G2 (World rank: #3) vs. MOUZ (World rank: #13) - 6:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-250) | MOUZ (+200)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+130) | MOUZ +1.5 (-155)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-150)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group A
- G2 - Rating at event: m0NESY 1.42 | huNter- 1.37 | AMANEK 1.35 | NiKo 1.30 | JACKZ 1.02
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.30 | m0NESY 1.16 | huNter- 1.13 | AMANEK 1.06 | JACKZ 0.95
- MOUZ - Rating at event: frozen 1.15 | Bymas 1.12 | torzsi 0.95 | NBK- 0.83 | dexter 0.73
- MOUZ - Rating past three months: Bymas 1.12 | frozen 1.11 | torzsi 1.10 | NBK- 0.94 | dexter
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in October 2021 at IEM Fall 2021 Europe, which was a best-of-one that G2 won 16-10 on Mirage, but both rosters have changed since. Frozen topped the leaderboards with 26 kills and a 1.43 Rating.
Map Projections:
MOUZ removes Dust2
G2 removes Overpass
MOUZ picks Nuke
G2 picks Mirage
MOUZ removes Inferno
G2 removes Vertigo
Ancient is left over
Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-1
G2 had a dominant first day of this event with a 1.29 team rating across two maps played, though they did have a soft match-up against LFO. AMANEK looked solid as a stand-in, but a team like MOUZ should do a better job of exploiting any potential weaknesses that G2 may face with their IGL, Aleksib, still out with COVID. MOUZ played their first series with their new lineup on Wednesday, and I expect Thursday to go better for them despite the tougher match-up since they should improve as a unit with each match played. Last month, I watched this MOUZ lineup play against G2 (NiKo, JACKZ, m0NESY, and Aleksib) in an FPL pick-up game and MOUZ won 16-10 on Mirage. A pick-up game is obviously pretty meaningless compared to an official LAN match, but I do think that MOUZ have the ability to match up well against G2, and perhaps that result gives them a boost of confidence. I still give G2 an edge in this series based on talent, but I wouldn’t be surprised if MOUZ stole a map and kept this competitive, especially with AMANEK still standing in for G2. My focus on Draftkings is G2, though I like the idea of using a player like Bymas or frozen as a one-off since this could be a close series.
- On Nuke, NiKo leads G2 with a 1.74 Rating and 1.95 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022.
- On Mirage, huNter- leads G2 with a 1.22 Rating and 1.18 K/D ratio across eight maps played in 2022.
- On Ancient, NiKo leads G2 with a 1.57 Rating and 1.54 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022.
- Bymas mentioned before the event that he was feeling “very confident” in his new roles within this MOUZ lineup, and he did well against Entropiq with a 1.12 Rating across two maps despite his team losing both maps. His price tag is only $4,800 on Draftkings, which just seems too cheap. Frozen was the top performer when these teams last met, so he could be another good option from MOUZ.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
NiKo ($9,000) | huNter- ($7,400) | m0NESY ($8,400) | Bymas ($4,800) | frozen ($7,000) | AMANEK ($6,400) | torzsi ($8,000)
Fnatic (World rank: Unranked) vs. Looking For Org (World rank: #94) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Fnatic (-640) | Looking For Org (+455)
Map Handicap: Fnatic -1.5 (-155) | Looking For Org +1.5 (+125)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+170) | Under 2.5 (-210)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group A
- Fnatic - Rating at event: mezii 0.89 | Banjo 0.70 | poizon 0.69 | Peppzor 0.64 | ALEX 0.41
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: mezii 1.07 | Peppzor 1.03 | Banjo 1.02 | poizon 0.99 | ALEX 0.92
- Looking For Org - Rating at event: sterling 0.90 | SaVage 0.86 | HaZR 0.84 | Liki 0.71 | ap0c 0.57
- Looking For Org - Rating past three months: sterling 1.08 | HaZR 1.05 | SaVage 1.00 | ap0c 0.97 | Liki 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Looking For Org removes Mirage
Fnatic removes Dust2
Looking For Org picks Nuke
Fnatic picks Inferno
Looking For Org removes Ancient
Fnatic removes Vertigo
Overpass is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Fnatic wins 2-1
Looking For Org have not performed well internationally, but if they were ever going to beat Fnatic, it would probably be right now. Due to COVID and roster changes, Fnatic are currently playing with two Academy players: Peppzor & Banjo. Additionally, poizon is the stand-in AWPer for this roster, which just leaves mezii & ALEX from the main roster. Sure, Fnatic are a (-640) moneyline favorite in this spot, but those odds continue to shift in LFO’s favor as I type this with Fnatic moneyline as high as (-750) at one point. Fnatic only managed to win 11 rounds in two maps played against NiP, and ALEX finished with a measly 10 kills total. Through the first day of the event, Fnatic have a lower team rating (0.67) than Looking For Org (0.78). LFO have a 2-8 W/L record across 10 maps played against international opponents in the past month, so I don’t have much confidence in them at ESL Pro League in general. However, there are so many question marks surrounding Fnatic that I think LFO have a chance to at least win a map just based on superior teamwork and chemistry. Mezii is still the best player on the server, while poizon can be an elite AWPer on his best days, though he has been inconsistent in the past. Fnatic are my main focus on Draftkings, but LFO are priced cheap enough that I think the risk of playing them for value could maybe pay off here, particularly sterling. Mezii is a must-play for me in this match-up.
- On Nuke, mezii leads Fnatic with a 1.10 Rating and 1.11 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022. On the Academy team, Peppzor played well in Fnatic Rising’s only map played on Nuke in 2022 with 24 kills and a 1.21 Rating.
- On Inferno, mezii leads Fnatic with a 1.12 Rating and 1.11 K/D ratio across nine maps played in 2022. On the Academy team, Banjo had a 1.14 Rating with Fnatic Rising across four maps played in 2022.
- On Overpass, mezii leads Fnatic with a 1.07 Rating and 1.11 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022.
- Looking For Org have a 2-8 W/L record in the past month, but sterling has still managed a 1.05 Rating and 1.05 K/D ratio during that time. HaZR is the only other member of LFO with a Rating of at least one (1.01).
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
mezii ($10,000) | Peppzor ($7,600) | poizon ($9,400) | sterling ($6,600) | Banjo ($8,600) | HaZR ($5,800) | ALEX ($6,200)