Copenhagen Flames (World rank: #24) vs. AGO (World rank: #25) - 11:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: CPH Flames (-150) | AGO (+125)
Map Handicap: CPH Flames -1.5 (+180) | AGO +1.5 (-225)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of Elisa Invitational Fall 2021 - Swiss Round 3 (Teams with a 2-0 record). The winning team will advance to the playoffs.
- CPH Flames - Rating at event: jabbi 1.35 | nicoodoz 1.28 | roeJ 1.28 | Zyphon 1.28 | HooXi 1.00
- CPH Flames - Rating past three months: roeJ 1.20 | jabbi 1.11 | nicoodoz 1.11 | Zyphon 1.08 | HooXi 0.91
- AGO - Rating at event: snatchie 1.38 | leman 1.19 | rallen 1.15 | Furlan 0.89 | F1KU N/A
- AGO - Rating past three months: rallen 1.17 | snatchie 1.12 | F1KU 1.06 | leman 1.01 | Furlan 0.95
H2H Data:
- These teams have faced each other twice this year. Their most recent meeting was a best-of-one on Mirage that Copenhagen won 16-14, though kRaSnaL, the current sixth man for AGO, played instead of F1KU. RoeJ led the way with 23 kills and a 1.22 Rating, and six other players finished with at least 20 kills (Zyphon, nicoodoz, jabbi, kRaSnaL, leman, & rallen). CPH & AGO also played each other in July back when reatz was still on AGO, and Copenhagen swept that best-of-three (16-12 Ancient / 16-7 Vertigo). Zyphon was the top performer on the server with 46 kills and a 1.38 Rating across two maps.
Prediction/Narrative: Copenhagen Flames win 2-0.
Copenhagen Flames looked like the much better team when these teams last met. They had an 11-4 lead on Mirage, won pistol in the next half, but they couldn’t convert the following force buy, otherwise that result could have easily been a lot more one-sided. AGO just signed kRaSnaL, an 18 year old FPL player, as their ‘sixth man’ in mid-September, and he has played every map for AGO at this event so far instead of F1KU. They have only played one best-of-three at Elisa Invitational Fall 2021 (Dignitas also gave them a forfeit win, thus their 2-0 record) but kRaSnaL played all three maps. It’s unclear what the plan is for AGO moving forward, and it is entirely possible that kRaSnaL makes an appearance on Tuesday, despite not being in the Draftkings player pool, though F1KU is currently listed in the starting lineup.
CPH Flames arrived in Stockholm on Monday, as they are competing in the IEM Fall 2021 Europe LAN event later this week. You could spin the narrative that qualifying for the Elisa Invitational playoffs is not their top priority at the moment, and that could be entirely true, but I tend to think that spirits will be high for a team that is playing together from the same location. AGO also have to play another match on Tuesday afterwards against Wisla Krakow for ESEA Premier S38 Europe, which is certainly not an ideal situation. Copenhagen Flames will want to carry some momentum into the event, though they might not want to dig too deep into their playbook against AGO. CPH Flames have been red hot and had won eight series in a row prior to their recent loss against Lyngby Vikings. I’m not too concerned about that result considering CPH Flames played well but just lost some key rounds, plus Lyngby Vikings are solid (now ranked #28 in the world), and they are also a Danish organization, and we know that anything can happen in a ‘Danish Derby’.
Ancient is the most played map for both of these teams as they both like to pick it. AGO should continue to ban Overpass, while Copenhagen will do the same with Dust2. Either way, Copenhagen has a huge advantage in the map pool considering they should remove Dust2, which has been AGO’s best map in the past three months with a 12-2 W/L record across 14 maps played. CPH Flames are the only team in the world that has played more officials than AGO on Ancient in the past three months (23 vs. 22), and they have a better win rate with a 20-3 W/L record compared to a 16-6 W/L record for AGO. Vertigo is a strong map for Copenhagen while it has been AGO’s weakest map, and Copenhagen should also have an advantage on Mirage & Nuke, while Inferno could be a bit of a toss-up. CPH Flames are playing excellent Counter-Strike at the moment, and the map pool looks to be well in their favor, so I have them winning here, and I think they are good enough to sweep with relative ease. My ideal play would be to stack three from Copenhagen, with roeJ & nicoodoz as the priority plays. Jabbi has played well at this event, while Zyphon has looked good in the past against AGO, so both look like solid values, while HooXi is a bit riskier. I would not recommend focusing on AGO, but rallen makes the most sense on that side, while snatchie is another player to consider. I would fade F1KU given the six man structure of AGO’s lineup.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):
nicoodoz ($8,600) | roeJ ($9,400) | Zyphon ($6,800) | jabbi ($7,600) | rallen ($7,800)
****THE MATCH BETWEEN DIGNITAS & YOUNG NINJAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. FIVE-STACK THE FIRST MATCH OF THIS SLATE FOR OPTIMAL CHANCE AT WINNING****
Dignitas (World rank: #33) vs. Young Ninjas (World rank: #48) - 2:00 P.M. ET