Complexity (World rank: #27) vs. AGO (World rank: #137) - 6:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-385) | AGO (+295)

Map Handicap: Complexity -1.5 (-110) | AGO +1.5 (-115)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-170)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
  • Complexity - Rating at event: FaNg 1.13 | floppy 1.08 | junior 0.99 | Grim 0.80 | JT 0.51
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: floppy 1.10 | junior 1.08 | FaNg 1.05 | Grim 1.02 | JT 0.88
  • AGO - Rating at event: ultimate 1.00 | leman 0.91 | F1KU 0.91 | Furlan 0.83 | mwlky 0.57
  • AGO - Rating past three months: ultimate 1.02 | mwlky 1.00 | F1KU 0.99 | leman 0.93 | Furlan 0.92  

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

AGO removes Overpass

Complexity removes Mirage

AGO picks Inferno

Complexity picks Ancient

AGO removes Vertigo

Complexity removes Nuke

Dust2 is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Complexity wins 2-0.

Neither of these teams managed to win a map on Wednesday, but both teams still showed signs of promise. For AGO, they managed to take NAVI to a seventh overtime on Mirage before NAVI finally got the win. NAVI were massive favorites at (-2060) moneyline odds and the series seemed unlosable for them, especially after they won 16-1 on Dust2. AGO put up a good fight, but ultimately, I think that NAVI just weren’t respecting AGO enough, and they were playing scrappy without their in-game leader, Boombl4, who is out with COVID. AGO is still the lowest-ranked team at the event, and their current lineup has limited experience as a unit. As for Complexity, they got off to a strong start on their map pick of Ancient with seven rounds on the T side, but they couldn’t establish their CT economy and Heroic ran away with the map. On Overpass, they had a 14-13 lead, but they couldn’t close it out after a questionable post-plant in round 29. Still, they looked competent against Heroic, and they easily could have won at least a map. AGO have a bit of hype surrounding them right now after their historical overtime loss against the best team in the world, but I still think they are severely outmatched against a Complexity roster that also had a good showing in a loss, just without all of the hype. This is the first international LAN event that FaNg and junior have played in, and both of them looked solid on day one. Complexity should ban Mirage right off the bat, which means that they should be heavy favorites on any map that ends up being played. I'm expecting a sweep for the North Americans.

  • On Inferno, floppy leads CoL with a 1.16 Rating, while junior leads with a 1.25 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022.
  • On Ancient, floppy leads CoL with a 1.29 Rating, while FaNg leads with a 1.38 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022.
  • On Dust2, floppy leads CoL with a 1.13 Rating and 1.14 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

floppy ($9,600) | FaNg ($6,600) | junior ($8,600) | JT ($5,400) | Grim ($7,600) | ultimate ($7,000)

 

Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. Astralis (World rank: #11) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-185) | Astralis (+150)

Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+160) | Astralis +1.5 (-200)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
  • Heroic - Rating at event: cadiaN 1.48 | stavn  1.26 | refrezh 1.18 | TeSeS 1.07 | sjuush 0.91
  • Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.27 | cadiaN 1.14 | TeSeS 1.09 | sjuush 1.08 | refrezh  1.00
  • Astralis - Rating at event: k0nfig 1.64 | gla1ve  1.29 | blameF 1.18 | Farlig 1.09 | Xyp9x 1.01
  • Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.15 | Farlig 1.09 | k0nfig 1.07 | gla1ve 0.95 | Xyp9x 0.92

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in November at BLAST Premier Fall Final 2021 when Lucky was on Astralis instead of Farlig, and Astralis won 2-0 (19-15 Mirage / 16-4 Nuke). K0nfig led the server with 56 kills, while gla1ve led with a 1.41 Rating across two maps played.

Map Projections:

Astralis removes Mirage

Heroic removes Dust2

Astralis picks Ancient

Heroic picks Overpass

Astralis removes Inferno

Heroic removes Vertigo

Nuke is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1.

This is a Danish derby, and anything can happen when there are 10 Danes on the server. I tend to lean towards the underdog when two teams from the same region face each other. Astralis are the highest-rated team at the event through the first day of group D with a 1.24 Team Rating across two maps played and K0nfig leads all players with a 1.64 Rating as he looks to continue his good form from IEM Katowice 2022. Heroic also performed well on Wednesday, and they are currently the third highest-rated team at the event with a 1.18 Team Rating across two maps played. Both IGLs are looking good as cadiaN is the third highest-rated player at the event with a 1.48 Rating while gla1ve is sixth highest-rated with a 1.29 Rating. Astralis swept this match-up last time, including a dominant 16-4 win on Heroic’s map pick, Nuke. They were playing with Lucky at that time, and Lucky did play well in that series, but this new-look Astralis with Farlig seems to have even more potential. It is still early days for this Astralis lineup so I don’t want to set my expectations too high, but I think this match-up is much closer to a coinflip than the odds reflect. The Draftkings pricing provides some interesting options on both sides, but I’d rather ride with the cheaper Astralis lineup in a potential upset spot against their Danish rivals, especially on LAN. 

  • On Ancient, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.30 Rating and 1.43 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022.
  • On Overpass, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.23 Rating and 1.23 K/D ratio across eight maps played in 2022.
  • On Nuke, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.11 Rating and 1.08 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

blameF ($8,200) | k0nfig ($7,400) | Farlig ($5,600) | Gla1ve ($6,600) | TeSeS ($6,400) | Xyp9x ($4,600) | refrezh ($5,200)

 

Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #48) - 1:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-500) | Evil Geniuses (+375)

Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (-140) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (+115)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+165) | Under 2.5 (-200)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
  • NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.49 | b1t 1.41 | electronic 1.19 | Perfecto 1.09 | headtr1ck 0.91
  • NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.30 | headtr1ck 1.23 (mainly with NAVI Junior) | b1t 1.12 | electronic  1.04 | Perfecto 1.02 
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: Brehze 1.23 | CeRq  0.84 | RUSH 0.78 | Stewie2K 0.67 | autimatic 0.66
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: autimatic 1.11 | RUSH 1.02 | Brehze 1.00 | Stewie2K 0.99 | CeRq 0.95

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

Evil Geniuses removes Ancient

NAVI removes Vertigo

Evil Geniuses picks Inferno

NAVI picks Dust2

Evil Geniuses removes Nuke

NAVI removes Overpass

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-1.

Headtr1ck played fine as a stand-in for NAVI on Wednesday, but it is clear that NAVI play differently without their IGL, Boombl4. The style of play that we saw from NAVI against AGO was scrappy, puggy, and perhaps even a bit disrespectful. Sure, NAVI are still the second highest-rated team at the event with a 1.22 Team Rating, but they certainly did not expect to find themselves in a seventh overtime on Mirage after winning 16-1 on Dust2. Thus, if Evil Geniuses were ever going to beat NAVI, it would be right now. EG were unable to win a map against Astralis, but I do think that speaks more to the strength of the Danes at the moment. Evil Geniuses have an experienced roster, and this match means a hell of a lot more to them than it does NAVI as EG look to find any shred of success. Brehze played well on Wednesday, but the other individuals on EG need to pick it up if they want to have any chance against NAVI, particularly autimatic. I’m giving EG credit to win a map here because I do think that NAVI are vulnerable with a stand-in, and I think Evil Geniuses still have more to show. NAVI will probably look to play puggy maps like Dust2 or Mirage since they are without their IGL, but those maps are certainly winnable for Evil Geniuses. NAVI is the focus here, but I do think that some of the value on EG is worth taking a look at.

  • On Inferno, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.25 Rating and 1.47 K/D ratio across one map played in 2022.
  • On Dust2, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.41 Rating and 1.60 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022.
  • On Mirage, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.35 Rating and 1.50 K/D ratio across eight maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

 s1mple ($10,000) | electronic ($6,800) | b1t ($7,800) | Perfecto ($6,000) | Brehze ($4,000) | autimatic ($7,000) | CeRq ($4,800)

 

*Top Stacks: Complexity, NAVI, Astralis

*Favorite captain options: s1mple, blameF, floppy, b1t, junior

*Favorite value plays: FaNg, electronic, k0nfig, Perfecto, Farlig, Brehze, JT, Grim, autimatic