ENCE (World rank: #10) vs. BIG (World rank: #13) - 7:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: ENCE (-205) | BIG (+165)
Map Handicap: ENCE -1.5 (+150) | BIG +1.5 (-180)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 4 (teams with a 2-1 record). Winning team advances to the Legends stage.
- ENCE - stats at event: dycha 1.18 | Spinx 1.16 | doto 1.08 | Snappi 0.99 | hades 0.90
- ENCE - stats past three months: Spinx 1.15 | dycha 1.14 | hades 1.11 | Snappi 1.02 | doto 0.99
- BIG - stats at event: tabseN 1.16 | syrsoN 1.15 | gade 1.14 | k1to 1.11 | tiziaN 0.85
- BIG - stats past three months: tabseN 1.09 | syrsoN 1.04 | gade 0.96 | k1to 0.95 | tiziaN 0.94
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: BIG wins 2-1.
I think that both of these teams have essentially met expectations at the Major so far. BIG’s only loss came against Copenhagen Flames, who have been on fire and are the third highest rated team at the event, and BIG also had quality wins against Entropiq & Renegades. ENCE’s only loss was against FaZe, who have been the number one rated team at PGL Major Stockholm, plus they beat GODSENT as expected and got a solid win over MOUZ. ENCE have a stronger map pool on paper, but BIG made a name for themselves in 2020 with their crafty plays which helped them reach number one in the world, and I think they will go deep into the playbook here. ENCE have a much higher win rate on a map like Mirage, but we saw BIG beat NAVI on Mirage at the end of August, which goes to show that they can step up in tough match-ups. I’m not sold on ENCE being a (-205) moneyline favorite here, and I think the Germans are a live underdog, so I’m predicting BIG to win here in a close one.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
tabseN ($8,000) | syrsoN ($7,000) | k1to ($5,400) | gade ($6,200) | dycha ($8,600)
Movistar Riders (World rank: #15) vs. TYLOO (World rank: #56) - 7:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Movistar Riders (-315) | TYLOO (+245)
Map Handicap: Movistar Riders -1.5 (Even) | TYLOO +1.5 (-125)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-160)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 4 (teams with a 1-2 record). Losing team is eliminated.
- Movistar Riders - stats at event: alex 1.04 | DeathZz 1.04 | dav1g 1.04 | mopoz 0.97 | SunPayus 0.76
- Movistar Riders - stats past three months: SunPayus 1.16 | mopoz 1.11 | alex 1.09 | DeathZz 1.02 | dav1g 0.90
- TYLOO - stats at event: DANK1NG 1.23 | somebody 1.11 | Attacker 1.01 | Summer 0.87 | SLOWLY 0.84
- TYLOO - stats past three months: Summer 1.20 | DANK1NG 1.19 | Attacker 1.18 | somebody 1.10 | SLOWLY 1.07
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Movistar Riders win 2-0.
TYLOO have earned some respect with their win against Sharks and their decent showing in a loss to Heroic, but the depth of their map pool, or lack thereof, was exposed by Spirit when they lost 3-16 on Overpass. The biggest advantage that TYLOO have had going their way is that they could hope to catch teams off guard, but that seems a lot less likely at this stage of the event, especially now that we are into the best-of-threes. Plus, Movistar Riders are still a team that feels like they need to prove themselves, so I doubt they overlook this match-up in terms of preparation. TYLOO should ban Nuke, which is one of Movistar Riders best maps with a 14-4 W/L record in the past three months. Also, Vertigo is Movistar Riders’ other favorite map as it is their most played in the past three months, and TYLOO do have a 100% win rate on Vertigo during that time span across four maps played. However, I think the skill disparity will be too great for TYLOO to overcome here, and Movistar should have even more of an advantage as they get deeper into the map pool, so they should be a lock in a best-of-three format.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
alex ($7,800) | SunPayus ($9,600) | mopoz ($8,800) | DeathZz ($6,600)
MOUZ (World rank: #16) vs. Renegades (World rank: #40) - 11:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: MOUZ (-525) | Renegades (+380)
Map Handicap: MOUZ -1.5 (-140) | Renegades +1.5 (+115)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+160) | Under 2.5 (-195)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 4 (teams with a 1-2 record). Losing team is eliminated.
- MOUZ - stats at event: ropz 1.14 | Bymas 1.11 | frozen 1.10 | acoR 1.01 | dexter 0.83
- MOUZ - stats past three months: frozen 1.18 | ropz 1.15 | Bymas 1.11 | acoR 1.01 | dexter 0.97
- Renegades - stats at event: Hatz 1.15 | malta 0.91 | Sico 0.89 | INS 0.89 | aliStair 0.87
- Renegades - stats past three months: INS 1.33 | aliStair 1.23 | Hatz 1.18 | malta 1.17 | Sico 1.14
H2H Data:
These rosters faced each other in February in a best-of-one on Inferno for the IEM Katowice 2021 Play-In Tournament. MOUZ were down 6-12 on their CT side but were able to string together 10 of the following 12 rounds in a 16-14 win. Frozen had the most kills with 29, though ropz had the highest Rating at 1.40.
Prediction/Narrative: MOUZ wins 2-1.
Should MOUZ be a heavy favorite here? Sure. But (-525) moneyline odds feel way too steep against a solid Renegades roster that has not necessarily disappointed so far. MOUZ lost their last two match-ups of the tournament, but they faced two top 10 teams: ENCE & Heroic. Renegades losses came against lower quality teams: BIG & Movistar Riders, however, they have once again proven that they can compete on an international level and are not limited to success in the Oceanic region. The last match-up between these rosters was super close, and I would not be surprised to see this series end up a lot closer than the oddsmakers are expecting. Still, MOUZ have enough maps in their repertoire that they should be able to survive these series even if Renegades steal a map.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
acoR ($6,800) | ropz ($9,000) | frozen ($9,800) | Dexter ($5,800) | Bymas ($8,200) | aliStair ($6,400)
Astralis (World rank: #8) vs. paiN (World rank: #34) - 11:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-485) | paiN (+360)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (-135) | paiN +1.5 (+110)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+155) | Under 2.5 (-190)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 4 (teams with a 1-2 record). Losing team is eliminated.
- Astralis - stats at event: Magisk 1.28 | dupreeh 1.09 | gla1ve 1.06 | Lucky 0.88 | Xyp9x 0.85
- Astralis - stats past three months: Magisk 1.09 | dupreeh 1.06 | Lucky 0.99 | Xyp9x 0.95 | gla1ve 0.90
- paiN - stats at event: saffee 1.20 | hardzao 1.07 | PKL 1.03 | biguzera 1.02 | NEKIZ 0.94
- paiN - stats past three months: saffee 1.24 | biguzera 1.10 | hardzao 1.09 | NEKIZ 1.05 | PKL 0.99
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-0.
On Wednesday, Astralis had their back up against the wall and came out strong against their Brazilian opponents, GODSENT, including a 16-3 win on Nuke. They are in a similar spot here in a do-or-die match against another Brazilian team, paiN, and I am expecting another easy win for the Danes. Astralis have not looked like than elite team at this event so far, but they restored some confidence on Wednesday, and I still have a lot of faith in their veteran players and coach, especially in this spot. Both teams typically ban Mirage, which could lead to an interesting map veto, but I think that Astralis have a huge edge on every single map in the pool against paiN. The Brazilians might look to pick their most played map, Ancient, which could be a test for the Danes since paiN have a 12-4 W/L record on Ancient in the past three months compared to a 1-3 W/L record for Astralis. PaiN should still be very beatable on that map though considering FURIA beat them 16-0 earlier this month.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
magisk ($10,000) | Xyp9x ($7,000) | gla1ve ($6,000) | dupreeh ($9,200) | Lucky ($8,400)