BIG (World rank: #17) vs. Movistar Riders (World rank: #23) - 7:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: BIG (-115) | Movistar Riders (-110)

Map Handicap: BIG -1.5 (+245) | Movistar Riders +1.5 (-310)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group C
  • BIG - Rating at event: tabseN 1.27 | syrsoN 1.12 | Krimbo 0.95 | faveN 0.91 | tiziaN 0.80
  • BIG - Rating past three months: syrsoN 1.20 | Krimbo 1.13 | tabseN 1.12 | faveN 1.03 | tiziaN 0.95
  • Movistar Riders - Rating at event: alex 1.16 | SunPayus 1.16 | mopoz  1.12 | dav1g 1.04 | DeathZz 0.97
  • Movistar Riders - Rating past three months: SunPayus 1.16 | alex 1.09 | mopoz 1.00 | DeathZz 0.96 | dav1g 0.93

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams played in a best-of-one at the IEM Katowice 2022 Play-In event and BIG won 16-13 on Nuke, though k1to was still in the BIG lineup instead of Krimbo. TabseN topped the leaderboards with 24 kills and a 1.39 Rating.

Map Projections:

Movistar Riders removes Dust2

BIG removes Inferno

Movistar Riders picks Ancient

BIG picks Vertigo

Movistar Riders removes Overpass

BIG removes Mirage

Nuke is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Movistar Riders win 2-1.

Movistar Riders are in sole possession of first place in Group C with the only flawless 3-0 W/L record in the group. They’ve won six series in a row, and they’ve taken down Players, Liquid, and GODSENT at this event. This is an important spot for BIG, as the Germans have a 1-2 W/L record through three days, but they are running into the hottest team in the group. The map pool also leans in the favor of Movistar Riders, since they can immediately ban BIG’s favorite map, Dust2. Movistar Riders have played well on Nuke & Ancient at this event, and they have been solid on Vertigo in the past, so the map pool could end up with three maps that are winnable for the Spaniards. BIG won when these teams last met, but it was a competitive match, and Movistar Riders are in better form at the moment, so I think Movistar can win here in a tight series. BIG will not go down easy since they desperately need the win, but I think Movistar Riders will continue their hot streak as they look to top Group C.

  • On Ancient, mopoz leads Movistar Riders with a 1.17 Rating, while SunPayus leads with a 1.25 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.
  • On Vertigo, SunPayus leads Movistar Riders with a 1.17 Rating and 1.23 K/D ratio across two maps played in 2022.
  • On Nuke, SunPayus leads Movistar Riders with a 1.27 Rating and 1.45 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):

mopoz ($6,400) | SunPayus ($8,200) | DeathZz ($4,600) | tabseN ($7,600) | alex ($7,400) | Krimbo ($8,000) | faveN ($6,200) | syrsoN ($8,800)

 

Liquid (World rank: #31) vs. Party Astronauts (World rank: #40) - 11:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Liquid (-1200) | Party Astronauts (+770)

Map Handicap: Liquid -1.5 (-255) | Party Astronauts +1.5 (+205)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+245) | Under 2.5 (-310)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group C
  • Liquid - Rating at event: oSee 1.30 | EliGE 1.21 | NAF 1.13 | shox 0.98 | nitr0 0.97
  • Liquid - Rating past three months: EliGE 1.18 | NAF 1.14 | oSee  1.12 | shox 0.96 | nitr0 0.96
  • Party Astronauts - Rating at event: Jonji 0.94 | djay 0.88 | ben1337  0.68 | PwnAlone 0.67 | ptr 0.62
  • Party Astronauts - Rating past three months: PwnAlone 1.21 | Jonji 1.16 | djay 1.14 | ben1337 1.01 | ptr 0.90

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. 

Map Projections:

Party Astronauts removes Vertigo

Liquid remove Nuke

Party Astronauts picks Inferno 

Liquid picks Mirage

Party Astronauts removes Ancient

Liquid removes Overpass

Dust2 is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Liquid wins 2-0.

Liquid may have lost to Movistar Riders as favorites, but I think it had more to do with the strong play of Movistar Riders rather than a poor performance from Liquid. Through seven maps played, Liquid are still the second highest-rated team at the event with a 1.12 Team Rating. OSee has also really come into form as the second highest-rated player at the event so far. Liquid are massive favorites in this spot at (-1200) moneyline odds, and Party Astronauts have not won a single map through three days of Group C. This should be a quick sweep for Liquid regardless of the maps that are played. Liquid are the biggest favorites on the slate, and I see no reason to fade them here.

  • On Inferno, NAF leads Liquid with a 1.23 Rating, while oSee leads with a 1.20 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.
  • On Mirage, NAF leads Liquid with 1.12 Rating and 1.12 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022.
  • On Dust2, oSee leads Liquid with a 1.60 Rating and 2.14 K/D ratio across two maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):

NAF ($9,200) | oSee ($8,400) | shox ($6,000) | EliGE ($10,200) | nitr0 ($7,800) | djay ($5,000)

 

Players (World rank: #4) vs. GODSENT (World rank: #28) - 2:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Players (-790) | GODSENT (+545)

Map Handicap: Players -1.5 (-190) | GODSENT +1.5 (+155)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+200) | Under 2.5 (-250)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group C
  • Players - Rating at event: sh1ro 1.37 | HObbit 1.27 | Ax1Le 1.20 | interz 1.11 | nafany 0.90
  • Players - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.35 | Ax1Le 1.23 | HObbit  1.15 | interz 1.04 | nafany 0.93
  • GODSENT - Rating at event: latto 1.01 | dumau 0.99 | b4rtiN 0.93 | HEN1 0.88 | TACO 0.84
  • GODSENT - Rating past three months: dumau 1.08 | latto 1.03 | HEN1  0.97 | b4rtiN 0.92 | TACO 0.89

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams played in February 2021 at Snow Sweet Snow 1 back when felps was still on GODSENT instead of HEN1, and Gambit won 2-0 (16-9 Inferno / 16-9 Vertigo). Ax1Le led the server with 39 kills and a 1.40 Rating. 

Map Projections:

GODSENT removes Dust2

Players removes Nuke

GODSENT picks Ancient

Players picks Vertigo

GODSENT removes Mirage

Players removes Inferno

Overpass is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Players win 2-0.

Players got back on track with a hard-fought win over BIG on Friday, and they are currently the highest-rated team at the event with a 1.17 Team Rating through seven maps played. Sh1ro is in MVP-form, leading the event with a 1.37 Rating, and it seems like Players’ loss against Movistar Riders was due to the fact that the Spaniards are hot rather than Players being out of sorts. Players are capable of winning in a studio-LAN environment, and they are huge favorites in this spot at (-790) moneyline odds. We finally got to see GODSENT pick up a win with HEN1 in the lineup, but the Brazilians only beat Party Astronauts, who haven’t won a single map at the event. Ancient has been the go-to map for GODSENT, but Players have already won on that map twice at ESL Pro League Season 15, and Players have a 5-2 W/L record with a 78.9% 5v4 conversion rate and 31.8% 4v5 conversion rate, so Ancient is not exactly a sure-fire pick for GODSENT. The Brazilians have a fairly deep map pool, but Players’ map pool is still much stronger, and this should be a fairly easy 2-0 sweep for the CIS team.

  • On Ancient, sh1ro leads Players with a 1.52 Rating and 2.02 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022.
  • On Vertigo, Ax1Le leads Players with a 1.32 Rating, while sh1ro leads with a 1.58 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.
  • On Overpass, Ax1Le leads Players with a 1.44 Rating and 1.50 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):

Ax1Le ($9,000) | sh1ro ($10,000) | nafany ($6,400) | HObbit ($8,600) | interz ($7,200) | dumau ($7,000)

 

*Top Stacks: Liquid, Players, Movistar Riders

*Favorite captain options: NAF, Ax1Le, oSee, SunPayus, sh1ro, HObbit, EliGE

*Favorite value plays: shox, mopoz, nafany, interz, DeathZz, tabseN, alex