*Note: The first LAN CS:GO event of the year is here! This is a LAN studio event, so there is not a live audience yet, but the teams will finally be back playing in person. These are also best-of-one series to start, which can make lineup construction tricky on Draftkings. This is an exciting event for Counter-Strike, but my advice would be to maybe consider limiting your DFS action a bit for this first day given the craziness of best-of-ones and also the added element of LAN.
Renegades (World rank: #50) vs. Vitality (World rank: #9)
Moneyline Odds: Renegades (+290) | Vitality (-375)
Map Handicap: Renegades +5.5 rounds (-130) | Vitality -5.5 rounds (+105)
- This is a best-of-one series for the upper bracket round of 16 for the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament.
- Renegades - Rating past three months: INS 1.34 | Hatz 1.22 | Sico 1.19 | aliStair 1.18 | malta 1.17
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.32 | misutaaa 1.10 | shox 1.02 | apEX 1.01 | Kyojin 0.98
Analysis:
Renegades obviously have impressive stats, but we have to consider their competition (or lack thereof) in the Oceania region. In matches played against Top 50 teams in 2021, Renegades have a 4-12 W/L record across 16 maps played, with two of those wins coming against TeamOne who was barely in the top 50 at #48. Their other two wins were against BIG on a rare bad day for XANTARES where he was the lowest rated player on the entire server, so I am not expecting much from this team based on how they have looked in the past. INS did have a 1.08 rating across those 16 maps played and would be the one player to target on Renegades, but I am expecting Vitality to win here, and the French team would be my focus for DFS. ZywOo is expensive as always, but he should be a really safe play with plenty of upside. Misutaaa has been solid lately, but I think he costs too much for this slate. Shox is actually my favorite option on the team at $8,000. He has seen a decline in his stats in the past few months, but I think that he has extra upside with this being a LAN event given his experience, and his salary is reasonable on Draftkings. ApEX and Kyojin look like fine value plays but are not priorities for me on this slate. Anything can happen in a best-of-one, and I am not completely sold on this Vitality roster yet, but I think they will be the much better team in this series once they settle in.
OG (World rank: #13) vs. TeamOne (World rank: #51)
Moneyline Odds: OG (-430) | TeamOne (+325)
Map Handicap: OG -5.5 rounds (-115) | TeamOne +5.5 rounds (-110)
- This is a best-of-one series for the upper bracket round of 16 for the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament.
- OG - Rating past three months: mantuu 1.22 | valde 1.12 | flameZ 1.12 | Aleksib 1.07 | niko 1.00
- TeamOne - Rating past three months: malbsMd 1.10 | Maluk3 1.03 | pesadelo 1.02 | prt 1.01 | xns 0.93
Analysis:
Nothing is guaranteed with best-of-ones, but OG look like the safest team on the slate behind only Complexity. OG performed much better at bootcamp when playing online events, so I think LAN should be a favorable situation for them. Against top 50 teams, TeamOne has a 6-11 W/L record across 17 maps played. Their two series wins against Extra Salt are definitely something to note, but we still have not seen enough from them against top teams to think that they would have a chance here against OG. Mantuu has been on fire lately, but I think OG should win this one pretty easily so I would rather save salary with the value options. Valde is $800 cheaper than mantuu and can just as easily top frag, and flameZ is even more appealing than both of them at only $8,000. My favorite play here would actually be niko at $6,000, but there is obvious risk since he has been the lowest rated player on the team. Still, we know his aim is incredible and I think this price is just way too low for him in this spot. Aleksib looks like a really strong play at $7,200 as well. TeamOne is a complete fade for me, but MalbsMd and Maluk3 would be the only two players I would consider if you wanted to go that direction. I think OG makes for a great stack on this slate because I love the value options.
Sprout (World rank: #41) vs. BIG (World rank: #10)
Moneyline Odds: Sprout (+175) | BIG (-220)
Map Handicap: Sprout +3.5 rounds (-110) | BIG -3.5 rounds (-115)
- This is a best-of-one series for the upper bracket round of 16 for the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament.
- Sprout - Rating past three months: faveN 1.18 | slaxz- 1.06 | kressy 1.02 | Spiidi 0.95 | denis 0.95
- BIG - Rating past three months: XANTARES 1.13 | syrsoN 1.11 | tabseN 1.07 | k1to 0.96 | tiziaN 0.94
Analysis:
This series is a German derby, which means this could be a really competitive series. BIG is clearly the more talented team, but it would not surprise me to see Sprout keep things close. These teams played each other at Flashpoint 3 back in May, and the series went to three maps with two of them going to overtime. Sprout even beat BIG on Dust2, which has been one of BIG’s best maps. XANTARES led the way with 88 kills across three maps, but syrsoN, faveN, kressy, and slaxz- all had positive kill/death ratios. SyrsoN and k1to previously played for Sprout, so a revenge narrative is something you could look to if you want. I do not really like stacking either team from this series because it seems too risky, but then again this could be the match-up that goes to triple overtime, and all of the plays just smash for DFS. FaveN looks like the best play from this series at $7,000, but I think XANTARES is a great option as well if you could fit his salary into your lineup. Nothing about this match-up feels safe to me though, so I would not put all of my eggs into either team's basket.
Evil Geniuses (World rank: #21) vs. FaZe (World rank: #36)
Moneyline Odds: Evil Geniuses (-110) | FaZe (-115)
Map Handicap: Evil Geniuses +2.5 rounds (-150) | FaZe -2.5 rounds (-125)
- This is a best-of-one series for the upper bracket round of 16 for the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament.
- EG - Rating past three months: oBo 1.09 | MICHU 0.98 | Brehze 0.97 | CeRq 0.93 | stanislaw 0.83
- FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.11 | broky 1.09 | rain 0.97 | olofmeister 0.93 | karrigan 0.86
Analysis:
Both of these teams are still looking to find consistent success with their new rosters. EG seemed to find some momentum at IEM Summer with wins against Spirit and Heroic, as well as taking a map against OG. They ended up having to face Gambit, so their tournament run was cut short as to be expected. FaZe have only played five series with olofmeister back in the lineup, and three of them were at the Gamers Without Borders charity tournament, so we still have not seen their full potential with this current roster. They do also have a lot of experienced players which could help them in this LAN environment. The odds have this series as a coinflip, but it seems to be a crucial spot for DFS based on the pricing so we will want to pick a side because everybody is just too cheap. My favorite play from this series would be to stack Twistzz and broky because they are the most reliable options on their team, and I lean towards FaZe winning here. For Evil Geniuses, oBo looks like a strong play, but I think Brehze would be the best option on EG at only $6,800. We have seen his form dip in recent months, but Draftkings has now priced him down accordingly so there is upside if he can get back to the form that we know he is capable of. MICHU and CeRq both look fine as well but they are not priorities for me on this slate. Either way, you will probably want some exposure to this series because there are so many strong value plays and one or two of them is bound to have a big day.
Complexity (World rank: #12) vs. ViCi (World rank: #148)
Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-545) | ViCi (+400)
Map Handicap: Complexity -6.5 rounds (Even) | ViCi +6.5 rounds (-125)
- This is a best-of-one series for the upper bracket round of 16 for the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament.
- Complexity - Rating past three months: k0nfig 1.16 | blameF 1.16 | jks 1.05 | poizon 1.00 | RUSH 0.88
- ViCi - Rating past three months: JamYoung 1.26 | Kaze 1.21 | zhokiNg 1.15 | aumaN 1.10 | advent 0.91
Analysis:
Prior to Draftkings releasing their pricing for Tuesday, I made a note that k0nfig looked like one of the strongest plays, so I was a little disappointed to see him as the most expensive player on the slate. Still, there are so many value options on this slate that I think k0nfig is worth locking in if you can fit him. Complexity look like the safest team to stack on the entire slate, and they should dominate here. ViCi have not played much in 2021 so we do not know how they will look against this level of competition, but I am not really going to give them the benefit of the doubt because they should be outclassed here no matter what. JamYoung is the only option I would consider on ViCi, but they are a complete fade for me, and Complexity looks like a far superior option. K0nfig has been playing at a high level lately, and his aggressive style gives him the highest ceiling on this team, so I will get to him as much as possible. BlameF also looks like a really safe option with upside, but it would be tough to pair him with k0nfig based on salary, and I prefer k0nfig. Jks, poizon and RUSH are all in play for me, with poizon being my favorite option of the three.
Favorite Stacks: Complexity, OG, Vitality, FaZe
Favorite Captain Plays: k0nfig, ZyWOo, Twistzz, shox, flameZ, XANTARES, broky
Favorite Value Plays: niko, Aleksib, faveN, Brehze, poizon
Favorite Roster Construction: 2-2-1-1