Fnatic (World rank: #32) vs. MAD Lions (World rank: #21) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Fnatic (-230) | MAD Lions (+185)
Map Handicap: Fnatic -1.5 (+145) | MAD Lions +1.5 (-180)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the semi-finals of DreamHack Open November 2021.
- Fnatic - Rating at event: Brollan 1.55 | mezii 1.42 | smooya 1.31 | ALEX 1.12 | KRIMZ 1.07
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: smooya 1.33 | mezii 1.12 | Brollan 1.09 | KRIMZ 1.01 | ALEX 0.99
- MAD Lions - Rating at event: jL 1.15 | Woro2k 1.10 | TMB 1.07 | b0RUP 0.97 | sausol 0.93
- MAD Lions - Rating past three months: Woro2k 1.19 | jL 1.10 | TMB 1.07 | b0RUP 1.03 | sausol 1.03
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Fnatic removes Dust2
MAD Lions removes Vertigo
Fnatic picks Inferno
MAD Lions picks Ancient
Fnatic removes Mirage
MAD Lions removes Overpass
Nuke is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Fnatic wins 2-1.
This new lineup for Fnatic with smooya in the mix has basically been unstoppable. They have won 16 of their 19 maps played, and they have beaten some solid opponents, including their recent victory over ENCE. They are the highest rated team at this event so far with a 1.29 Rating across four maps played, well ahead of BIG in second place with 1.12 Rating across five maps played. The three highest rated players at Dreamhack Open November 2021 are Brollan, mezii and smooya, so there has been plenty of firepower across the board. On the other side are MAD Lions, who have performed above expectations as the fourth highest rated team at the event with a 1.04 Rating across seven maps played. MAD Lions have beaten MOUZ in two best-of-threes at DreamHack Open November 2021, though chrisJ was filling in for Bymas in the first meeting between those teams.
I expect Fnatic to continue their dominance in this series, but we haven’t seen their lineup play on Dust2/Ancient yet, which are two of MAD Lions strongest maps, having won 8 out of 12 on Dust2 and 9 out of 12 on Ancient in the past three months. Thus, I think it is fair to expect MAD Lions to win their own map pick, since it should be one of those two maps. The other five maps have been excellent for Fnatic, and I have them winning this series 2-1, though I am not completely ruling out the possibility of Fnatic winning 2-0 based on the great form that they have continue to show.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
mezii ($8,600) | Brollan ($7,800) | smooya ($9,800) | KRIMZ ($6,800) | Woro2k ($7,200) | ALEX ($5,600)
Favorite Fanduel Plays (In order of priority):
mezii ($11,200) | smooya ($10,900) | Brollan ($11,500) | KRIMZ ($9,600) | Woro2k ($9,500) | ALEX ($10,500)
BIG (World rank: #16) vs. forZe (World rank: #29) - 1:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: BIG (-220) | forZe (+175)
Map Handicap: BIG -1.5 (+130) | forZe +1.5 (-165)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series for the semi-finals of DreamHack Open November 2021.
- BIG - Rating at event: tabseN 1.24 | gade 1.22 | syrsoN 1.13 | k1to 1.07 | tiziaN 0.96
- BIG - Rating past three months: tabseN 1.11 | syrsoN 1.06 | gade 0.98 | k1to 0.94 | tiziaN 0.93
- forZe - Rating at event: zorte 1.16 | KENSI 1.13 | Jerry 1.10 | shalfey 1.07 | Norwi 1.01
- forZe - Rating past three months: zorte 1.15 | KENSI 1.10 | shalfey 1.10 | Norwi 1.10 | Jerry 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. Both teams have made changes to their lineups since the teams last met in June 2021 at ESEA Premier S37 Europe, so that result seems irrelevant here.
Map Projections:
BIG removes Ancient
forZe removes Vertigo
BIG picks Dust2
forZe picks Mirage
BIG removes Inferno
forZe removes Overpass
Nuke is left over
Prediction/Narrative: forZe wins 2-1.
This forZe roster has made a few changes in the past month after FL1T, almazer and the coach, liTTle, all left the team after they failed to qualify for PGL Major Stockholm. One day later, forZe announced that they acquired Norwi and coach Fierce from Singularity, with shalfey later becoming the fifth member of the team. They have won 11 out of 20 maps played with their new lineup, and they have already beaten solid opponents such as ENCE & SKADE. ForZe are currently the third highest rated team at DreamHack Open November 2021 with a 1.09 Rating across seven maps played, while BIG is second highest with a 1.12 Rating across five maps played. BIG are coming off of a disappointing showing at PGL Major Stockholm, and the Germans have yet to establish consistent results since bringing gade into the lineup.
I think that this could be a very tight series, and I lean towards the underdogs based on the projected maps. Sure, BIG will be able to pick Dust2, which has historically been their best map, and they have now won five in a row on that map which gives them a 9-3 W/L record in the past three months. However, the only other map that BIG have a win rate over 50% on in the past three months is Vertigo, which is forZe’s permaban, so the rest of the map pool could be in question. I expect forZe to pick Mirage, which has historically been their best map, and they have looked good with their new lineup on that map with a 4-2 W/L record, including a 26-28 loss to GamerLegion. Their 5v4 conversion rate on Mirage has been very impressive at 80.0% during that time, and I think forZe can certainly beat the Germans on that map, though BIG have had some success on Mirage. The decider map could end up as Nuke, which has been another good map for forZe with a 3-2 W/L record, including a 16-0 spanking against Spirit. BIG have lost three in a row on Nuke, and I think the upset potential is certainly there. Either way, this could be a close series, so I would rather take the favorable odds/pricing on forZe in this spot.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
zorte ($7,400) | KENSI ($6,200) | Norwi ($5,200) | syrsoN ($8,200) | shalfey ($7,000) | Jerry ($4,600)
Favorite Fanduel Plays (In order of priority):
zorte ($11,000) | Norwi ($9,200) | KENSI ($10,600) | syrsoN ($11,800) | shalfey ($9,700) | Jerry ($10,200)