HAVU (World rank: #34) vs. Apeks (World rank: #54) - 11:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: HAVU (-265) | Apeks (+210)
Map Handicap: HAVU -1.5 (+115) | Apeks +1.5 (-140)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-150)
- This is a best-of-three series for Elisa Invitational Fall 2021 - Swiss Round 3 (Teams with a 1-1 record).
- HAVU - Rating at event: ZOREE 1.12 | xseveN 0.95 | Aerial 0.94 | jemi 0.89 | sLowi 0.80
- HAVU - Rating past three months: xseveN 1.11 | Aerial 1.08 | ZOREE 1.04 | sLowi 1.01 | jemi 0.93
- Apeks - Rating at event: Polly 1.16 | Relaxa 1.05 | AcilioN 0.99 | FREDDyFROG 0.99 | dennis 0.92
- Apeks - Rating past three months: dennis 1.07 | FREDDyFROG 1.06 | AcilioN 1.01 | Relaxa 0.97 | Polly 0.79
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams did face on April 15th, but AcilioN had just recently signed with Apeks and wasn’t playing with the team yet, while Grusarn was also still in their lineup. Apeks did win that best-of-one 16-3 on Dust and dennis had 29 kills with a 2.21 Rating.
Prediction/Narrative: HAVU wins 2-0.
The first thing to note here is that on September 22nd, Grusarn announced that he was taking some time away from the team, so Apeks is playing with their coach, Polly, for now instead. Polly did actually have a strong showing against Sinners last Wednesday, but his 0.78 Rating on the year hardly compares to Grusarn’s 1.02 Rating during that time, and Apeks should be at a disadvantage accordingly. Another less important thing to consider is that Apeks are also competing in ESEA Premier S38 Europe, which means they have another match on Tuesday against Sangal, and could potentially take away some of their focus, while HAVU are only competing in Elisa Invitational Fall 2021 at the moment.
Overpass has been Apeks’ favorite map with their current lineup, and I expect them to pick it once again on Monday. HAVU have a more well-rounded map pool, though they typically pick Dust2 if it is available, so that is my expectation in this spot. Overpass would be Apeks’ best chance of taking a map, but we just saw HAVU beat SKADE on Overpass last week, and I favor HAVU on that map. HAVU’s biggest strength on Overpass has been their ability to turn around man disadvantages with a 34.0% 4v5 conversion rate across six maps played in the past three months, and their T side has actually been their stronger side with a 52.9% win rate. XseveN led the way against SKADE with 23 Kills and a 1.31 Rating in a 16-11 win, while ZOREE has been the highest rated player on HAVU on Overpass in the past three months with a 1.24 Rating. We have seen some questionable losses from HAVU on Overpass in the past, but they should still be heavy favorites on Dust2, and I really like their chances on a potential decider map, especially if it ends up as Inferno or Nuke.
Stacking three from HAVU is my preferred option, and ZOREE is my favorite play at only $7,400. He has been the highest rated player on the team on Overpass in the past three months, and he has been the highest rated overall at this event. With the AWP in his hands, he should have a high floor with tremendous upside as well. Aerial & xseveN also look like excellent spend up options, while sLowi & jemi are both fairly risky value plays. My favorite option on Apeks would be AcilioN at $6,200, but I would rather get so sLowi or jemi since I think HAVU should roll.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):
ZOREE ($7,400) | xseveN ($9,200) | Aerial ($8,400) | sLowi ($6,400) | jemi ($5,600) | AcilioN ($6,200)
SKADE (World rank: #20) vs. DBL PONEY (World rank: #29) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: SKADE (-135) | DBL PONEY (+110)
Map Handicap: SKADE -1.5 (+205) | DBL PONEY +1.5 (-255)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for Elisa Invitational Fall 2021 - Swiss Round 3 (Teams with a 2-0 record). The winning team advances to the playoffs.
- SKADE - Rating at event: dennyslaw 1.41 | SHiPZ 1.36 | Rainwaker 1.24 | Duplicate 1.07 | KalubeR 1.06
- SKADE - Rating past three months: dennyslaw 1.13 | Rainwaker 1.09 | SHiPZ 1.06 | Duplicate 1.00 | KalubeR 1.00
- DBL PONEY - Rating at event: Lucky 1.21 | bodyy 1.20 | Ex3rcice 1.20 | Djoko 1.03 | afro 1.01
- DBL PONEY - Rating past three months: bodyy 1.12 | Djoko 1.09 | afro 1.09 | Lucky 1.08 | Ex3rcice 1.01
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other on September 3rd at the quarter-finals of the European Development Championship 5. SKADE swept 2-0 (16-11 Dust2 / 16-9 Overpass) and KalubeR led the way with 48 kills and a 1.39 Rating across two maps. Djoko also had a strong performance for DBL PONEY with 43 kills and a 1.21 Rating, including an ace on Dust2, while his next best teammate only had a 0.94 Rating.
Prediction/Narrative: DBL PONEY wins 2-1.
Both of these teams are competing at IEM Fall 2021 Europe which starts later this week and is a LAN event where they can earn RMR points to qualify for the major. DBL PONEY arrived at their boot camp on September 20th, and since then they have already beaten another quality Bulgarian opponent, Fiend, as part of this event. SKADE arrived in Stockholm on September 24th (after missing their flight twice, according to Duplicate) and have been quarantined the past couple of days. I think that DBL PONEY have an advantage here since they have had more time to adjust with their boot camp, and they even already played an official match at their current set-up. Also, IEM Fall 2021 is a much more significant event to DBL PONEY, since they already have RMR points from Flashpoint 3, and they have a realistic chance of qualifying for the major with a good showing. Thus, motivation should be at an all-time high for this French roster that is also still looking for an organization. I think they will want to come into IEM Fall in the best form possible, and a revenge win against SKADE after their loss earlier this month would be a significant confidence booster.
DBL PONEY picked Dust2 last time when these teams played, while SKADE picked Overpass, and Ancient ended as the decider. SKADE typically ban Nuke, but they have other weaknesses in their map pool, like Vertigo & Ancient, and DBL PONEY might be better off going for one of those maps this time around. They picked Ancient recently against Fiend, and I could see them doing it again here, though they lost the first time 12-16. DBL PONEY may be looking to establish Ancient as a strong map for themselves prior to IEM Fall, and it would probably make the most sense as their pick against SKADE, who have generally struggled on that map with a 2-5 W/L record with their current lineup. Overpass might be the map pick of SKADE again since DBL PONEY should continue to ban Mirage, but DBL PONEY have won three in a row on Overpass against solid opponents: Fiend, Apeks and 777. SKADE don’t really have another clear option though since both teams have been great on Inferno. Overall, I think the map pool is pretty even here, and DBL PONEY can give themselves a slight advantage by picking Ancient, or even Vertigo. I see this being a back-and-forth series, but I have DBL PONEY coming out on top with all things considered.
Stacking three from DBL PONEY would be my preferred play, though having exposure to SKADE might make some sense since this could be a close series, and the odds do have SKADE as a slight moneyline favorite to win. Afro struggled when these teams last met, but he should still be a really safe play as the primary AWPer for the French side, and his price just seems too low at $7,600. Bodyy also looks like a good option at $8,600, but I would prefer afro at the lower salary. Djoko popped off last time against SKADE, which makes him an interesting option at $6,600. Lucky & Ex3rcice are fairly risky plays, but I think that they are both cheap enough to consider in this spot. Dennyslaw makes the most sense as a one-off play from SKADE, while SHiPZ looks like a good value on that side at $7,000, though DBL PONEY is my priority here.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):
afro ($7,600) | bodyy ($8,600) | Djoko ($6,600) | Lucky ($5,800) | Ex3rcice ($5,000) | dennyslaw ($9,000) | SHiPZ ($7,000)