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BIG (World rank: #11) vs. Fnatic (World rank: Unranked) – 5:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: BIG (-210) | Fnatic (+170)

Map Handicap: BIG -1.5 (+140) | Fnatic +1.5 (-170)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for Pinnacle Cup Championship 2022 – Group A winners’ match. The winning team will advance to the upper bracket of the playoffs.
  • BIG - Rating at event: faveN 1.60 | Krimbo 1.45 | syrsoN 1.20 | tiziaN 1.18 | tabseN 0.92
  • BIG - Rating past three months: syrsoN 1.14 | tabseN  1.12 | faveN 1.11 | Krimbo 1.03 | tiziaN 0.92
  • Fnatic - Rating at event: nicoodoz 1.21 | KRIMZ  1.19 | mezii 0.98 | f0rest 0.97 | roeJ 0.80
  • Fnatic - Rating past three months: roeJ 1.19 | nicoodoz 1.12 | mezii 1.10 | KRIMZ  1.03 | f0rest 0.99

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.  

Map Projections:

Fnatic removes Ancient

BIG removes Inferno

Fnatic picks Mirage

BIG picks Dust2

Fnatic removes Nuke

BIG removes Overpass

Vertigo is left over

Prediction/Narrative: BIG wins 2-0.

BIG have continued to show good form since adding Krimbo and they now have a 26-13 W/L record across 39 maps played. Through one day of this event, BIG find themselves as the second highest-rated team with a 1.27 Team Rating, and faveN & Krimbo are both in the top-five for Player Rating. BIG’s map pool looks solid as well with at least a 57.1% win rate on Ancient, Mirage, Dust2, Nuke, and Overpass, plus their Vertigo doesn’t seem all that bad, they have just played tough opponents on that map. Fnatic pulled an upset against Heroic on Wednesday, but it’s much easier to do that in a best-of-one than a best-of-three. They are still playing with f0rest as a stand-in, and nicoodoz & roeJ have also only played one map with the team, so who knows what to expect. Fnatic would surely love to go back to Inferno after getting a win on that map against Heroic, but BIG should ban it to start. From there, Fnatic may look to play a map like Mirage that would be easy to play with a stand-in. They also might consider banning Dust2 since Copenhagen Flames used to avoid it and roeJ and nicoodoz have less matches on it, but that would be another easy map to slot in a stand-in. Either way, the map pool is unclear for Fnatic and just looks way too far in the favor of BIG no matter what Fnatic ultimately decides, so I see this as a likely 2-0 sweep for the Germans.  

  • On Mirage, tabseN leads BIG with a 1.12 Rating, while syrsoN leads with a 1.13 K/D ratio across seven maps played.
  • On Dust2, syrsoN leads BIG with a 1.35 Rating and 1.45 K/D ratio across eight maps played.
  • syrsoN leads this BIG lineup with 0.15 opening kills per round across 39 maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

syrsoN ($9,400) | tabseN ($8,600) | Krimbo ($6,600) | faveN ($7,400) | nicoodoz ($7,000) | tiziaN ($5,400)

 

Astralis (World rank: #13) vs. Imperial (World rank: #14) – 5:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-235) | Imperial (+190)

Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+130) | Imperial +1.5 (-160)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for Pinnacle Cup Championship 2022 – Group B winners’ match. The winning team will advance to the upper bracket of the playoffs.
  • Astralis - Rating at event: blameF 2.06 | Xyp9x  1.44 | Farlig 1.18 | gla1ve 1.09 | k0nfig 0.96
  • Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.26 | k0nfig 1.12 | Farlig 1.02 | gla1ve 0.96 | Xyp9x 0.95
  • Imperial - Rating at event: FalleN 1.47 | boltz  1.09 | VINI 1.06 | fer 0.77 | fnx 0.74
  • Imperial - Rating past three months: fer 1.21 | boltz 1.12 | FalleN 1.10 | VINI  1.07 | fnx 0.92

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.  

Map Projections:

Imperial removes Ancient

Astralis removes Inferno

Imperial picks Overpass

Astralis picks Nuke

Imperial removes Vertigo

Astralis removes Dust2

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1.

Astralis had an easy match-up against EG.PA on the first day of this event, but the Danes still showed up in a big way with a dominant 16-6 win on Overpass. Astralis are currently the highest-rated team at the event with 1.35 Team Rating, and blameF leads all players with an incredible 2.06 Rating. Pinnacle Cup Championship 2022 certainly is not the biggest event of the year, but it could be a huge proof-of-concept for an Astralis lineup that has looked good at times but hasn’t yet shown consistency. The Danish IGL, gla1ve, said it himself in an interview on Monday when he stated “this could be the thing that would kick-start us” after taking down EG.PA. Astralis view this event as a huge opportunity to prove that this lineup can be elite, and that gives me confidence in backing them. As for Imperial, I view them as trending in the opposite direction. Sure, they did also get a win to open the event, but they have now lost five out of seven maps played since PGL Major Antwerp 2022, and their only wins have come against Finest & Northern Forces – not exactly the most impressive opponents to beat. Fer is often the key to Imperial winning big matches and he looked to be in poor form on Wednesday, which is just another reason that Imperial might struggle in this more difficult match-up. The map bans should be key here since Imperial should take out Astralis’ most played map, Ancient, and Astralis should do the same to Imperial by taking out the Brazilians’ most played map, Inferno. Imperial have a 9-1 W/L record on Overpass, and they are tough to beat on that map, but the rest of the map pool doesn’t look overly impressive for them once Inferno is removed. All things considered, I think Astralis should come out on top in this spot, but I could still see this series going three maps.   

  • On Overpass, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.44 Rating and 1.57 K/D ratio across seven maps played.
  • On Nuke, k0nfig leads Astralis with a 1.26 Rating, while blameF leads with a 1.28 K/D ratio across 11 maps played.
  • On Mirage, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.65 Rating and 2.24 K/D ratio across five maps played.
  • blameF & k0nfig lead this Astralis lineup with 0.13 opening kills per round across 51 maps played. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

blameF ($9,200) | k0nfig ($8,400) | gla1ve ($6,400) | Farlig ($7,200) | Xyp9x ($5,800) | FalleN ($6,000) | fer ($7,800) | VINI ($5,600) 

 

*Top Stacks: BIG, Astralis

*Top Captains: blameF, syrsoN, k0nfig, tabseN, fer

*Top Value: Krimbo, gla1ve, faveN, Farlig, Xyp9x, FalleN, nicoodoz, tiziaN, VINI