Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #2) vs. Gambit (World rank: #4) - 9:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NiP (+115) | Gambit (-140)
Map Handicap: NiP +1.5 (-250) | Gambit -1.5 (+200)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Legends Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 4 (teams with a 2-1 record). The winning team advances to the Champions stage.
- NiP - stats at event: hampus 1.30 | device 1.20 | Plopski 0.98 | LNZ 0.83 | REZ 0.80
- NiP - stats past three months: device 1.18 hampus 1.12 | REZ 1.10 | Plopski 1.01 | LNZ 0.91
- Gambit - stats at event: Hobbit 1.31 | sh1ro 1.24 | nafany 1.16 | Ax1Le 1.04 | interz 0.92
- Gambit - stats past three months: sh1ro 1.32 | Hobbit 1.20 | Ax1Le 1.15 | nafany 1.07 | interz 0.97
H2H Data:
These rosters last faced each other in September at ESL Pro League S14 when NiP swept 2-0 (16-12 Ancient / 16-6 Inferno). REZ led the way with 44 kills and a 1.25 Rating across two maps.
Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 2-1.
NiP may have won the previous match-up between these two teams, but Gambit actually came out on top prior to that at IEM Cologne, which took place on LAN. Gambit have been excellent at the Legends stage as the fifth highest rated team with a 1.14 Rating across three maps played, though NiP clearly had the toughest match-up of all having to face NAVI in a best-of-three. Gambit have a very strong map pool, but NiP could have an edge on Inferno & Ancient, so those are the only two maps that I would be concerned with for Gambit. NiP may benefit from the fact that this event is taking place in Stockholm and the fact that it is on LAN, but I don’t think that Gambit are just ‘onliners’, plus we already saw Gambit beat NiP on LAN earlier in the year. I have Gambit winning here in a close series.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Ax1Le ($6,800) | sh1ro ($8,800) | Hobbit ($8,000) | nafany ($6,000) | REZ ($6,600) | device ($8,400)
Astralis (World rank: #8) vs. Vitality (World rank: #3) - 9:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (+165) | Vitality (-205)
Map Handicap: Astralis +1.5 (-175) | Vitality -1.5 (+145)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Legends Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 4 (teams with a 1-2 record). The losing team is eliminated.
- Astralis - stats at event: dupreeh 1.01 | Lucky 0.81 | Xyp9x 0.79 | Magisk 0.74 | gla1ve 0.66
- Astralis - stats past three months: Magisk 1.07 | dupreeh 1.06 | Lucky 0.98 | Xyp9x 0.95 | gla1ve 0.94
- Vitality - stats at event: ZywOo 1.13 | apEX 1.12 | shox 1.02 | misutaaa 0.96 | Kyojin 0.92
- Vitality - stats past three months: ZywOo 1.28 | misutaaa 1.06 | apEX 1.04 | shox 1.04 | Kyojin 0.95
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other since Astralis recently changed their lineup. Vitality swept 2-0 (16-6 Nuke / 16-5 Vertigo) when the teams met in October at IEM Fall 2021 Europe, though Bubzkji was playing for Astralis instead of gla1ve. ZywOo topped the leaderboards with 43 kills and 1.65 Rating across two maps played.
Prediction/Narrative: Vitality wins 2-0.
Astralis have done a great job of battling back after a poor showing on the opening day of this event, but I don’t have much confidence in them at the moment, especially after their humiliating 1-16 loss to NiP on Inferno. On the other side, the French did not to much to build confidence after dropping a map to Evil Geniuses on Sunday in a series that was way closer than it should have been. Vitality re-established themselves as an elite team in recent months, and I expect them to return to the good form that they previously showed with this roster. Ultimately, I can’t think of a single map that Astralis would have an edge on against Vitality. The Danes have a higher win rate in recent months on two maps: Ancient & Inferno. However, Ancient is the permaban for Vitality, meanwhile Astralis just got destroyed on Inferno by NiP. Nuke would be the one other map that could get interesting since both teams are strong on it and Nuke has always been a ‘home map’ for Astralis, but I still think Vitality should win this series fairly easily, likely in a 2-0 fashion.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
ZywOo ($9,600) | apEX ($6,600) | misutaaa ($8,600) | shox ($7,600)
Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. Copenhagen Flames (World rank: #14) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-150) | Copenhagen Flames (+125)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+195) | Copenhagen Flames +1.5 (-245)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Legends Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 4 (teams with a 2-1 record). The winning team advances to the Champions stage.
- Heroic - stats at event: stavn 1.41 | refrezh 1.19 | cadiaN 1.13 | sjuush 1.13 | TeSeS 1.01
- Heroic - stats past three months: stavn 1.15 | refrezh 1.13 | cadiaN 1.09 | TeSeS 1.05 | sjuush 1.04
- Copenhagen Flames - stats at event: roeJ 1.38 | nicoodoz 1.29 | jabbi 1.25 | Zyphon 1.17 | Hooxi 1.10
- Copenhagen Flames - stats past three months: roeJ 1.18 | nicoodoz 1.13 | jabbi 1.10 | Zyphon 1.06 | HooXi 0.91
H2H Data:
These rosters faced each other in the Challengers Stage of this event and Copenhagen Flames won 2-1 (16-7 Vertigo / 11-16 Nuke / 16-12 Overpass). RoeJ led his team with 58 kills and a 1.17 Rating, but stavn was at the top of the server with 66 kills and a 1.24 Rating across three maps despite his team losing.
Prediction/Narrative: Copenhagen wins 2-1.
Maybe we need to show some more respect to the Copenhagen Flames considering they just beat Heroic in a best-of-three, yet they are underdogs on Monday’s slate. Beyond that, they are the second highest rated team at the Legends Stage with a 1.24 Rating across three maps played, which puts them only behind NAVI. They struggled on the CT side of Ancient against G2, but only dropped a combined eight rounds against Evil Geniuses & FaZe in the following best-of-ones. With that being said, the Danes on the other side of the server are also playing well as the fourth highest rated team at the Legends Stage with a 1.17 Rating across three maps played. Heroic weren’t able to get past NAVI in a best-of-one, but they were the better team against both Vitality & Astralis. Copenhagen Flames won their own map pick more convincingly than Heroic did when these teams last faced, but both teams have solid map pools overall. I have this match as a pick ‘em, which means that I am leaning towards Copenhagen Flames as the underdog and the cheaper team on Draftkings. This should be another tight series between the top two teams from Denmark at the moment (sorry Astralis).
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
nicoodoz ($7,200) | roeJ ($7,800) | jabbi ($6,400) | stavn ($9,000) | cadiaN ($7,000) | TeSeS ($6,200) | Zyphon ($5,600)
Virtus.pro (World rank: #12) vs. MOUZ (World rank: #16) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Virtus.pro (-155) | MOUZ (+125)
Map Handicap: Virtus.pro -1.5 (+180) | MOUZ +1.5 (-220)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-35)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Legends Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 4 (teams with a 1-2 record). The losing team is eliminated.
- Virtus.pro - stats at event: Qikert 1.05 | YEKINDAR 0.93 | FL1T 0.86 | Jame 0.84 | buster 0.79
- Virtus.pro - stats past three months: YEKINDAR 1.18 | Jame 1.16 | FL1T 1.11 | Qikert 1.03 | buster 1.01
- MOUZ - stats at event: frozen 1.36 | ropz 1.24 | Bymas 1.11 | acoR 0.98 | dexter 0.92
- MOUZ - stats past three months: frozen 1.19 | ropz 1.18 | Bymas 1.11 | acoR 1.01 | dexter 0.97
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in January, but both lineups have made changes since.
Prediction/Narrative: MOUZ wins 2-1.
Are we sure that VP should be favorites here? Sure, they’ve looked decent with a close win over Vitality and a close loss to Gambit, and we didn’t expect them to beat NAVI, so their other loss was justified. Still, this is a team that just changed their roster days before the event started. Plus, the map pool seems to favor MOUZ. VP’s most played map with their new roster is Inferno, and they are 3-0 on that map so far, but that is one of MOUZ’s strongest maps and could go either way. Beyond that, I’m not sold on the rest of VP’s map pool. With FL1T in the lineup, VP have only record wins on Inferno, Overpass & Vertigo. We can expect to see MOUZ remove Overpass, and then MOUZ have their highest win rate in the past three months on Vertigo having won five of their last six. I don’t think either of these two teams are good enough to go on a playoff run, but I do give MOUZ an edge in this series, and I don’t agree with them being an underdog here. This could still be a competitive match-up, but I couldn’t possibly back VP at these odds, especially on Draftkings where the pricing on MOUZ is hard to ignore.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
ropz ($7,000) | frozen ($7,600) | Bymas ($6,200) | Jame ($8,200) | Dexter ($5,000) | FL1T ($7,200) | YEKINDAR ($9,200)