorite Picks: Comp (RGE: $10,500/$7,000), Trymbi (RGE: $5,400), Rogue ($4,800)

Value Picks: Haru (VIT: $6,200), Perkz (VIT: $6,400)

Cann’s Match Pick: Rogue  

 

Cann’s League of Legends Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic / $50,000 Salary Cap

 

Captain (x1.5): Upset (FNC: $10,800)

  • Alternate: Flakked (G2: $11,700)

Top: BrokenBlade (G2: $7,000)

  • Alternate: Finn (XL: $6,400)

Jungle: Malrang (RGE: $6,600)

  • Alternate: Markoon (XL: $7,200)

Mid: Nisqy (MAD: $7,800)

ADC: Patrik (XL: $7,600)

Support: Hylissang (FNC: $5,400)

Team: Rogue ($4,800)

 

 



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