Nemiga (World rank: #52) vs. Akuma (World rank: #22)
Moneyline Odds: Nemiga (-250) | Akuma (+185)
Map Handicap: N/A
Map Total: N/A
Analysis:
I am not even going to go through any stats for this series because it appears that SENSEi and j3kie have left Akuma and there is a chance that this series is just a forfeit. We might get confirmed news closer to lock, but a forfeit means no fantasy points would be accrued, so I do not want to risk any of my lineups with exposure to either of these teams for now. I would expect Nemiga to win easily if this series does end up being played, but I would be really cautious here. I recommend completely fading this one.
100PingGods (World rank: #49) vs. Spirit (World rank: #15)
Moneyline Odds: 100PG (+455) | Spirit (-640)
Map Handicap: 100PG +1.5 (+130) | Spirit -1.5 (-160)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+180) | Under 2.5 (-225)
- This is a best-of-three series for group stage of StarLadder CIS RMR 2021 Group B.
- 100PG - Rating at event: w1nt3r 1.06 | icem4N 1.01 | smiley 1.01 | sorrow 0.92 | dukefissura 0.91
- 100PG - Rating past three months: smiley 1.08 | dukefissura 1.06 | w1nter 1.00 | icem4N 0.98 | sorrow 0.95
- Spirit - Rating at event: mir 1.35 | magixx 1.11 | degster 1.07 | sdy 1.06 | chopper 1.00
- Spirit - Rating past three months: mir 1.19 | degster 1.11 | sdy 1.10 | magixx 1.04 | chopper 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Analysis:
Mir has been the MVP of this tournament so far, and Draftkings has now priced him accordingly as the highest priced player on the slate. I still think it is worth paying up for him if possible since he is playing at such a high level, and he has been so consistent. 100PingGods do not have an easy path to success here since they know that they should not pick Dust2 against Spirit, though they could hope to float it through as the decider map. 100PG could try to go for a map like Inferno or Ancient, but either way I think Spirit 2-0 makes the most sense here based on how good this team currently looks. Degster and sdy are priced up now on this slate so they are not locks, but both look solid. Magixx looks like a fine play at $7,400 and chopper is more of a punt play at $6,200 since he is so inconsistent. You could sneak one of these 100PG players into your lineup, but I think it would be wise to just stick to Spirit. Smiley, dukefissura and w1nt3r could maybe be decent values, but they are not priorities for me. 100PG was playing with a stand-in for dukefissura on Tuesday at another event, but that should not be the case here as far as I know. Spirit makes for a solid stack, but the pricing makes things difficult. My favorite play here is just to stick Mir into your lineup.
Virtus.pro (World rank: #6) vs. K23 (World rank: #38)
Moneyline Odds: VP (-275) | K23 (+215)
Map Handicap: VP -1.5 (+120) | K23 +1.5 (-145)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-155)
- This is a best-of-three series for group stage of StarLadder CIS RMR 2021 Group B.
- VP - Rating at event: Jame 1.20 | YEKINDAR 1.13 | Qikert 1.07 | buster 0.97 | SANJI 0.80
- VP - Rating past three months: Jame 1.17 | YEKINDAR 1.04 | Qikert 1.02 | buster 0.99 | SANJI 0.90
- K23 - Rating at event: mou 1.12 | n0rb3r7 0.97 | neaLaN 0.94 | fame 0.94 | adreN 0.81
- K23 - Rating past three months: n0rb3r7 1.18| mou 1.11 | fame 1.11 | neaLaN 0.99 | adreN 0.96
H2H Data:
- These teams last faced on May 13th at EPIC League CIS 2021 and VP won the series 2-0 (16-10 Mirage / 16-10 Dust2). Jame and YEKINDAR combined for 99 kills across two maps with 51 and 48, respectively.
Analysis:
The odds do not give K23 much of a chance to win this series, but I think this will be a really close series. K23 just swept Entropiq 2-0 on Tuesday, and Spirit is yet to pick up a win in this tournament with losses to 100PingGods and Spirit. VP will want to ban Nuke, which would leave Dust2 open for K23 to pick. That map makes even more sense for them once we consider that VP have lost it their last five times in a row. The rest of the map pool still looks strong for K23 as well, so I do consider them a live underdog here. We saw fame find good form on Tuesday, though I think mou is the best value on K23 at only $5,600. N0rb3r7 is a bit pricey at $7,200 but I still think he could be in for a big day. AdreN and neaLaN are not priorities but I think they are reasonable to get to as well. As for VP, I am not going to stack them much since they are priced up on this slate and I do not think this match up will be as easy for them as the odds make it seem. Jame should still be solid no matter what happens so I would not hesitate to put him into a lineup, but the rest of VP looks just okay. Qikert would probably be my next favorite play based on pricing and projected maps with Dust2 likely. Overall though I think the best move here would be to take some of the value on the K23 side of things.
forZe (World rank: #16) vs. NAVI (World rank: #2)
Moneyline Odds: forZe (+255) | NAVI (-325)
Map Handicap: forZe +1.5 (-150) | NAVI -1.5 (+125)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for group stage of StarLadder CIS RMR 2021 Group A.
- forZe - Rating at event: Jerry 1.13 | FL1T 1.04 | almazer 1.02 | KENSI 0.99 | zorte 0.96
- forZe - Rating past three months: FL1T 1.17 | zorte 1.11 | Jerry 1.06 | almazer 1.05 | KENSI 1.03
- NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.32 | B1T 1.31 | electronic 1.26 | Boombl4 1.10 | Perfecto 1.04
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.31 | electronic 1.11 | B1T 1.06 | Perfecto 1.02 | Boombl4 0.95
H2H Data:
These teams last faced on May 26th at EPIC League CIS 2021 and NAVI swept 2-0 (16-11 Dust2 / 16-4 Mirage). Electronic and s1mple led the way with 43 kills each across two maps.
Analysis:
I thought that forZe would have a chance on Mirage against Gambit on Tuesday, but then they picked Ancient instead and lost 12-16. We will see what they decide for their map pick here, but either way I think they could win a map against NAVI, especially Mirage if we do see it this time. Still, NAVI is the stronger team and they should win out in a best-of-three. I think NAVI 2-1 makes the most sense as the outcome here though. NAVI’s series against Akuma was not very competitive which meant s1mple did not have to do much, but I think he should have a monster performance in this spot since his team will be relying on him more. B1T and electronic are both cheap enough that I really like getting to them, though I am not sure a three stack from NAVI makes much sense given this could be somewhat of a tight series. S1mple is the priority for me for sure and I think he is a lock at $9,600. I would put him at captain as much as possible on this slate. I almost always like s1mple for DFS, but I like him even more on this slate. I think pairing him with either electronic or B1T could work really well. Perfecto looks okay but he is not my favorite value play on the slate. I do not like Boombl4 as a punt play here either. FL1T, zorte, and Jerry are all potential plays on forZe, but they are not really cheap enough for me to consider them since I think NAVI should ultimately win this series.
**Tony’s core plays to build your lineups around**: s1mple, mir
**Favorite Stacks: NAVI, Spirit
*Other captain options: electronic, B1T, degster, sdy, mou, Jame
*Other value options: n0rb3r7, magixx, fame, Perfecto, neaLaN, AdreN