A very standard day in the LCS on Saturday makes me even more prepared for massive upsets across the slate today. The LCS in Week 5 of their 8 week season and teams are running out of runway for deciding playoff placement. Mathematically no team has been eliminated from playoff contention yet, but teams like Immortals, Team Solomid, and Dignitas are in the eleventh hour and have to start picking up some wins. The reigning LCS Champions (Evil Geniuses) are continuing to look like they are the standard in NA and no other team has really shown an ability to keep up with them. Sunday is bringing us another slate full of clear favorites, so will everything be chalk? Or will we see dramatic shake ups in the LCS hierarchy? Let’s dive in!
Game #1: Team Liquid (-435) v Counter Logic Gaming (+290)
Game Breakdown: Team Liquid had a stronger showing on Saturday with a win over Immortals. It was a pleasant surprise to see both Bwipo (7-0-4) and Hans sama (5-0-3) show up and carry their weight in this match. For TL to be considered a real threat for the LCS crown, these two players need to continue to have production like this. For CLG, the wheels feel all the way off for them. They are on a 2 game losing streak and have dropped all the way to T-5 (they were in first after the first few weeks of the season) and are sitting at .500. Luger (26 kills, 57 assists) has had his output slip pretty dramatically in the past few weeks. CLG is still a dangerous team but the teeth some thought they had are just not there.
Favorite Picks: Bjergsen (TL: $11,700/$7,800), Bwipo (TL: $6,800), Santorin (TL: $7,400), CoreJJ (TL: $6,400)
Value Picks: Poome (CLG: $4,200), Luger (CLG: $6,200)
Cann’s Match Pick: Team Liquid
Game #2: Golden Guardians (+150) v Cloud9 (-190)
Game Breakdown: Like I warned on Saturday, don’t overinvest in Cloud9. On Saturday we continued to see some of the flaws on this team but it is becoming a little more clear where their weakest links are. Much to my shock, I think Blaber (jungler) may be the biggest liability on the team. His stats (+200 gold advantage @ 10 min, 3+ KDA, and 73% team kill participation) seem to point to a good showing this split. When you watch the games you see that these stats are a bit over-inflated by games where C9 put up huge numbers. In most games Blaber will take ill advised fights and players like Fudge and Jensen will follow up. The most consistent pair has to be Berserker and Zven in the bottom lane and even they have some growth yet to go through. I think Cloud9 will be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs but there is some time yet for them to hit their final form.
Favorite Picks: Jensen (C9: $7,400), Berserker (C9: $7,200), Zven (C9: $5,400)
Value Picks: Licorice (GG: $5,400), Pridestalkr (GG: $6,000), AlbazeOlive (GG: $6,200)
Cann’s Match Pick: Cloud9
Game #3: Evil Geniuses (-185) v 100 Thieves (+140)
Game Breakdown: This should be an absolute banger of a match. This is a rematch of the Spring Split Finals and both teams have aspirations for international success. The real question for me breaking down this matchup will be what version of FBI/huhi will we get? On Saturday we saw FBI pull huge numbers (6 kills, 0 deaths, 4 assists) and he and huhi took over the match. Unfortunately they won’t be facing the TSM bottom lane on Sunday but instead will be trying to slow down possibly the best ADC right now, Danny. Danny leads the LCS with 50 kills and has a 34% team kill share percentage. I think his pricetag is a bit much into such good competition but you cannot deny he can put down great numbers.
Favorite Picks: jojopyun (EG: $11,400/$7,600), Inspired (EG: $7,200), Danny (EG: $8,000), Evil Geniuses ($5,000)
Value Picks: FBI (100T: $6,800), Ssumday (100T: $5,800), 100 Thieves ($4,400)
Cann’s Match Pick: Evil Geniuses
Game #4: Team Solomid (-120) v Immortals (-108)
Game Breakdown: While we haven’t necessarily seen the wins come through for Immortals, it is hard to deny that they have had an uptick in quality of play since the break. Even Lost, who couldn’t find the right side of a kill, was able to pick up 3 kills against Team Liquid on Saturday. Team Solomid has had some flashes (especially with their new bottom lane of Instinct and Chime) but the team still feels disjointed. I would call this more of a coinflip than others and with the heavy pricetags of TSM players, I would either fade the matchup or scoop up IMT players for cheap.
Favorite Picks: Instinct (TSM: $11,100/$7,400), Spica (TSM: $6,800), Maple (TSM: $7,000)
Value Picks: Lost (IMT: $10,500/$7,000), Revenge (IMT: $5,600)
Cann’s Match Pick: Immortals
Game #5: FlyQuest (-190) v Dignitas (+152)
Game Breakdown: With a bounceback win on Saturday, FlyQuest has repositioned themselves back into the conversation among top tier teams. Sitting at fourth, FLY have had some really good performances (like their sub-30 minute win over Golden Guardians on Saturday) and also some bad ones. The consistent piece in this matchup is how bad Dignitas is as a team. They sit at the bottom of the table (2-8) and have one of the worst team K/D ratios in the LCS (0.79).It will take FLY some time to snowball a lead but by end-game team fights, FLY should be running through the DIG lineup.
Favorite Picks: Johnsun (FLY: $11,400/$7,600), Aphromoo (FLY: $5,600), Josedeodo (FLY: $6,600)
Value Picks: Blue (DIG: $9,600/$6,400), Gamsu (DIG: $5,200)
Cann’s Match Pick: FlyQuest
DraftKings Example Lineup
Captain (x1.5): Berserker (C9: $10,800)
Alternate: FBI (100T: $10,200)
Top: Impact (EG: $6,600)
Jungle: Josedeodo (FLY: $6,600)
Alternate: Spica (TSM: $6,800)
Mid: Bjergsen (TL: $7,800)
ADC: Johnsun (FLY: $7,600)
Support: Chime (TSM: $5,200)
Team: FlyQuest ($5,400)
Alternate: 100 Thieves ($4,400)
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