FaZe (World rank: #11) vs. Virtus.pro (World rank: #12) - 6:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-135) | VP (+110)
Map Handicap: FaZe -1.5 (+195) | VP +1.5 (-245)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 3. Winning team advances to the New Legends stage.
- FaZe - stats at event: karrigan 1.45 | broky 1.14 | Twistzz 1.12 | olofmeister 1.07 | rain 1.01
- FaZe - stats past three months: Twistzz 1.13 | broky 1.12 | rain 1.09 | karrigan 0.95 | olofmeister 0.94
- VP - stats at event: YEKINDAR 1.45 | buster 1.25 | Jame 1.10 | Qikert 0.94 | FL1T 0.85
- VP - stats past three months: YEKINDAR 1.22 | Jame 1.21 | FL1T 1.13 | buster 1.04 | Qikert 1.02
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other since Virtus.pro just recently replaced SANJI with FL1T. When the teams played in September with nine of the ten same players on the server, VP won 2-1 (16-2 Mirage / 8-16 Inferno / 16-11 Dust2). Jame dominated that series with 66 kills, 23 deaths and a 1.59 Rating across three maps. These two teams are the second and third highest rated teams at this event (FaZe: 1.16 Rating | VP: 1.12 Rating), and YEKINDAR & karrigan are tied for for the third highest rated player at the event so far with a 1.45 Rating.
Prediction/Narrative: FaZe wins 2-1
Both of these teams are in great shape with a 2-0 record through the first day of the event. FaZe impressed with wins against two solid teams: ENCE & Spirit, meanwhile VP took 30 rounds to get past an opponent they should have beaten easily, paiN, and their win against Movistar Riders was pretty close as VP were down 5-10 after the first half. I like the way that FaZe looked on Tuesday, and they should have an advantage against VP in the best-of-three format based on the strength of their map pool. FaZe will ban Vertigo, which has been one of VP’s strongest maps, while VP typically ban Nuke, which has been one of FaZe’s weakest maps.
I have FaZe winning this in three maps, and I do think it will be a tight series. I prefer getting to FaZe on Draftkings, and Twistzz & broky are reasonably priced as the hard carries. Karrigan may be the oldest player at the event, but he has shown up in a big way so far and has to be considered here. I also like olofmeister’s upside as a veteran at $5,400. I would rather get to YEKINDAR or Jame rather than rain for that price range.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Twistzz ($8,800) | broky ($8,000) | karrigan ($6,400) | olofmeister ($5,400) | YEKINDAR ($8,400) | Jame ($7,600) | rain ($7,200)
Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. Copenhagen Flames (World rank: #14) - 6:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-235) | CPH Flames (+190)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+135) | CPH Flames +1.5 (-165)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 3. Winning team advances to the New Legends stage.
- Heroic - stats at event: stavn 1.38 | cadiaN 1.14 | refrezh 1.12 | TeSeS 1.05 | sjuush 0.85
- Heroic - stats past three months: refrezh 1.16 | stavn 1.12 | cadiaN 1.11 | TeSeS 1.07 | sjuush 1.04
- CPH Flames - stats at event: roeJ 1.66 | nicoodoz 1.21 | HooXi 1.13 | jabbi 0.98 | Zyphon 0.88
- CPH Flames - stats past three months: roeJ 1.17 | nicoodoz 1.12 | jabbi 1.10 | Zyphon 1.06 | HooXi 0.91
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 2-0.
Another day, another Danish derby. If I told you that there were two Danish teams sitting at 2-0, then you probably would have expected one of them to be Astralis, but Copenhagen Flames pounded Astralis 16-6 in the opening match of this tournament. CPH Flames were also solid against BIG with a 13-2 lead on Nuke at the half, though it did take them a little bit to close that map out in a 16-11 win. Through day one, Copenhagen Flames are the highest rated team at the event, but Heroic are not too far behind in fourth (CPH Rating: 1.17 | Heroic Rating: 1.11). TYLOO put up a good fight against Heroic and perhaps caught the Danes by surprise, though Heroic looked locked in against MOUZ. I think that Heroic should have a sizable advantage in a best-of-three, and I’d have them as the clear favorite on Nuke, Overpass, Inferno and Vertigo. Both teams typically remove Dust2, which could make the map veto interesting here. Either way, I think Heroic should have this series pretty easily, despite the good form that Copenhagen has shown as of late.
On Draftkings, I am going back to stacking Heroic even though they were bad against TYLOO for Tuesday’s slate. Heroic should be able to handle Copenhagen in a best-of-three, and the DK pricing still has TeSeS & cadiaN at prices that seem to be way too cheap, which makes them a top priority for me. Stavn has been on fire as the fifth highest rated player at the event so far with a 1.38 Rating and is certainly worth a look at his price. Refrezh seems to be too expensive after being priced up based on recent form, and he continues to be high risk, high reward based on the positions he plays. Sjuush should be a good value play at $6,000. I am fading Copenhagen in this spot.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
TeSeS ($7,000) | cadiaN ($7,800) | stavn ($9,000) | sjuush ($6,000) | refrezh ($9,800)
paiN (World rank: #34) vs. Sharks (World rank: #58) - 10:15 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: paiN (-275) | Sharks (+215)
Map Handicap: paiN -1.5 (+115) | Sharks +1.5 (-140)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-155)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 3. Losing team is eliminated.
- paiN - stats at event: saffee 1.11 | hardzao 1.04 | NEKIZ 0.99 | biguzera 0.97 | PKL 0.81
- paiN - stats past three months: saffee 1.23 | biguzera 1.10 | hardzao 1.09 | NEKIZ 1.05 | PKL 0.98
- Sharks - stats at event: Lucaozy 0.98 | zevy 0.95 | jnt 0.90 | pancc 0.83 | realziN 0.71
- Sharks - stats past three months: zevy 1.18 | Lucaozy 1.14 | pancc 1.08 | realziN 0.98 | jnt 0.96
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: paiN wins 2-1.
Brazilian teams went a combined 0-6 on the first day of the Major, but the region can guarantee a win here with paiN & Sharks facing each other. I was actually really impressed by paiN in both of their losses. They took Virtus.pro to 30 rounds on Inferno, in part thanks to an insane 1v4 clutch from hardzao in round 28. They also took Renegades to 30 rounds on Nuke, which is another respectable result. On the other side, Sharks got completely outclassed by MOUZ on Inferno, 6-16, and they could not get past TYLOO on Mirage, 14-16. I feel like the match-up against TYLOO was a must-win for Sharks, and it’s hard to find many positives for this team at the moment. PaiN should remove Mirage to start, which means Sharks shouldn't have an edge over paiN on any map, besides maybe Inferno, which has been weak for paiN. I’m giving Sharks a map here since both teams are from the same region, which usually makes things more interesting, but I think that paiN should have this series wrapped up on the rest of the map pool, and a 2-0 is certainly still possible.
On Draftkings, paiN is the clear priority for me, and there is no one better to target than the star AWPer, saffee. This should be a good match-up for him, and he has been really solid so far at this event with a 1.11 Rating across two maps despite his team losing both. My next favorite play would be hardzao at $7,400 since his 1.04 Rating at the event stands out, especially after that clutch on Inferno. Biguzera & NEKIZ both look like fine options, while zevy is the only play on Sharks that I would possibly consider.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
saffee ($9,200) | hardzao ($7,400) | biguzera ($8,200) | NEKIZ ($6,600) | zevy ($7,200)
Astralis (World rank: #8) vs. GODSENT (World rank: #23) - 10:15 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-200) | GODSENT (+160)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+150) | GODSENT +1.5 (-185)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 3. Losing team is eliminated.
- Astralis - stats at event: Magisk 0.94 | dupreeh 0.91 | gla1ve 0.90 | Lucky 0.71 | Xyp9x 0.66
- Astralis - stats past three months: Magisk 1.07 | dupreeh 1.05 | Lucky 0.99 | Xyp9x 0.94 | gla1ve 0.85
- GODSENT - stats at event: b4rtin 1.10 | felps 0.90 | dumau 0.84 | TACO 0.78 | latto 0.77
- GODSENT - stats past three months: felps 1.21 | dumau 1.19 | latto 1.10 | b4rtin 1.09 | TACO 0.95
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1.
Astralis have won three Majors, including the last three, but they face elimination at PGL Major Stockholm after a brutal 0-2 start. They got smoked by Copenhagen Flames & Entropiq, 6-16 both times. However, I think that the best-of-three format here should benefit their usual strength of making mid-map and mid-series adjustments. GODSENT looked decent in two tough match-ups on Tuesday. They lost 10-16 to ENCE and 12-16 to Spirit, both times on Nuke. This GODSENT lineup caught some attention with their second place run at IEM Fall 2021 North America, which included a 2-0 sweep over Liquid. They have some solid pieces, and their map pool is fairly solid, but I still think that Astralis has an edge on most maps, specifically Nuke & Inferno, while GODSENT may have an edge on Vertigo considering they have a 10-2 W/L record on that map in the past three months, compared to a 0-4 W/L record for Astralis. I still have faith in this Astralis lineup even with the many changes that have been made, and we can expect a better performance from a player like Xyp9x, who has the most clutches in Major history.
On Draftkings, Astralis makes a lot of sense as our main target. Magisk & dupreeh had the best form on the team through day one, but I am expecting gla1ve and Xyp9x to show up when the team has their back against the wall, so I like targeting the value here the most. Lucky should have upside with the AWP, but the overall expectations for him are perhaps a bit too high. B4rtin would be my favorite play on GODSENT based on his excellent performance on Tuesday with a 1.10 Rating across two maps despite his team losing both. Still, the Danes are my clear priority as I think the Brazilians will win one map at most.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
gla1ve ($6,200) | Xyp9x ($7,000) | magisk ($9,600) | dupreeh ($8,600) | Lucky ($7,800) | b4rtin ($5,400)