Vitality (World rank: #8) vs. Sprout (World rank: #30) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-750) | Sprout (+525)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (-175) | Sprout +1.5 (+145)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+185) | Under 2.5 (-235)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group B
- Vitality - Rating at event: N/A
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.28 | dupreeh 1.17 | apEX 1.04 | Magisk 1.03 | misutaaa 0.98
- Sprout - Rating at event: N/A
- Sprout - Rating past three months: -slaxz 1.18 | Spiidi 1.06 | Marix 1.01 | Staehr 0.97 | raalz 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in a best-of-one in September at IEM Fall 2021, but both have had roster changes since. Vitality won 16-14 on Vertigo with ZywOo topping the leaderboards (30 Kills, 1.67 Rating).
Map Projections:
Sprout removes Nuke
Vitality removes Ancient
Sprout picks Dust2
Vitality picks Inferno
Sprout removes Overpass
Vitality removes Mirage
Vertigo is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Vitality wins 2-0
The oddsmakers have this match-up as the most one-sided on the slate with Vitality as a huge favorite. Vitality have had mixed results with their new roster with an 8-7 W/L record so far, though they faced much more difficult opponents than Sprout. When they faced a team similar in ranking to Sprout like MIBR (currently #35 in the HLTV world rankings), the French swept with ease, taking their own map pick of Inferno with a 16-5 result. Sprout’s current lineup has been solid with a 30-22 W/L record across 52 maps played, but they have gotten smoked by teams in the top 20 with a 2-9 W/L record across 11 maps played. Sprout have not really been able to stay competitive with top teams, and they have had some ugly results like a 1-16 loss on Ancient against K23 back in January, so I don’t see how they could possibly beat Vitality. Sprout’s best chance of taking a map would probably be on Dust2, where they have a 3-1 W/L record in the past month. Vitality are simply the much better team, so this series will likely be a sweep for the French.
- Magisk has attempted the most opening duels (21.8%) on Vitality across 15 maps played with this lineup. Dupreeh has had the most success in opening duels (60.4%) during that time. Perhaps a soft match-up against Sprout could be the perfect spot for either one of them to rack up entry kills.
- On Dust2, ZywOo leads Vitality with a 1.32 Rating and 1.69 K/D ratio across two maps played in 2022.
- On Inferno, ZywOo leads Vitality with a 1.32 Rating and 1.69 K/D ratio across two maps played in 2022.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
ZywOo ($9,800) | magisk ($7,400) | dupreeh ($9,000) | apEX ($8,400) | misutaaa ($6,000)
FaZe (World rank: #3) vs. ENCE (World rank: #15) - 11:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-340) | ENCE (+265)
Map Handicap: FaZe -1.5 (+105) | ENCE +1.5 (-125)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group B
- FaZe - Rating at event: N/A
- FaZe - Rating past three months: broky 1.23 | ropz 1.18 | Twistzz 1.11 | rain 1.06 | karrigan 0.90
- ENCE - Rating at event: N/A
- ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.20 | hades 1.13 | dycha 1.12 | Maden 0.97 | Snappi 0.94
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in a best-of-one in October at PGL Major Stockholm 2021, but that was prior to FaZe adding ropz for olofmeister and ENCE adding Maden for doto in their lineup. FaZe won 16-12 on Dust2 and karrigan led the way with 28 kills and a 1.55 Rating.
Map Projections:
ENCE removes Inferno
FaZe removes Vertigo
ENCE picks Mirage
FaZe picks Dust2
ENCE removes Ancient
FaZe removes Nuke
Overpass is left over
Prediction/Narrative: ENCE wins 2-1
Time to sell high on FaZe? After winning IEM Katowice 2022, FaZe have now reached a top three world ranking for the first time since June 2020. Their tournament run featured jks in the lineup, so it will be interesting to see how FaZe performs with their full roster again. These teams had a tight best-of-one when they last faced that went 28 rounds and FaZe won with karrigan having an all-time showing, leading the server with 28 kills and a 1.55 Rating. His next highest teammate was Twistzz with 19 kills and a 1.09 Rating. I certainly do not expect karrigan to replicate that performance as the lowest-rated member of FaZe, so perhaps ENCE have a better chance this time. I think these teams are not far off from being evenly matched, so the (-340) moneyline odds for FaZe seem way too steep to me. ENCE have a 12-11 W/L record with their current lineup and just earlier this month they swept Entropiq (currently #9 world-ranked) and only dropped nine rounds across two maps (16-4 Overpass / 16-5 Mirage). Their map pool is limited as their lineup has never played Vertigo or Dust2 together, but they have a win rate of at least 50% on Overpass, Mirage, and Nuke, and it is possible that two of those maps make their way into the map pool. FaZe are still a better team and should be favored here, but the upset possibility is definitely there for ENCE, and the odds/Draftkings pricing makes them a very attractive underdog option here.
- Maden has attempted the most opening duels (23.5%) on ENCE across 23 maps played with this lineup. Hades has had the most success in opening duels (65.5%) during that time. Both players have a high ceiling at cheap pricing on Draftkings at $4,800 and $6,800, respectively.
- On Mirage, dycha leads ENCE with a 1.28 Rating, while Spinx leads with a 1.35 K/D ratio across eight maps played in 2022.
- On Dust2, broky leads FaZe with a 1.30 Rating and 1.53 K/D ratio across two maps played in 2022.
- On Overpass, hades leads ENCE with a 1.20 Rating and 1.23 K/D ratio across six maps played in 2022.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
hades ($6,800) | Maden ($4,800) | Spinx ($7,600) | broky ($9,400) | dycha ($5,800) | ropz ($8,800)
Outsiders/Virtus.pro (World rank: #6) vs. FURIA (World rank: #14) - 2:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Outsiders (-230) | FURIA (+185)
Map Handicap: Outsiders -1.5 (+135) | FURIA +1.5 (-165)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group B
- Outsiders - Rating at event: N/A
- Outsiders - Rating past three months: YEKINDAR 1.24 | Jame 1.19 | FL1T 1.17 | buster 1.05 | Qikert 1.04
- FURIA - Rating at event: N/A
- FURIA - Rating past three months: saffee 1.14 | KCSERATO 1.13 | arT 0.96 | yuurih 0.92 | drop 0.87
H2H Data:
- These rosters last met in the grand final of ESL Challenger February 2022 and Outsiders/VP won 2-0 (16-5 Inferno / 16-7 Overpass). YEKINDAR was the highest-rated player on the server (1.51) while Qikert led in kills (40) across two maps played.
Map Projections:
FURIA removes Dust2
Outsiders removes Nuke
FURIA picks Inferno
Outsiders picks Overpass
FURIA removes Vertigo
Outsiders removes Mirage
Ancient is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Outsiders win 2-0
Virtus.pro are playing at this event under the name Outsiders because ESL banned organizations with ‘ties to the Russian government’, though VP disputed that. VP completely outclassed FURIA when they last met, only dropping 12 rounds across two maps played. Nobody on the Brazilian side managed more than 23 kills across two rounds, though FURIA had only played a few series with saffee in the lineup at that point. FURIA has not found much success yet with a 7-9 W/L record across 16 maps played, and their only ‘significant’ win came against Astralis, who just changed their roster due to a lack of success. VP have been on a roll in 2022 with a 10-5 W/L record across 15 maps played, and they are undefeated on Dust2, Inferno, and Overpass. FURIA will likely have a better showing than the last time that they faced VP, but this is a clash of styles, and the slow, methodical CIS style just seems to win out against the fast-paced style of the Brazilians. I expect another sweep here for VP/Outsiders as they have been the much better team in 2022, especially with KSCERATO’s form dropping a bit.
- YEKINDAR has attempted the most opening duels (30.6%) on Outsiders across 15 maps played in 2022. Jame has had the most success in opening duels (70.2%) during that time. Both players have a massive ceiling at those rates.
- On Inferno, Jame leads Outsiders with a 1.46 Rating and 2.22 K/D ratio across two maps played in 2022.
- On Overpass, YEKINDAR leads Outsiders with a 1.51 Rating and 1.71 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
YEKINDAR ($9,200) | Jame ($8,600) | qikert ($5,400) | FL1T ($7,800) | buster ($6,600) | KSCERATO ($7,200)