Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. G2 (World rank: #9) - 11:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (+120) | G2 (-150)
Map Handicap: Heroic +1.5 (-240) | G2 -1.5 (+195)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Semi-Finals of the Champions Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021. This match will take place at Avicii Arena in front of a live audience.
- Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.15 | sjuush 1.12 | cadiaN 1.09 | TeSeS 1.08 | refrezh 1.06
- Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.14 | refrezh 1.12 | cadiaN 1.09 | sjuush 1.05 | TeSeS 1.05
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.39 | huNter- 1.24 | AmaNEk 1.15 | nexa 1.14 | JaCkz 0.96
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.31 | huNter- 1.13 | AmaNEk 1.05 | nexa 1.01 | JaCkz 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters last met in the upper bracket quarter-finals of Flashpoint 3 where the teams were fighting for RMR points to earn their spot in this Major. G2 won that series 2-1 (16-11 Inferno / 14-16 Nuke / 16-7 Mirage) and NiKo led the way with 71 kills and a 1.53 Rating across three maps. Nobody on the Heroic side had a positive K/D ratio, and all five Danes finished with a Rating below one.
Map Projections:
Heroic removes Dust2
G2 removes Overpass
Heroic picks Nuke
G2 picks Mirage
Heroic removes Ancient
G2 removes Vertigo
Inferno is left over
Heroic - Key stats on Nuke past three months (16 maps): 9-7 W/L record, 40.6% pistol round win percent, 73.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (16 maps): stavn +33 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | refrezh +33 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | sjuush +21 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | cadiaN +18 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Mirage past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 73.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (6 maps): cadiaN +16 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | stavn +2 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Inferno past three months (9 maps): 8-1 W/L record, 44.4% pistol round win percent, 80.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (9 maps): refrezh +39 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | stavn +14 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | TeSeS +3 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | cadiaN +23 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Nuke past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 79.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (6 maps): NiKo +17 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | huNter- +28 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | JaCkz +4 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | nexa +20 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Mirage past three months (16 maps): 8-8 W/L record, 53.1% pistol round win percent, 77.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (16 maps): NiKo +102 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | huNter- +44 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | nexa +19 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (9 maps): 5-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 73.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (9 maps): NiKo +45 K/D Diff, 1.35 Rating | huNter- +20 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | AmaNEk +2 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-1.
G2 are the second highest rated team in the PGL Major Stockholm playoffs with a 1.17 Rating across the two maps that they played against NiP. They look near unstoppable with the level of play that NiKo has continued to bring to the table, and he is the highest rated player at the event since the start of Legends Stage with a 1.39 Rating across six maps played. When G2 struggled earlier in the year, the excuse was essentially that the ‘lesser’ events during the year were not a priority for them, with the Major being their main focus. Well, they have continued to deliver having won all six of the maps that they have played at the event. On the other side, you have Heroic who are the higher ranked team, yet they are underdogs here. The Danes have firepower across the board with all five members capable of top fragging, though getting past VP was a labored effort in their quarter-final match-up.
Heroic will very likely pick Nuke, a map that they dominated earlier in the year, but their W/L record in the past three months is only 9-7, so they are not as unbeatable as they once looked. Still, they have won five of their last six on Nuke, and they are favorites on that map against most teams. G2 have won four of their last five on Nuke, and they are certainly capable of challenging the Danes on Nuke, but I’d still give Heroic an edge. G2 have won three in a row on Mirage and the map has basically been NiKo’s playground, so I expect them to pick it here, though their three month W/L record does not jump off the page at 8-8. Heroic are not overly impressive on Mirage, and they just lost 4-16 to Entropiq on that map earlier in the event, so G2 should have the edge there. Both of these teams are elite on Inferno, which I expect to be the decider. This could be a close series that goes three maps, but I have G2 winning here simply because they seem to be in better form at the moment, and NiKo appears to be the best rifler in the world at the moment.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
NiKo ($8,800) | nexa ($6,200) | AmaNEk ($6,800) | huNter- ($8,400) | TeSeS ($5,600) | stavn ($8,200) | cadiaN ($6,400)
Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. Gambit (World rank: #4) - 3:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-185) | Gambit (+155)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (+170) | Gambit +1.5 (-205)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Semi-Finals of the Champions Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021. This match will take place at Avicii Arena in front of a live audience.
- NAVI - Rating at event: b1t 1.35 | s1mple 1.34 | electronic 1.29 | Perfecto 1.16 | Boombl4 1.07
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.30 | electronic 1.14 | b1t 1.10 | Perfecto 1.07 | Boombl4 0.97
- Gambit - Rating at event: sh1ro 1.35 | Hobbit 1.20 | nafany 1.20 | Ax1Le 1.13 | interz 0.96
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.33 | Hobbit 1.19 | Ax1Le 1.16 | nafany 1.09 | interz 0.97
H2H Data:
- These rosters have faced several times this year and have traded maps back and forth, but Gambit won the most recent meeting in October at IEM Fall 2-0 (Overpass 16-7 / Mirage 16-11) and sh1ro topped the leaderboards with 45 kills and a 1.55 Rating across two maps.
Map Projections:
NAVI removes Vertigo
Gambit removes Nuke
NAVI picks Mirage
Gambit picks Overpass
NAVI removes Dust2
Gambit removes Inferno
Ancient is left over
NAVI - Key stats on Mirage past three months (9 maps): 7-2 W/L record, 61.1% pistol round win percent, 78.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (9 maps): s1mple +60 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | electronic +12 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Perfecto +9 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Overpass past three months (9 maps): 6-3 W/L record, 55.6% pistol round win percent, 83.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (9 maps): s1mple +61 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | b1t +43 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | electronic +4 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Perfecto +13 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Ancient past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 76.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (5 maps): b1t +16 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | s1mple +16 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | electronic +15 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Boombl4 -5 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | Perfecto +3 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Mirage past three months (7 maps): 5-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 78.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (7 maps): sh1ro +46 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | Ax1Le +24 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Hobbit +7 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | nafany +12 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Overpass past three months (6 maps): 6-0 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 81.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 39.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (6 maps): sh1ro +66 K/D Diff, 1.46 Rating | Ax1Le +26 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | Hobbit +21 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | nafany +10 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | interz +6 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Ancient past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 74.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (4 maps): sh1ro +35 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | Ax1Le +13 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | Hobbit +9 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-1.
The best team in the world is still in elite form as they were the highest rated team in the quarter-finals of the playoffs with a 1.22 Rating across two maps, despite the fact that they had a difficult first match-up against Vitality. Can any of the remaining teams stop NAVI? Probably not if their complementary pieces are going to continue to step up. Perfecto was tied with NiKo as the highest rated player in the quarter-finals with a 1.44 Rating across two maps, which is a tremendous boost for NAVI considering their ‘three-headed monster’ of s1mple, electronic and b1t are all playing to their potential as well. Gambit have not been dominating teams at this event the same way that they did when they were ranked number one in the world earlier in the year, however, they keep finding ways to win, and the ‘nerve factor’ of being on stage in front of a crowd should continue to diminish as they get more and more experience in their Major run. I do really like the fact that Groove is back as the head coach for Gambit, as he was a component of their rise to number one in the world, and the team also confirmed that he will remain coach going forward.
Both of these teams permaban the other team’s favorite map, so we won’t see Nuke or Vertigo. Both teams have solid map pools across the board, so it’s tough to ‘punish pick’ either of these teams. I think that NAVI will pick Mirage here as they did last time against Gambit, though Gambit did beat them on that occasion. Still, the map is tied with Overpass for NAVI’s most played map in the past three months, and they had won six in a row prior to their to Gambit. This is the playoffs and teams may look to catch their opponent off guard with their map pick, like when Vitality picked Dust2 against NAVI on Friday, so maybe NAVI go for something like Ancient, but I think they would rather rely on a map that they are more comfortable on. Gambit will likely pick Overpass where they have won nine in a row, and if Gambit have an edge over NAVI on any map, then it would be Overpass since Vertigo will be removed. I think that this will be quite the test for NAVI, and Gambit are very capable of at least winning their own map pick. I have NAVI winning this in three maps, and I do expect a tight series.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
s1mple ($9,000) | b1t ($7,400) | Perfecto ($6,200) | electronic ($8,000) | sh1ro ($7,800) | Ax1Le ($6,600) | Hobbit ($7,000)